Clarkson Share Discussion Threads

[martindjzz] 28/2/2020 11:45

Mount Teide, in your opinion how strongly are the fortunes of CKN linked to the Baltic Dry Index? All other opinions welcome.

[mount teide] 11/10/2019 16:43

The US blacklisting of Chinese ships has seen oil buyers scrambling for capacity, pushing shipping rates to a more than decade high.

Average spot market rates for a VLCC(Very large Crude Carrier) have rocketed 522% in two weeks from 18,000 USD per day on 25th Sept to 94,000 USD per day by 9th October!

Clarkson CKN share price surged 11.1% today to an 18 month high.


'Oil Shipping Costs Soar to Highest Levels in 11 Years - Wall Street Journal

The cost of moving oil around the world has hit an 11-year high as producers scramble to find new supertankers following a U.S. blacklisting of a major Chinese operator that has sidelined dozens of ships.

“The market has gone bonkers by shock events like the Cosco tankers being blacklisted,” said George Lazaridis, head of research and valuations at Athens, Greece-based Allied Shipbroking. “It’s a bubble that could get bigger because of geopolitics before it bursts.”

Shipping executives say the U.S. action late last month over allegations that the vessels were tied to illicit shipments of Iranian crude has hit more than 40 tankers operated by a subsidiary of Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation, one of the world’s largest tanker owners and a major carrier for China’s oil needs.

Washington’s move pushed Asian and European importers searching for crude carriers in a tight market to secure oil cargoes as winter approaches.

But with Iran and Venezuela oil exports also under U.S. sanctions and Saudi Arabian oil production still trying to recover from a missile attack in September, oil traders have been turning to the U.S. for crude shipments.

The longer distance to move oil cargoes from the U.S. to Europe and Asia compared with moving them from the Middle East, has pushed daily charter rates for the big ships called very large crude carriers to their highest level since July 2008, according to Baltic Exchange data.

“There is a lot of confusion and uncertainty out there,” said Paolo d’Amico, head of Intertanko, a trade body representing tanker owners. “Everyone is afraid of being hit by the U.S., sanctions, rendering about 50 VLCCs untouchable.”

U.S. oil exports to Europe, which usually move in smaller tankers, hit a record 1.8 million barrels a day for the week ending Oct. 7, according to Kpler, an energy market intelligence company. The figure is double the 924,000 barrels in the previous week. But shipments to Asia, which are typically done on VLCCs, were reduced almost in half to 508,000 barrels.

A Singapore broker said rates for some VLCC cargoes on sailings from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the Far East were more than $120,000 on Thursday. Average earnings for supertankers picking up cargoes from around the world hit $94,124 a day, up from $18,284 on Sept. 25, when Washington blacklisted the Cosco fleet.

“VLCCs to Asia are a rare commodity, the market is red hot and will stay that way while the U.S. sanctions on Cosco ships are in place,” said the broker, who asked not to be named because he isn’t authorized to talk to the media.

Senior U.S. and Chinese officials squared off in trade talks Thursday at a pivotal moment in the countries’ relationship with President Trump planning to meet with the head of the Chinese negotiating team, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, when the talks are scheduled to conclude Friday.

People with knowledge of the matter said the Chinese delegation planned to bring up the tanker ban during the talks.

Cosco Energy’s parent company, state-owned Cosco Shipping Group, is the world’s biggest shipping operator in terms of overall capacity, operating more than 1,100 vessels of all types, including container ships, tankers and bulk carriers. The company is also a part of Beijing’s multitrillion-dollar Belt and Road initiative that aims to establish infrastructure and distribution channels to help extend China’s influence around the world.

The Cosco tanker ban covers around 6% of the global VLCC fleet but other factors are leaving shipping capacity tight. Many large tankers and smaller ships are in dry dock being retrofitted with sulfur-trapping exhaust systems ahead of a regulation to clean up ship emissions that goes into effect in January.

“The [freight rate] expectations going into 2020 were already high because of the 2020 climate regulations,” said Evangelos Marinakis, chairman of Athens-based Capital Maritime & Trading Corp., which operates 10 VLCCs. “With so many geopolitical and industry-specific factors now pushing the market, it’s hard to predict when it will settle. But we expect the current strength to continue well into next year.” '

[spob] 10/10/2019 22:57

yes that's the one

[shalder] 10/10/2019 22:53

Ah, I was just thinking shipbroking, but in the wider shipping sector there is James Fisher (FSJ) based in Barrow - could be who you are thinking of?

