Clarkson Share Discussion Threads

[robcoo] 15/3/2017 11:08

I'm surprised at the lack of a following for CKN. It and IMB have been my best performing shares over the years by some way. CKN has appreciated by 700%, IMB rather more. Makes up for some disasters elsewhere.

[cosimodo] 14/2/2017 19:47

It is great to see the share price up again although the Baltic Dry Index looks if it is heading for Jan 2016 territory. I don't know if any one is reading this. No posts for 3 months. Read the RNS announcing the analyst and investor's day on Sunday Evening and realised that it was for earlier that same day giving very little notice; the RNS only serving as a reminder for those already in the in the know who check their emails before the sun is above the yardarm on a Sunday Morning.

[clarksons1] 13/9/2016 00:06

Seaborne Trade - 2016 In 2015, growth in global seaborne trade slowed, falling to an estimated 1.9% in the full year, following an expansion of 3.4% in 2014. Indicators suggest that there has been a pick-up in trade growth in the year to date, and there are a range of views on how things might fare in the remainder of 2016. But whether you’re an optimist or a pessimist, a basket of monthly volume data might tell you something... Checking The Basket Annual projections of seaborne trade can be useful demand side indicators. However, often it is difficult to get a real understanding of short-term trade trends. A year ago we looked at a ‘basket’ approach, which took monthly seaborne trade flows for a range of commodities, to help show year to date global seaborne trade trends. Although monthly data can be difficult to use, is not comprehensively available, and is generally subject to a lag of several months, the same monthly ‘basket’ approach examined a year ago remains a helpful indicator of short-term seaborne trade trends. Promising Contents? In January the index stood at -1%, but four months later it reached 7%. Furthermore, the index has picked up compared to 2015 average levels, averaging 2.1% in Q1 2016 and 4.3% in Q2. Some of this trend is accounted for by a rise in dry bulk trade which fell last year, with China’s dry bulk imports growing 6% y-o-y in 1H 2016, following a 2% drop in 2015. An increase in box trade growth has also been apparent, with expansion in Asia-Europe trade back in positive territory and growth in intra-Asian trade picking up. Elsewhere, seaborne crude and products trade, which were two of the fastest growing elements of total seaborne trade in 2015, expanded firmly in 1H 2016. This was underpinned by robust growth in crude imports into China (16%), India and the US, despite the disruptions to Nigerian crude exports in recent months. Half Full Or Half Empty? Taking a wider view, even since the financial crisis there have been clear peaks in the index. The peak in early 2011 was partly on the back of strong growth in Chinese dry bulk, oil and gas imports and box exports from Asia. The index picked up again in 2012, supported by several months of strong growth in iron ore and coal trade to Asia. The next peak was in late 2013, when once again coal imports into Asia grew robustly and expansion in intra-Asian and Asia-Europe box trade was very strong. Today, you might conclude, if you’re a ‘basket half full’ type, that we’re heading steadily upwards again. But, if you’re a ‘basket half empty’ person, you might note that the peaks each time have been short-lived and have been getting lower. Is There Something In It? Our index appears to be on the up, although still at a relatively moderate level in historical terms, and with a volatile track record behind. There’s something in the ‘basket’ for both the optimist and the pessimist! HTTP://www.clarksons.net/archive/imagelib/2016-09-09_upload_3247770_SIW%201238.png Report Source : Clarksons

[deadly] 15/8/2016 12:00

So much for the profit warning. Now they say: Robust performance despite continued challenging market conditions in many of our markets.

