Clarkson Share Discussion Threads

[shanklin] 23/4/2018 12:18

MT, Management certainly don't seem to be open and honest.

[zho] 23/4/2018 11:23

Comment at https://ftalphaville.ft.com/marketslive/2018-04-23/

[balcony] 23/4/2018 10:40

Volsung-Like it

[volsung] 23/4/2018 10:15

Bought a few here. Don't like Jeremy much but Kelly is ok

[miti 1000] 23/4/2018 08:41

Where's our resident expert gone ?

[tsmith2] 23/4/2018 08:40

at 90p EPS would give PE of 27, way way too high!

[shanklin] 23/4/2018 08:35

Given the subsequent share price recovery, my sales were badly timed but what is one meant to do when the RNS is so vague and suggests management have no interest in keeping the market properly updated... ...especially when one compares this update with the outlook statement in the FY results.

[shanklin] 23/4/2018 08:33

No, completely unprofessional.

[tsmith2] 23/4/2018 08:30

Shocker. won't say anything about likely quantum of decrease, cash position or anything..

[shanklin] 23/4/2018 08:21

Yes, a ridiculous change of outlook in such a short period.

[tiswas] 23/4/2018 08:15

I had a look at it but thought a tad expensive. Managerial reputation in tatters I would think after positive outlook with results 6 weeks ago?

[shanklin] 23/4/2018 07:17

Shame it was something I did nothing about.

[tiswas] 23/4/2018 07:15

Good spot Shanklin - something else going on in terms of profit warning. Watch out below. Tis. No holding.

[shanklin] 29/3/2018 16:02

Weakness here down to Trump's tariff threats and the (hopefully) temporary change of chairman or is something else going on?

[mount teide] 12/3/2018 22:48

Johnv - CKN v BMS Posted this analysis on the BMS thread a while back - to help other posters understand the relative underperformance of BMS as a result of being heavily weighted towards the oil shipping and service sectors, whose recovery is still in the very earliest of stages. 'A tale of two shipbrokers! Being heavily overweight in the oil tanker and oil service sector did BMS no favours after tanker rates weakened in mid 2016 just as a surge of new capacity hit the sector. The comparison with sector heavyweight Clarksons more diversified shipbroking approach is stark. Since mid 2016 the relative share price performance is astonishing considering they both operate in the same industry: -40% BMS +75% CKN £1000 put in CKN is now worth £1750, while in BMS £600. Nevertheless, I suspect the strengthening oil price from Q4/2017 onwards should now be generating a modest but very welcome recovery at BMS.'

[mount teide] 12/3/2018 15:34

Walbrrok 'So, why the shares expensive? When it was a growth company in the late 90s and in early 2000s, earnings were growing at double digit (around 10%-12%) when PE multiple is around 10 times. After 2010, earnings growth slowed to 4%, and PE is trading at 30 times and forward-PE of 27 times in 2018!' From: 2000 to 2008 - BDI was in recovery/boom mode following an 8 year sector recession 2008 to 2016 - BDI fell an astonishing 98% in the deepest recession to hit the shipping industry since the Great Depression. 2016 to est 2023-2025 BDI is currently in the early stages of the next cyclical recovery/boom period. BDI is currently up around 350% from the all time 2016 low but still MORE than 90% below its 2008 all time high. Clarksons business, although now well diversified compared to 2000- 2008, still generates the overwhelming majority of its income from shipbroking and so its growth is directly linked to the performance of the BDI( Clarksons shipbroking revenue is mostly generated from earning a fixed percentage of each ship charter). Current market valuation - market is increasingly pricing in the expectation that the BDI (rates at which shipping is chartered out at) will appreciate rapidly over the years ahead - since the serious vessel oversupply issue which has largely been responsible for decimating charter rates over the last 8 years, is forecast to come to an end over the next 12 months or so.

[mount teide] 12/3/2018 15:09

johns - think both will do very well over a 5 year outlook. CKN/BMS - With regard to risk/reward - its not comparing like with like. One is the global industry leader(CKN) - a well diversified global shipbroker The other a second tier broker(BMS) - heavy oil industry weighting(oil tanker and oil service sectors). Currently, recovery of the oil tanker and oil service sectors is lagging the rest of the shipping industry - i would expect this situation to continue well into next year. Hold a very large long term position in CKN which i added heavily to last year - sold a modest position in BMS last year and recycled it into CKN after becoming concerned BMS's oil sector weighting might act as a drag on the pace of recovery.

