Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Civitas Social Housing Plc LSE:CSH London Ordinary Share GB00BD8HBD32 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.30p +0.36% 83.30p 84.20p 84.70p 84.30p 83.10p 83.30p 291,910 12:05:30
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Real Estate Investment Trusts 35.7 19.9 4.7 17.8 519

Civitas Social Housing Share Discussion Threads

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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
22/7/2019
17:43
understanding of this sector is poor - even amongst the city brokerage community - not surprising given the sector is new to them. the real risk to the sector relates to changes in central govt funding policy towards specialist social housing (unlikely?). perception of regulator of social housing related risk is to some degree a red herring. housing associations should be thought of as no more than managing agents. the question to ask is are CSH assets fit for purpose, leased at market rents (i.e. not over rented), and occupied by tenants with long term special needs in areas of substantial supply / demand imbalance. if the answer to all these questions is yes (which it is), the risk of non payment is almost zero. if housing associations become financially stressed losses are imposed on void property stock, and or over rented premises. property which is fit for purpose and occupied at appropriate mkt rents would be unaffected and in extremis CSH could re-assign their leases to more financially viable HAs - which they have already been the case since IPO. n.b. many of these smaller specialist care related housings associations have grown rapidly in recent years and inevitably there have been associated growing pains. these issues are now being addressed to ensure their operations / governance are more professionally conducted going forward. other bear arguments focus on the mismatch of leases between housing associations and local authorities on one hand (typically shorter) and between housing assciation and social housing landlords on the other (typically longer). this misses the point that underlying tenants have long term specialist care needs (often longer than the lease) and will be funded by central govt whilst they are in situ - unless there is a change in govt funding policy...
roha1
17/7/2019
21:45
seems to have stabilized at this level which looks attractive for income investors who want the real value of capital maintained but probably needs to attract attention of wealth managers to see price rise
gopher
05/7/2019
15:10
Thanks @apollo. dcb = Dead Cat Bounce ;)
spectoacc
05/7/2019
14:55
@spectoacc - what's a DCB? The article, by the way, is on Citywire Trust Insider.
apollocreed1
04/7/2019
16:19
Been a decent dcb - read an interesting article I now can't find a link for, headline "The regulator doesn't hate us" or similar.
spectoacc
28/6/2019
08:58
Still some regulatory risk but agreed - so far they seem to be talking a good story, & there's a lot in the price down here.
spectoacc
26/6/2019
21:22
An uptick is the share price seems to signal we have seen the bottom when they were rated on a par with investments trusts who were either not understandable or to be avoided
gopher
24/6/2019
08:30
No surprises here as far as I can see At 80p the company is offering a yield of 6.25% rising to 6.6% next year
gopher
18/6/2019
21:46
The discount against NAV was 28% at 77p. In fact discount and NAV have been moving in different directions this year. This will clearly reverse at some point or we are looking at a write down of NAV which I can't see a reason for given the specialization (social housing for the disabled)
gopher
14/6/2019
18:07
Agreed re results, tho looking to buy more here.
spectoacc
14/6/2019
15:29
I can see little extra beyond the news which caused the initial fall It looks overdone but if there is a seller in the market who likely invested when the stock was trading at a premium to NAV instead of today's huge discount then its unlikely there are buyers waiting to snap up stock The problem with Civitas is that it is not an established Investment Trust in an existing part of the IT market therefore finding an appropriate discount to NAV may take time. results on 24th June may bring clarity and I cant see why people would invest ahead of that date
gopher
04/6/2019
14:00
Any idea why the price has fallen again today?
apollocreed1
13/5/2019
08:36
Seems a reasonable update - SOHO's out today too. Much prefer CSH for the NAV discount.
spectoacc
09/5/2019
12:28
Note: Dividend raised to 1.375p; xd-16May19. 2019-20 Target of 5.3p. [4.3% higher than year ending 31Mar19]. Not greeted with any enthusiasm to judge by the share price action after the 8May19 RNS declaring the divi.
2sporrans
18/4/2019
07:22
Well, they did buy that £86-mn of property v. recently Gopher; so 37% of that £230-mn of borrowings invested. But yes, even 1 significant Director's share purchase would assuage investor pessimism somewhat. If they raise the divi. a bit above its current 5p, that too might engender some enthusiasm that 84-85p is indeed a bargain price.
2sporrans
15/4/2019
23:51
My thoughts also SpectoAcc - The directors believe the share fall is unduly harsh but buying by them would be a good sign
gopher
13/4/2019
07:44
Excellent report, thanks. "It warned investors, that if it had to intervene in future it could not guarantee they would not suffer financial losses." "Analysts believe the share price falls in Civitas and Triple Point triggered by the report are justified given the real estate investment trusts may have to slow – or even stop – investing the £230 million and £150 million of borrowings they have arranged, with knock-on consequences for investment and dividend returns." ‘The RSH currently has regulatory judgements on over 240 RPs outstanding, Only three of these are non-compliant for both governance and financial viability and they are tenants of the listed social housing Reits,’ he said. Numis Securities said it was ‘more wary’ of the risks now that it was clear the sector faced more than ‘teething problems’ and that the regulator was prepared to intervene ‘in order to achieve the best outcome for tenants, which may be to the detriment of investors. Personally, I wonder if a c.20% discount to NAV (tho NAV itself can be a variable feast) is pricing in quite a lot already on CSH.
spectoacc
12/4/2019
18:33
Just published- a clear summary. What’s wrong with high-yielding social housing trusts? citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/what-s-wrong-with-high-yielding-social-housing-trusts/a1220525?ref=investment-trust-insider-latest-news-list
mushypeas
12/4/2019
10:23
SA Thanks for info. and concur with your conclusions.
