Clarkson Share Discussion Threads

[tiswas] 23/4/2018 07:15

I had a look at it but thought a tad expensive. Managerial reputation in tatters I would think after positive outlook with results 6 weeks ago?

[shanklin] 23/4/2018 06:17

Shame it was something I did nothing about.

[tiswas] 23/4/2018 06:15

Good spot Shanklin - something else going on in terms of profit warning. Watch out below. Tis. No holding.

[shanklin] 29/3/2018 15:02

Weakness here down to Trump's tariff threats and the (hopefully) temporary change of chairman or is something else going on?

[mount teide] 12/3/2018 22:48

Johnv - CKN v BMS Posted this analysis on the BMS thread a while back - to help other posters understand the relative underperformance of BMS as a result of being heavily weighted towards the oil shipping and service sectors, whose recovery is still in the very earliest of stages. 'A tale of two shipbrokers! Being heavily overweight in the oil tanker and oil service sector did BMS no favours after tanker rates weakened in mid 2016 just as a surge of new capacity hit the sector. The comparison with sector heavyweight Clarksons more diversified shipbroking approach is stark. Since mid 2016 the relative share price performance is astonishing considering they both operate in the same industry: -40% BMS +75% CKN £1000 put in CKN is now worth £1750, while in BMS £600. Nevertheless, I suspect the strengthening oil price from Q4/2017 onwards should now be generating a modest but very welcome recovery at BMS.'

[mount teide] 12/3/2018 15:34

Walbrrok 'So, why the shares expensive? When it was a growth company in the late 90s and in early 2000s, earnings were growing at double digit (around 10%-12%) when PE multiple is around 10 times. After 2010, earnings growth slowed to 4%, and PE is trading at 30 times and forward-PE of 27 times in 2018!' From: 2000 to 2008 - BDI was in recovery/boom mode following an 8 year sector recession 2008 to 2016 - BDI fell an astonishing 98% in the deepest recession to hit the shipping industry since the Great Depression. 2016 to est 2023-2025 BDI is currently in the early stages of the next cyclical recovery/boom period. BDI is currently up around 350% from the all time 2016 low but still MORE than 90% below its 2008 all time high. Clarksons business, although now well diversified compared to 2000- 2008, still generates the overwhelming majority of its income from shipbroking and so its growth is directly linked to the performance of the BDI( Clarksons shipbroking revenue is mostly generated from earning a fixed percentage of each ship charter). Current market valuation - market is increasingly pricing in the expectation that the BDI (rates at which shipping is chartered out at) will appreciate rapidly over the years ahead - since the serious vessel oversupply issue which has largely been responsible for decimating charter rates over the last 8 years, is forecast to come to an end over the next 12 months or so.

[mount teide] 12/3/2018 15:09

johns - think both will do very well over a 5 year outlook. CKN/BMS - With regard to risk/reward - its not comparing like with like. One is the global industry leader(CKN) - a well diversified global shipbroker The other a second tier broker(BMS) - heavy oil industry weighting(oil tanker and oil service sectors). Currently, recovery of the oil tanker and oil service sectors is lagging the rest of the shipping industry - i would expect this situation to continue well into next year. Hold a very large long term position in CKN which i added heavily to last year - sold a modest position in BMS last year and recycled it into CKN after becoming concerned BMS's oil sector weighting might act as a drag on the pace of recovery.

[bobmonkeyhouse] 12/3/2018 15:07

Great company. it will not drop to 22 quid

[walbrock82] 12/3/2018 14:54

Clarkson’s results are as expected, with sales slightly higher than expected, but profits lower. (Please ignore the adjusted profits because acquisition costs are part of doing business, not a one-off expense!) The real question is: “Are the shares expensive at current valuation?” As a value investor, yes, it is. Should you be selling the shares? Yes, but on a short-term basis. So, why the shares expensive? When it was a growth company in the late 90s and in early 2000s, earnings were growing at double digit (around 10%-12%) when PE multiple is around 10 times. After 2010, earnings growth slowed to 4%, and PE is trading at 30 times and forward-PE of 27 times in 2018! Therefore, a CORRECTION of 30%-35% is reasonable which will take the shares to £22 per share or PE of 20 times. For more reasons, why Clarkson will see its shares fall http://bit.ly/2FMPYPJ

[johnv] 06/3/2018 14:47

MT, which is the better risk/reward here ckn or bms?