[bobmonkeyhouse] 12/3/2018 15:07

Great company. it will not drop to 22 quid

[walbrock82] 12/3/2018 14:54

Clarkson’s results are as expected, with sales slightly higher than expected, but profits lower. (Please ignore the adjusted profits because acquisition costs are part of doing business, not a one-off expense!) The real question is: “Are the shares expensive at current valuation?” As a value investor, yes, it is. Should you be selling the shares? Yes, but on a short-term basis. So, why the shares expensive? When it was a growth company in the late 90s and in early 2000s, earnings were growing at double digit (around 10%-12%) when PE multiple is around 10 times. After 2010, earnings growth slowed to 4%, and PE is trading at 30 times and forward-PE of 27 times in 2018! Therefore, a CORRECTION of 30%-35% is reasonable which will take the shares to £22 per share or PE of 20 times. For more reasons, why Clarkson will see its shares fall http://bit.ly/2FMPYPJ

[johnv] 06/3/2018 14:47

MT, which is the better risk/reward here ckn or bms?

[mount teide] 05/3/2018 10:22

US oil exports to the Far East to boots Tanker Sector demand. US Shale Oil And Shipping: Expect The Unexpected? - Clarksons Research 28 Feb 2018 hTTp://www.clarksons.net/archive/imagelib/2018-02-23_upload_2507154_SIW%201311.png Sometimes in shipping, as in life, things come along that nobody really expects. US shale/tight oil production, which was barely on the radar ten years ago, seems to be one of those things. The most recent news, of US crude being unloaded in the Middle East and of output passing 1970s levels, has not come entirely out of the blue. But imagine saying ten years ago that the USA could soon be a net oil exporter... Ancien Régime Prior to 2017, the last time US total crude oil production stood at over 10m bpd was in the early 1970s, after which output was in decline for forty years. The early 1970s also saw the Yom Kippur War, the Arab Oil Embargo and US motorists queuing to fill up at gas stations where pump prices had quadrupled in under a year. Thus the 1975 US crude export ban and the quest for energy independence that (so far) has proved elusive. In fact, a decade ago, US seaborne crude imports stood at almost 8m bpd, equal to 20% of global seaborne crude imports and 40% of US oil consumption. Only in the area of oil products was a US export sector able to develop, based on intra-Americas exports and the transatlantic arbitrage of American and European refinery slates, with the US importing gasoline and exporting gas oils from its complex Gulf Coast refineries. The Shale Revolution Begins Things began to change on the US crude front in the late 2000s. This was due to the shale revolution enabled by advances in “fracking” and related technologies. US tight crude output increased by 3.4m bpd from 2010 to 2014 (almost 80% of the net increase in oil production globally in that time) and was a key factor in the oil price downturn beginning in 2014. The significant stimulus US shale has been giving to seaborne LPG and LNG trades is well documented. But for a while, shale oil production was a negative for shipping, displacing imports. In late 2015 though, the crude export ban was lifted. Small volumes of semi-processed condensate had already been exported under technicalities, but this opened the floodgates. US seaborne crude exports tripled in 2017 and are projected to hit 1.5m bpd in 2018 (4% of the global total). Given the need to blend lighter shale oil with heavy grades in US refineries, US oil imports look likely to remain a feature of seaborne trade. But talk is now all about rising US oil exports (e.g. to the Far East) creating tonne-mile demand. The Revolution Continues? During the downturn, shale has surprised most observers by its resilience, with oil price breakevens in many plays (notably in the Permian) falling greatly. Combined with firming oil prices, this has seen US tight oil output grow by 1.4m bpd from the Q3 2015 trough, to stand at almost 6.5m bpd - 65% of US total crude output. The consensus view is for further firm growth in 2018 and 2019 too, with a plateau not being reached until c.2025 (though shale has a history of surprising on the upside). So while there remain uncertainties related to oil prices and resource potential, the shale revolution looks here to stay. Clearly this could have further significant implications for seaborne oil trades. And looking back a decade, it just goes to show, not even the wisest heads can see some things coming.

[mount teide] 23/2/2018 16:22

Strong chart looking ready for the next leg up.