Clarkson Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 30/8/2018 22:52

sb888 - its just a test thread - i was trying to learn how to set up a new thread and selected CKN to do this. I had hoped to be able to delete it after i'd finished - but have been unable to work out how to do that. Any suggestions would be welcome.


NTV - i get my vessel charter rate data from contacts at CKN and have an account with Lloyds List.

[ntv] 26/8/2018 12:27

hi MT
where do you get the imfo about current tanker rates
I found BDI ok
tia NTV

[sb888] 23/8/2018 18:03

Your posts are top class, but why start another thread?

[richard4796] 21/8/2018 13:20

Mount T thank you for a great post. Shame some threads on other share/posts are not as good as yours. Some seem to get quite emotional and arguments ensue.

Knowledgeable, logical and transparent in sharing this learnt knowledge. This is what forums should be about. Thank you!

[mount teide] 21/8/2018 10:58

Like every shipping/port sector manager in the industry from the 1970's i have the scars of three long term, shipping and commodity boom/bust cycles on my back.

Clarkson are the world's largest shipbroker - they are the Shell or Apple of their respective sectors.

No other quoted broker has come close to replicating Clarksons share price performance since the start of the 2000-2008 recovery stage of the last shipping/commodity cycle to the early years of the recovery stage of this new business cycle - £0.90 to £28.00 plus 18 years of dividends.

AIMHO/DYOR

[sb888] 16/8/2018 17:04

I like mount Teide. Seems to know what he is on about

[bolador] 14/8/2018 09:28

Mount Teide

Thanks for a very interesting post. I note your share price prediction for Clarkson.
You obviously have detailed knowledge of this sector and I would like to know if you have worked or do work in this industry. Do you consider Clarkson the best of the bunch quoted in London ?

[mount teide] 13/8/2018 12:17

As expected, with the Baltic Dry Index rising close to 50% since Q1/2018, the world's largest shipbroker Clarkson's has experienced a stronger Q2/2018 across most of its main shipbroking and sale&purchase markets.

The oil tanker market although still the exception is now seeing green shoots, moving up strongly off multi year lows; vessel charter rates have increased by over 100% since the start of Q3/2018 which should bode well for H2/2018 and 2019.

Likewise the oil services sector, also recently made a bottom and entered a new cyclical recovery phase following a brutal 5 year recession which brought the industry to its knees.

Clarkson's highly expensive takeover of Platou some 3 years ago - a specialist oil tanker and oil services sector shipbroker - could not have been more badly judged/timed but, following an awful post acquisition period should now start to generate better news and results going forward. Oil tanker rates dropped over 10 fold peak to trough following Clarkson's takeover of Platou and the oil services sector completely collapsed, with large sections of many major fleets put in to long term lay-up.

With many sectors of the shipping markets forecast to be at/close to a demand/supply balance for the first time in a nearly a decade in 2019, I'm maintaining my earlier target of a £100 Clarkson share price by 2023/25 as the shipping markets continue to strengthen into this new shipping /commodity cycle recovery stage, which like all previous recovery stages will come with the high stomach churning volatility these markets are renown for.

The shipping and commodity markets may not be for the fainthearted, widows or orphans perhaps - but for those with the constitution to withstand the volatility, with careful stock selection the once in every 15-20 year recovery/boom stage of these long term, highly cyclical markets offer investors the opportunity of tremendous multi year outperformance compared to the wider market indexes.

[deadly] 13/8/2018 10:54

poor results but better than expected?

[jtcod] 13/8/2018 08:08

Sorry wrong thread

[mount teide] 05/7/2018 08:47

The Baltic Dry Index has moved in a completely different direction to the industrial metals markets since the 'trade war' rhetoric ramped up at beginning of June. Unlike the metals markets, as a result of its size and scope the BDI is a market that is almost impossible to manipulate in any meaningful way and is therefore closest to a bellwether for the global economy.

The BDI is a measure of the cost of transporting commodities and finished goods - 95% of which as some point see the bottom of a ship's cargo holds.

The BDI has risen 50% since the beginning of June from 1,042 to 1,567 - up 440% from the 2016 lows. This move is completely opposite to what would have been expected were the reports of the risks of a trade war and slowing global economy as significant as is being made out in some quarters.

[richard4796] 03/7/2018 08:50

Does anyone currently have a stake in this company? I was hoping it was going to continue to climb and didn't see the drop coming.

[shalder] 02/7/2018 14:56

I think some Platou people who acquired CKN shares through the takeover have been selling recently.

Plus there will be some concern re risks of a global trade war impacting on shipping trade volumes/rates.

[richard4796] 02/7/2018 13:37

well it has taken a nose dive. any ideas?

[mount teide] 28/4/2018 10:30

BDI has rebounded very strongly from the latest rising chart low made in the second week of April, and is now up 43% in just two weeks.


Apologies for describing Stephen Gordon, the author of the article above, as a señior Analyst at Clarksons, he is in fact now the Managing Director of Clarkson's highly regarded Research Services Division.

[spob] 23/4/2018 12:54

This had gotten way ahead of itself regardless of any profit warning

and that's the big risk with a high rating.

Any setback and the stock gets hammered

[mount teide] 23/4/2018 12:34

Shnaklin - Andi Case is imo the least impressive CEO they have had over the last 20 years - fortunately, shareholders continue to benefit from a very strong group of NED's with long industry experience.

Would not surprise me if the Chairman is currently sounding out a replacement for Mr Case, in light of the his embarrassing about turn since the bullish outlook given to the Market last month.

[shalder] 23/4/2018 12:26

I suspect also that USD weakness v Sterling may also be producing a material drag on the bottom line, to a greater extent than previously assumed.

MT thanks for the above analysis which is most helpful.

[shanklin] 23/4/2018 12:18

MT, Management certainly don't seem to be open and honest.