Cmc Markets Share Discussion Threads

[undervaluedassets] 03/9/2021 07:09

So volatile markets never return? Of course they do.

Like long term weather forecasting, financial markets cannot be called; And CMC can no more predict the volatility of markets more than anyone else can.

CMC has simply and appropriately reported the state of markets as they have found them. In July they looked buoyant. Through August and right now less so.

But the idea that markets are never volatile again and that abundant short term trading does not resume is clearly wrong.

In a few years time, the current share price will be seen for what it is. An opportunity.

[12toes] 03/9/2021 00:20

Cruddas owns 57% you moron

[marktime1231] 02/9/2021 22:06

OK am out, but hang on their revenue is net operating income, is ebitda except for adjusting how much they made or lost trading and hedging client positions. Good luck trying to understand what the figures are or could mean, they are clueless so what chance have we.

Terrific optimism from those hoping this was going to bounce back today or in a few days or ... the belief that things are so bad they can't get any worse is the stuff of gutters. No wonder this stock has traded on such weak p/e. Cruddas owns more than 50% no-one else more than 5% it is more likely we will see Shergar again than a bid to the rescue. If you are hanging on all the luck you will need it.

[nigelpm] 02/9/2021 22:04

Yes. That's roughly in line with my calcs but given summer period I'm not overly concerned

[rcturner2] 02/9/2021 21:46

There is something odd about the statement. One month ago they were predicting 330m+ for profit. Now they are predicting 250-270m. Yet when they made the 330m+ prediction they already had 4 months figures for the current year, so reasonable to assume that they made 110m in those 4 months (approx 25m a month). For the other 8 months to now add up to 140m profit in August must have dropped to about 15m, so a pretty significant drop.

[pyemckay] 02/9/2021 20:05

ok, fair point, I was trying to calculate quickly.

[saurish] 02/9/2021 19:49

250-280m forecast is for net operating income, not revenue.

[pj0077] 02/9/2021 19:40

There may be buyers but who is the seller? Founding shareholder Lord Cruddas owns 57% of the company & there's no indication that he's looking for an exit.

[pyemckay] 02/9/2021 19:39

lol. it was forecast 330m revenue for 100m profit =36eps
assume middle of range 250-280mforecast
250 rev = 20m profit. 7.2eps
265 rev = 35m profit = 12p.eps.
280 rev = 50m profit =18eps

The downside is still there imo. I havent added in extra costs.

10pEPS looks generous imo.


I was a holder but am out with a 30% loss .

[volvo] 02/9/2021 19:36

As mentioned earlier....people watch the stock market gyrations, CMC in its current position is an ideal buy out candidate, mega cash generative, buy with confidence, because people will happily take this out

[growthpotential] 02/9/2021 19:23

Dude, how are you getting to that figure? It is atleast 30p EPS as a minimum which is expected

[pyemckay] 02/9/2021 19:05

I calculate about 10-12p EPS based on the estimates of turnover. Thats quite a drop. No hurry to get back in yet.

[big_cat] 02/9/2021 15:42

IG is down 10% based on CMC profit warning. IMHO it is a better quality stock thus a better buy than CMC

[riverman77] 02/9/2021 15:42

The key point is they've said revenue will fall to 250-280 IF market conditions remain as they are for the next 7 months. Markets are currently very subdued so I think this is very unlikely, although i guess not impossible. It would be like an ice cream company that has had a bad couple of months because of wet weather, and then giving guidance on the assumption that it rains for the next 7 months.

[growthpotential] 02/9/2021 15:26

Luckily this daily move hasn't even hit my overall portfolio. I'm actually well up on the day! Why would anyone sell now, the floor value must be around this mark, surely!

[nigelpm] 02/9/2021 15:22

I think sometimes in business unusual stuff does happen - I agree they shouldn't have been so confident of £330m on 29th July but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.

[brucie5] 02/9/2021 14:56

I'm out. Like RCT I might be tempted back in if the share price hits silly levels, with a dividend to match. Taken the hit, but it's called a stop loss.

[wall street trader] 02/9/2021 12:33

I've bought some today but normally day three of a profit warning is the day to buy - I'm gonna go in much bigger if it dips down then

[prokartace] 02/9/2021 12:06

imastu

You cannot compare to 2020 figures. Costs will be much higher in the current FY so net profit on similar turnover will be much lower

[big_cat] 02/9/2021 12:02

The fall makes it an attractive proposal for a takeover. Hold.

[marktime1231] 02/9/2021 11:42

A ridiculous reversal. From forecasting a slight beat to profits halving in just 5 weeks, hopeless and untrustworthy stewardship of a dodgy business. I don't care if they have gone from over-optimisim to doing themselves down, what hope that returning volatility restores this outlook based on the doldrums. For all we know they might have hedged and traded away first quarter gains, the interims are going to be awful. Certainly no place for this in an income portfolio.

Pleased I trimmed in the 400's. I am out out.

[its the oxman] 02/9/2021 11:05

Yes, as trustworthy as any from my experience, nobody likes bad news and moderation in growth was already flagged. Ok it's got worse but more than in the price. What I like is it's quality business and it's time will come again on any market trauma which is inevitable. Having sold steadily on way up I'm happy to add now.

[brucie5] 02/9/2021 11:05

Ouch. Now, decisions, decisions.
So highly rated by Stocko, too.

[shanklin] 02/9/2021 10:01

But can you really trust management to give you accurate timely information? Surely they should have said something about this in the TS on 29-Jul-21