[mount teide] 05/3/2018 10:22

US oil exports to the Far East to boots Tanker Sector demand. US Shale Oil And Shipping: Expect The Unexpected? - Clarksons Research 28 Feb 2018 hTTp://www.clarksons.net/archive/imagelib/2018-02-23_upload_2507154_SIW%201311.png Sometimes in shipping, as in life, things come along that nobody really expects. US shale/tight oil production, which was barely on the radar ten years ago, seems to be one of those things. The most recent news, of US crude being unloaded in the Middle East and of output passing 1970s levels, has not come entirely out of the blue. But imagine saying ten years ago that the USA could soon be a net oil exporter... Ancien Régime Prior to 2017, the last time US total crude oil production stood at over 10m bpd was in the early 1970s, after which output was in decline for forty years. The early 1970s also saw the Yom Kippur War, the Arab Oil Embargo and US motorists queuing to fill up at gas stations where pump prices had quadrupled in under a year. Thus the 1975 US crude export ban and the quest for energy independence that (so far) has proved elusive. In fact, a decade ago, US seaborne crude imports stood at almost 8m bpd, equal to 20% of global seaborne crude imports and 40% of US oil consumption. Only in the area of oil products was a US export sector able to develop, based on intra-Americas exports and the transatlantic arbitrage of American and European refinery slates, with the US importing gasoline and exporting gas oils from its complex Gulf Coast refineries. The Shale Revolution Begins Things began to change on the US crude front in the late 2000s. This was due to the shale revolution enabled by advances in “fracking” and related technologies. US tight crude output increased by 3.4m bpd from 2010 to 2014 (almost 80% of the net increase in oil production globally in that time) and was a key factor in the oil price downturn beginning in 2014. The significant stimulus US shale has been giving to seaborne LPG and LNG trades is well documented. But for a while, shale oil production was a negative for shipping, displacing imports. In late 2015 though, the crude export ban was lifted. Small volumes of semi-processed condensate had already been exported under technicalities, but this opened the floodgates. US seaborne crude exports tripled in 2017 and are projected to hit 1.5m bpd in 2018 (4% of the global total). Given the need to blend lighter shale oil with heavy grades in US refineries, US oil imports look likely to remain a feature of seaborne trade. But talk is now all about rising US oil exports (e.g. to the Far East) creating tonne-mile demand. The Revolution Continues? During the downturn, shale has surprised most observers by its resilience, with oil price breakevens in many plays (notably in the Permian) falling greatly. Combined with firming oil prices, this has seen US tight oil output grow by 1.4m bpd from the Q3 2015 trough, to stand at almost 6.5m bpd - 65% of US total crude output. The consensus view is for further firm growth in 2018 and 2019 too, with a plateau not being reached until c.2025 (though shale has a history of surprising on the upside). So while there remain uncertainties related to oil prices and resource potential, the shale revolution looks here to stay. Clearly this could have further significant implications for seaborne oil trades. And looking back a decade, it just goes to show, not even the wisest heads can see some things coming.

[mount teide] 23/2/2018 16:22

Strong chart looking ready for the next leg up.

[mount teide] 30/11/2017 00:16

Cyber Attack - Telegraph says their security systems were breached earlier in the month yet, they waited until today to reveal it. Suggests they may have taken a calculated risk that the hackers would not release any stolen information before Clarksons notified the market and their clients, to give Management the time to investigate the breach and beef up their computer system security. Hmmmm.

[dondee] 17/10/2017 15:00

Now around £29-80p

[mount teide] 05/6/2017 21:20

In the Euroclear Short Report for the End of May 2017, of the 4.3% short position in Clarksons, it contained no disclosable positions(greater than 0.5%). S/P decline from the highs earlier this year, seems to be following the pullback in the BDI, after it tripled from the 2016 lows.

[robcoo] 15/3/2017 11:08

I'm surprised at the lack of a following for CKN. It and IMB have been my best performing shares over the years by some way. CKN has appreciated by 700%, IMB rather more. Makes up for some disasters elsewhere.

[cosimodo] 14/2/2017 19:47

It is great to see the share price up again although the Baltic Dry Index looks if it is heading for Jan 2016 territory. I don't know if any one is reading this. No posts for 3 months. Read the RNS announcing the analyst and investor's day on Sunday Evening and realised that it was for earlier that same day giving very little notice; the RNS only serving as a reminder for those already in the in the know who check their emails before the sun is above the yardarm on a Sunday Morning.

[clarksons1] 13/9/2016 00:06

Seaborne Trade - 2016 In 2015, growth in global seaborne trade slowed, falling to an estimated 1.9% in the full year, following an expansion of 3.4% in 2014. Indicators suggest that there has been a pick-up in trade growth in the year to date, and there are a range of views on how things might fare in the remainder of 2016. But whether you’re an optimist or a pessimist, a basket of monthly volume data might tell you something... Checking The Basket Annual projections of seaborne trade can be useful demand side indicators. However, often it is difficult to get a real understanding of short-term trade trends. A year ago we looked at a ‘basket’ approach, which took monthly seaborne trade flows for a range of commodities, to help show year to date global seaborne trade trends. Although monthly data can be difficult to use, is not comprehensively available, and is generally subject to a lag of several months, the same monthly ‘basket’ approach examined a year ago remains a helpful indicator of short-term seaborne trade trends. Promising Contents? In January the index stood at -1%, but four months later it reached 7%. Furthermore, the index has picked up compared to 2015 average levels, averaging 2.1% in Q1 2016 and 4.3% in Q2. Some of this trend is accounted for by a rise in dry bulk trade which fell last year, with China’s dry bulk imports growing 6% y-o-y in 1H 2016, following a 2% drop in 2015. An increase in box trade growth has also been apparent, with expansion in Asia-Europe trade back in positive territory and growth in intra-Asian trade picking up. Elsewhere, seaborne crude and products trade, which were two of the fastest growing elements of total seaborne trade in 2015, expanded firmly in 1H 2016. This was underpinned by robust growth in crude imports into China (16%), India and the US, despite the disruptions to Nigerian crude exports in recent months. Half Full Or Half Empty? Taking a wider view, even since the financial crisis there have been clear peaks in the index. The peak in early 2011 was partly on the back of strong growth in Chinese dry bulk, oil and gas imports and box exports from Asia. The index picked up again in 2012, supported by several months of strong growth in iron ore and coal trade to Asia. The next peak was in late 2013, when once again coal imports into Asia grew robustly and expansion in intra-Asian and Asia-Europe box trade was very strong. Today, you might conclude, if you’re a ‘basket half full’ type, that we’re heading steadily upwards again. But, if you’re a ‘basket half empty’ person, you might note that the peaks each time have been short-lived and have been getting lower. Is There Something In It? Our index appears to be on the up, although still at a relatively moderate level in historical terms, and with a volatile track record behind. There’s something in the ‘basket’ for both the optimist and the pessimist! HTTP://www.clarksons.net/archive/imagelib/2016-09-09_upload_3247770_SIW%201238.png Report Source : Clarksons