[clarksons1] 05/7/2016 17:48

The Shipping Finance Crisis - P Slater CEO First International - 23 June 2016 It is now clear that the demands for shipping services are way below the availability of the fleets of existing ships in most sectors. While the tanker markets remain finely balanced, as the price of crude oil does not seem to affect demand, orders for new crude carriers are cause for concern. The dry-bulk and container sectors are grossly over-tonnaged causing most companies in these sectors to record growing losses. Most financial analysts and some major shipbrokers now concede that this shipping crisis will continue through the remainder of this decade and maybe well into the next one. The publicly traded shipping companies provide a window of information on the crisis, but represent less than 25% of total fleet capacity, and are the area where most of the new equity has been invested and lost. Other companies which are subsidiaries of major industrial companies such as Maersk, Mitsubishi, Hyundai and the Oil Majors, do not publish detailed financial statements but some have recorded financial problems with their fleets. The Asian shipbuilders are in deep trouble with capacity down by over 50% and the volume of ships on order is at a level last seen in the late nineties. The Chinese will continue to support their shipbuilders, as part of its plan to keep freight rates down on its primary routes, by building new ships for Chinese owners or those chartering ships to Chinese companies. Thus the shipping industry has reverted to its traditional structure with large private owners and the industrial groups contracting for ship charters on terms that are rarely published, while the new public companies fight for business in the spot markets. Estimates show that more than $50 billion from Private Equity and Hedge Funds has been invested in the public companies. Another $50 billion has been invested in Germany by the German KGs. These equity funds were supplemented by huge levels of bank finance which was recklessly lent with no secure income streams in place. The German shipping crisis has created more than $50 billion of non-performing loans in the German banks and an estimate of a similar level of losses in the KG funds. Estimates of the total bank losses exceed $100billion. The publicly traded shipping companies are today hardly solvent, generating revenues that barely cover vessel operating expenses, do not cover debt service or generate cash reserves for essential maintenance, and are in many cases managed by the investor funds that do not understand how shipping works. Also the fundamental financial fact is that ships are depreciating assets that have operating lives that rarely exceed 20 years. The GAP accounting rules depreciate the ships over 25 years and the NAV is therefore not in line with true values and in this crisis the market values are invariably below NAV. This summary identifies the crisis but the cause is mostly self-inflicted. The Chinese industrial boom of the last decade was always temporary and with the appointment of a new government in 2010 the excesses of the previous one were revealed and steps taken to re-balance the economy and centralize controls again away from the Regions. The shipping industry, fueled by huge amounts of new risk capital and careless bank debt, embarked on a new-building program that enlarged fleet capacity by more than 50% in the dry-cargo and container sectors and by 30% in the products carrier sector. Large orders for new deep-ocean oil rigs and fleets of offshore supply ships combined, with the ships, to fill the world’s shipyards through 2010. By the time most of these ships were delivered it was obvious that the China boom was over and along with the banking crisis the global economies were heading for another recession. As the share prices of the public companies dropped more Funds entered the markets buying on the false assumption that ship prices would recover to the heady levels of the last decade. This ignored the fact that voyage revenues were not covering all the operating costs, including maintenance and repair, or generating cash reserves to meet fleet replacement costs. Ship values continued to decline but instead of closing out the risks by selling the ships, various forms of restructuring were instigated by the Funds which served only to compound the problems. These included: - more Secured Debt; Perpetual Preferred Equity and Reverse Stock Splits, all designed to keep the companies afloat while effectively wiping out the original equity. As the Funds had no experience or way of increasing voyage revenues they focused on operating expenses, but have adopted measures that can seriously affect the safety and reliability of the ships. These measures include: cheap or under-paid crews; little or no spare parts on-board; minimal maintenance and no cash reserves for statutory dry-dockings. The Head of one large dry-cargo company, and an ex-banker, recently boasted the he had got costs down to $4,000 per ship per day. To which one major Greek shipowner commented “which part of the ship is he running?” Comparatively the Chairman of Nordic American Tankers also stated that his operating costs were $11,000pd. He is a long term shipping expert who does understand the industry. Consolidation has also been trumpeted but so far the largest one in the dry-cargo sector is a disaster and will likely end in total collapse. Like restructuring these activities generate huge legal and banking fees and so far fail to generate increased revenues. Charterers are increasingly unwilling to fix ships from most of the public companies on anything more than voyage charters, yet some of the dry-cargo companies still report period charters at rates that fail to cover costs. The solution is to sell the ships that are not financially viable before their running costs increase and their values decline further with age, pay off the secured debt and distribute the balance, if any, to the equity holders. This needs to be done soon and certainly by the end of this year as the public share prices continue to decline and the global economic outlook is gloomy.

[meijiman] 04/7/2016 08:54

The words horse and stable door spring to mind.............

[funkmasterp12] 04/7/2016 06:05

Ouch, big warning.

[moelfre geld] 01/5/2016 20:52

Lydnem: Interesting how you quote 3,000p as a broker target. I spent today calculating a very conservative target of 3,000p also. Actually a more probable outcome if CKN continues at its current pace (and if this bad market were to continue for 5 years) then I was calculating more like 5,300p in 5 years, above 13,000 in 10+; adjust this with a 30% current risk discount rate; it should be more like 3,700p present value in this uncertain financial climate. Even at 3,000p there is a 25% upside at todays price. Current p/e of 35 seems expensive to some I suppose, but CKN is a great co and very very cheap 'value' imo. A pretty high p/e for a bad market could indicate informed investing in quality co's in shaky times?

[emeraldzebra] 19/4/2016 12:47

Indeed. i think rivals Braemar look v good value too....

[lydnem] 19/4/2016 12:02

Nice rise today. Theyve been tipped apparently, broker target of 3000

[emeraldzebra] 08/4/2016 08:38

these should be excess 23 quid by now...suspect some nutcase shorters depressing them - judging from the trade patterns.

[emeraldzebra] 06/4/2016 07:32

Freight market continues to push better which will be helpful.

[thomasthetank1] 05/4/2016 11:19

Read Panmure’s note on Clarkson (CKN), out this morning, by visiting www.research-tree.com … "We believe Clarkson has a uniquely strong market position in marine broking and investment banking and is taking advantage of current difficult industry conditions to leverage its position. We forecast strong growth in earnings and free cash flow from 2017 driven by achievable revenue and margin growth that could see the company trading at a 27% discount to its historic P/E by 2018 and potentially offering a yield of 5-6% on its full distribution potential. We reiterate..."

[lydnem] 18/3/2016 11:01

SO they place 2m shares at 1840 yesterday yet they trade at 2400 today? Strange The day chart shows 2005 on my screen though, i think advfn might be having problems though as it shows at 2395 on google

[longshanks] 18/3/2016 10:46

I think for once - such cynicism would be justified. The market is full of people who trade on inside knowledge; the authorities don't police it adequately.