[spob] 10/10/2019 22:35

Thanks

BMS now Braemar shipping services

there was another beginning with an f. Can't remember the name now

[shalder] 10/10/2019 22:18

spob: the other UK quoted is Braemar Seascope (BMS), Gibsons used to be part of the Hunting Group (HTG)but no longer. Can't think of anyone else significant!

[spob] 10/10/2019 21:33

Any other quoted companies in this sector ?

I remember trading this in the past when it was cheap

Also Seascope and another whose name escapes me right now

[postiga08] 14/8/2019 16:17

how do you know

[1hopefultrader] 13/8/2019 14:36

all auto trades.

[mount teide] 22/7/2019 08:17

Another day another new 5 year high for the Baltic Dry Index which continues to power ahead, surging a further 40 points(1.88%) today to reach 2,170 - extending its incredible winning streak to 23 days in 24.

The BDI is up an astonishing 104.3% over the last 24 days, +264.7% from Zero Hedge's 'armageddon call for the industry and global economy' Feb 2019 higher low (CAGR of 635%), and +628% since the H1/2016 shipping market cycle recession low.

The good news? The BDI today is still trading at barely 50% of its 10 year inflation adjusted mean and just 18.4% of its inflation unadjusted previous market cycle high.

With most of the dry bulk global fleet now operating in the spot market, the extremely strong recent performance of the BDI is now starting to feed through into the valuations/market performance of dry bulk ship owners/operators and shipbrokers, whose valuations traditionally lag strong upward movement of the BDI by 3-6 months.

[mount teide] 18/7/2019 08:42

Another day another new 5 year high for the Global Shipping Industry Index that measures the demand/cost of moving commodities around the world - over 90% of all dry commodities see the inside of a bulk carrier's cargo holds at some point between the producer and buyer/consumer.

The Baltic Dry Index continues to light up the afterburners by surging a further 53 points(2.63%) today(following yesterday's 4.3% rise), to reach 2,064 - extending its incredible winning streak to 21 days in 22.

The BDI is up 94.3% over the last 22 days, +246.8% from the Feb 2019 higher low (CAGR of 592%), and +591% since the H1/2016 shipping market cycle recession low.

Wonder what the Shipping Market 'Guru's at Zero Hedge make of it all?
The BDI has moved up 246.8% since ZH published an armageddon call for the shipping industry and global economy in mid Feb - ZH's call completely ignored the fact as i posted at the time that:

* There were easily researched seasonal(Chinese New Year shutdown) and short term one-off factors (extreme weather events hitting Australian export Ports and causing the Dam Collapse at one of Vale's largest Brazilian Iron Ore mines) behind the sharp drop in the BDI in early Q1/2019 which had nothing whatsoever to do with the health of the global economy.

* the global economy has expanded by an average of circa 2%-3% a year for over 40 years with just one slightly negative year,

* the long term highly cyclical shipping industry only bottomed in 2016 after a brutal 8 year 98% peak to trough downturn/recession, recklessly created as a result of a greed driven industry generating a massive shipping overcapacity issue during the last market cycle recovery/boom phase (2000-2008) - which at its spot market peak saw the annual cash flow generated by a Capemax dry bulk carrier virtually equal the build cost of a new vessel with a 25 year commercial life.


Factors that are collectively influencing the current strong upward movement of the BDI include:

* Supply, demand, and prices of bulk dry commodities.
* Supply and capacity of global dry bulk fleet
* Health of the world's economy and overall market sentiment.
* Crude oil prices and the resulting cost of bunker fuel.
* Preparation for the implementation of the IMO 2020 Shipping Fuel Regs
* Seasonality in the transport of commodities.
* Port congestion
* Geopolitical events, labour issues, weather, and accidents in exporting and importing countries.

[mount teide] 18/7/2019 08:29

2 Year Chart - with 50, 100 and 200 Day MA


https ://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=TX%5EAXL&p=0&t=39&width=600&height=190&vol=1

Clarkson Plc is the world's leading provider of integrated services and investment banking capabilities to the shipping and offshore markets, facilitating global trade.

Founded in 1852, Clarkson offers its diverse and growing client base an unrivalled range of shipbroking services, sector research, on-hand logistical support and full investment banking capabilities in all the key shipping and offshore sectors.

Clarkson has delivered 17 years of consecutive dividend growth. The highly cash generative nature of the business, supported by a strong balance sheet, enables the company to continue to invest to position the business to capitalise on the upturn stage in its long term highly cyclical markets, which collectively bottomed in H1/2016 following a brutal 8 year downturn/recession stage that saw the BDI drop an astonishing 98% peak to trough.

