Clarkson Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 13/8/2018 11:17

As expected, with the Baltic Dry Index rising close to 50% since Q1/2018, the world's largest shipbroker Clarkson's has experienced a stronger Q2/2018 across most of its main shipbroking and sale&purchase markets. The oil tanker market although still the exception is now seeing green shoots, moving up strongly off multi year lows; vessel charter rates have increased by over 100% since the start of Q3/2018 which should bode well for H2/2018 and 2019. Likewise the oil services sector, also recently made a bottom and entered a new cyclical recovery phase following a brutal 5 year recession which brought the industry to its knees. Clarkson's highly expensive takeover of Platou some 3 years ago - a specialist oil tanker and oil services sector shipbroker - could not have been more badly judged/timed but, following an awful post acquisition period should now start to generate better news and results going forward. Oil tanker rates dropped over 10 fold peak to trough following Clarkson's takeover of Platou and the oil services sector completely collapsed, with large sections of many major fleets put in to long term lay-up. With many sectors of the shipping markets forecast to be at/close to a demand/supply balance for the first time in a nearly a decade in 2019, I'm maintaining my earlier target of a £100 Clarkson share price by 2023/25 as the shipping markets continue to strengthen into this new shipping /commodity cycle recovery stage, which like all previous recovery stages will come with the high stomach churning volatility these markets are renown for. The shipping and commodity markets may not be for the fainthearted, widows or orphans perhaps - but for those with the constitution to withstand the volatility, with careful stock selection the once in every 15-20 year recovery/boom stage of these long term, highly cyclical markets offer investors the opportunity of tremendous multi year outperformance compared to the wider market indexes.

[deadly] 13/8/2018 09:54

poor results but better than expected?

[jtcod] 13/8/2018 07:08

Sorry wrong thread

[mount teide] 05/7/2018 07:47

The Baltic Dry Index has moved in a completely different direction to the industrial metals markets since the 'trade war' rhetoric ramped up at beginning of June. Unlike the metals markets, as a result of its size and scope the BDI is a market that is almost impossible to manipulate in any meaningful way and is therefore closest to a bellwether for the global economy. The BDI is a measure of the cost of transporting commodities and finished goods - 95% of which as some point see the bottom of a ship's cargo holds. The BDI has risen 50% since the beginning of June from 1,042 to 1,567 - up 440% from the 2016 lows. This move is completely opposite to what would have been expected were the reports of the risks of a trade war and slowing global economy as significant as is being made out in some quarters.

[richard4796] 03/7/2018 07:50

Does anyone currently have a stake in this company? I was hoping it was going to continue to climb and didn't see the drop coming.

[shalder] 02/7/2018 13:56

I think some Platou people who acquired CKN shares through the takeover have been selling recently. Plus there will be some concern re risks of a global trade war impacting on shipping trade volumes/rates.

[richard4796] 02/7/2018 12:37

well it has taken a nose dive. any ideas?

[rossannan] 30/6/2018 23:29

And yet the share price is hitting new lows. If claims of a deterioration across the shipping market are overdone (and BDI seems cheery enough at the moment), is this something Clarkson-specific?

[mount teide] 28/4/2018 09:30

BDI has rebounded very strongly from the latest rising chart low made in the second week of April, and is now up 43% in just two weeks. Apologies for describing Stephen Gordon, the author of the article above, as a señior Analyst at Clarksons, he is in fact now the Managing Director of Clarkson's highly regarded Research Services Division.

[spob] 23/4/2018 11:54

This had gotten way ahead of itself regardless of any profit warning and that's the big risk with a high rating. Any setback and the stock gets hammered

[mount teide] 23/4/2018 11:34

Shnaklin - Andi Case is imo the least impressive CEO they have had over the last 20 years - fortunately, shareholders continue to benefit from a very strong group of NED's with long industry experience. Would not surprise me if the Chairman is currently sounding out a replacement for Mr Case, in light of the his embarrassing about turn since the bullish outlook given to the Market last month.

[shalder] 23/4/2018 11:26

I suspect also that USD weakness v Sterling may also be producing a material drag on the bottom line, to a greater extent than previously assumed. MT thanks for the above analysis which is most helpful.

[shanklin] 23/4/2018 11:18

MT, Management certainly don't seem to be open and honest.

[zho] 23/4/2018 10:23

Comment at https://ftalphaville.ft.com/marketslive/2018-04-23/

[balcony] 23/4/2018 09:40

Volsung-Like it

[volsung] 23/4/2018 09:15

Bought a few here. Don't like Jeremy much but Kelly is ok

[miti 1000] 23/4/2018 07:41

Where's our resident expert gone ?

[tsmith2] 23/4/2018 07:40

at 90p EPS would give PE of 27, way way too high!

[shanklin] 23/4/2018 07:35

Given the subsequent share price recovery, my sales were badly timed but what is one meant to do when the RNS is so vague and suggests management have no interest in keeping the market properly updated... ...especially when one compares this update with the outlook statement in the FY results.

[shanklin] 23/4/2018 07:33

No, completely unprofessional.

[tsmith2] 23/4/2018 07:30

Shocker. won't say anything about likely quantum of decrease, cash position or anything..

[shanklin] 23/4/2018 07:21

Yes, a ridiculous change of outlook in such a short period.