2sporrans
12/4/2019
10:20
Thanks mp Also castigating myself for not having read the actual report at earliest opportunity. I did reduce my holding a bit on the last rise, as concerned the earnings weren't growing much and related ratios/margins look set to remain low. That combined with quite rapid expansion of Civitas portfolio ongoing and rise in debt-ratio - [though still well within CSH own stated tolerance]if only temporary. The rental growth looks ok, at this time; ditto the NAV growth. However, yes, these may be considerably more vulnerable than I've thought; the RPs do look shaky, especially the smaller ones. Excerpt from that regulatory report: These regulatory judgements and notices have revealed some recurring themes, which include:  the concentration risk that comes from having long-term, low-margin inflation-linked leases as a single source of finance  the thin capitalisation of some of the RPs undertaking this model  poor risk management and contingency planning undertaken by some of the RPs  some inappropriate governance practises that have led to poor decision making  a lack of assurance about whether appropriate rents are being charged. Perhaps potential political/regulatory risk will weigh heaviest upon that last noted concern?
2sporrans
12/4/2019
09:43
Thanks @mushy, must admit I've only read the summaries & co responses, not the report, which I'll wade through later. @2sporrans - good points, tho this caught my eye from a glance at the report: "...Weak governance at many of these organisations has led them to develop business models that are unsustainable in the longer term and cannot withstand foreseeable downside risk." So whilst a recession/downturn may not be a problem, the business models of the RPs may be! SOHO is the other big one - and yes, has taken a similar tumble to CSH. SOHO has less exposure to the smaller stuff mind. Impact claims to have none at all (sub-1k beds). I guess that does imply it's the report - not yet Labour - to have done the recent damage.
spectoacc
12/4/2019
09:18
All holders should read the report that triggered the most recent S.P. collapse. Lease-based providers of specialised supported housing - GOV.UK https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/lease-based-providers-of-specialist-supported-housing Presumably some institutions are no longer able to justify the risk of holding here. Private investors on the other hand, as their own taskmasters, are free to sit it out. Still, personally annoying not to have been paying proper attention in class from back in last summer,
mushypeas
12/4/2019
09:12
Yes SA, could be some of the share price drop is Corbyn/Mcdonnell regime discount being priced in. But, if so, a similar drop in Civitas's peers - or near peers - ought to be evident. Are you aware of any? I'm not as not invested in any other specifically Social Housing REIT. However, I hold a bigger stake in Impact Health Reit [IHR] which is largely dependent upon state financing of its tenants in its care homes; tenant income: 59% LA / 8% NHS / 33% private. In contrast to CSH, IHR has performed well recently: share price up ~7% past 3 months, RPI dividend raise for 2019-20....currently ~5.75%. Guess that while the risk from a Labour Gov't is potentially pretty crippling, in reality the rhetoric would prove far more deleterious than the reality. On t'other hand, these REITs won't suffer [directly] from the woes of business/financial downturns to the extent that most REITS will [very variable, as portfolios and length/terms of rental agreements vary widely]; at least their incomes will keep on coming in full to extent the downturn[s] prove to be merely cyclical and not 'structural'.
2sporrans
12/4/2019
07:46
Should also mention the political angle/Corbyn: "Discussions are well advanced for the introduction of a force majeure clause into new Civitas leases that will bring all parties together in the unlikely event of a change in law or government policy that permanently reduces the income received by registered providers (registered housing associations and local authorities) ("RPs"). The clause that we have evolved in conjunction with the sector is based on similar provisions found in many other long-income/infrastructure sectors and we are advised it will not alter the value of leases as it does not change any underlying risk or expectation of cashflows. However, it will address the specific concerns expressed around RPs and their exposure under leases to any future changes in law or government policy that affects their income and their ability to service leases."
spectoacc
12/4/2019
07:27
Agree on both those points - reminds me a bit of ESP. Was amused how totally quiet this (and another I'm watching)'s ADVFN BB's were - I get the impression it's the insts who are selling out, and some big (7-figure) trades implies that may be the case. Raising more money would seem to be out for all of them in current climate. Edit - this was interesting this morning, from RESI: "12 April 2019 Residential Secure Income plc Clarification following publication of regulator's report Residential Secure Income plc ("ReSI") (LSE: RESI), which invests in affordable shared ownership, retirement and local authority housing, notes the report "Lease-based providers of specialist supported housing" ("the Report") published on 4 April 2019 by the Regulator of Social Housing. For clarification, ReSI has never had any exposure to the specialised supported housing sector, the subject of the Report. ReSI's strict investment strategy means its acquisitions are limited to those assets with sufficient cashflows, counterparty credit quality and property security to be capable of supporting long-term investment grade equivalent debt. Accordingly, ReSI's Housing Association partners are typically large, credit-worthy institutions who own significant portfolios of property, currently including Places for People, owning or managing 198,000 homes and rated G1/V1, and Metropolitan Thames Valley, owning or managing 57,000 homes and rated G1/V2. " The way I understand it, only those with 1,000+ beds get a formal rating. The likes of CSH also deal with sub-1k bed, who don't receive a formal rating, but are now getting investigated (and in many cases, being found wanting). Sort of the sub-prime of the supported living world! :)
spectoacc
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