Annual Report:

2018 Preliminary Results: hxxps://www.clarksons.com/media/1153670/preliminary_results_for_the_12_months_ended_31_december_2018_presentation.pdf

Website:

Twitter:

Baltic Dry Index:


Freightos Baltic Index (FBX): Global Container Freight Index:


Baltic Dirty Tanker (BAID)


Ukraine - I know politicians in general are not to be trusted, but has there ever been a more disingenuous, duplicitous two faced little self righteous runt than Macron?

[mount teide] 11/7/2019 09:24

Faltering global economy? Not according to the Baltic Dry Index which measures the cost of shipping raw commodities around the world(90% of all commodities and finished goods at sometime see the inside of a ship's cargo hold)

The Baltic Dry Index - set a new 5 year high today following a further 18 point (1.02%) increase to 1,777.

The BDI is up 67.9% over the last 17 days, 199.2% (CAGR of 478%) from the Feb 2019 higher low and 496% since the H1/2016 shipping market cycle recession low.

Incredibly, barely 5 months after Zero Hedge's armageddon call for the global shipping industry and the financial institutions that fund it - the primary index that reports global ship charter/cargo freight rates on a daily basis has two bagged!

How wrong can you be?

The good news?
Such was the record breaking 98% peak to trough decline in the BDI during the last shipping/commodity market cycle - the recent very strong run up of the BDI has reached a position where its still only 15.1% of the previous inflation unadjusted shipping market cycle high set in 2008 of 11,800 points; when 350 metre long Capemax Bulk Carriers earned $240,000 a day in the spot market with circa $12,000 a day operating expenses.

[mount teide] 11/7/2019 08:58

Baltic Dry Index - set a new 5 year high today following a further 18 point (1.02%) increase to 1,777.

BDI is up 67.9% over the last 17 days, 199.2% (CAGR of 478%) from the Feb 2019 higher low and 496% since the H1/2016 shipping market cycle low.

Incredible, that barely 5 months after Zero Hedge's armageddon call for the global shipping industry and the financial institutions that fund it - the primary index that reports global ship charter/cargo freight rates on a daily basis has two bagged!

How wrong can you be?

[mount teide] 27/6/2019 16:44

Baltic Dry Index surged another 2.89% today to 1,317 to set another new high for 2019.

It is now up 121.3% since the Feb higher low when Zero Hedge published an armageddon call for the global shipping industry and banks that finance it.

[mount teide] 19/6/2019 13:04

Decent transaction volume this morning - 550K / £13.5 million

BDI up 91% from the Feb higher low.

[mount teide] 26/5/2019 12:09

Maritime Freight Transport forecast to grow at a CAGR of 3.6% through to 2050


OECD - FREIGHT DEMAND WILL TRIPLE BY 2050 – NEW REPORT / Lloyd's List

According to a major new OECD report global freight demand is set to surge in the coming decades.

The report considers a range of transport demand scenarios through to 2050 and concludes global freight demand will triple between 2015 and 2050, based on current demand growth rates.

“The projected compound annual growth rate of freight through 2030 is 3.1%,” said the report. “Freight demand will grow faster over the longer term, at 3.4% through 2050.”

However, it said projected demand could shift as a result of increased protectionism but also due to improvements in freight transport capacity in countries or regions with significant growth potential. “In Asia, for instance, capacity will need to increase substantially to accommodate future freight transport demand,”.

Based on mid-range scenarios for freight demand, the authors said that the current demand pathway will see maritime freight transport grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.6% through 2050, a near tripling of maritime trade volumes compared to now.

“The economic value of freight flows in the North Pacific and Indian Oceans will increase nearly four-fold between 2015 and 2050,” it noted. “Approximately one third of all maritime freight movements in 2050 will take place in these two regions.

“The North Atlantic Ocean will remain the third-busiest maritime corridor, with 15% of maritime freight movements in 2050, equalling 38 trillion tonne-kilometres.221;

The relocation of factories inland in China in a bid to cut production costs could hurt demand for maritime shipping to Europe, however. “This may impact mode choice for Eurasian freight flows if these relocations significantly increase the time and cost of maritime shipments relative to inland modes,” it added.

More than three-quarters of all freight will continue to be carried by ships in 2050, with the remaining goods transported by road (17%) and rail (7%).

“Surface freight flows in China and India taken together made up 37% of total surface freight flows in 2015,” said the report. “By 2050, Asia, including China and India, will be responsible for over 54% of global surface freight demand.'

[shiv1986] 07/5/2019 08:47

ADVFN is hosting an investor event for a firm within Industrial Transportation; Avation plc, on the 21st May to find out about their future prospects.

Sign up to attend this event: