Civitas Social Housing Share Discussion Threads

[netcurtains] 05/4/2023 07:35

SteMiS: I'm afraid that was mainly over my head. It sounded like the plot of a US produced thriller.
😀

[stemis] 04/4/2023 23:28

Bit late to this but

rambutan2 16 Feb '23 - 16:30 - 644 of 683

No mention of costs etc:

Closing of c.GBP71m Five Year Term Facility

It's 5.69% as disclosed in subsequent events in interims. Currently valuing properties on a yield of 5.45% and borrowing at 5.69% !! An extra 0.5% on the property yield would knock another 13p off NAV/share.

I guess they are hoping that inflation will drive their rental income up enough to offset increased interest as caps and swaps run out (whilst also hoping that interest rates will be lower then). £357m debt at 5.69% (for example) would be another £8-9m a year (v run rate in H1). That's 14.5 - 16% on current £55m contracted annual rent roll. Could be tight...

[spoole5] 03/4/2023 16:51

Bid for MLI this morning at 40% premium to fri close, won't be the last.

[netcurtains] 03/4/2023 16:28

jonwig: What attracted me is probably what they all say.
NAV is double the Market Cap.
DIV yield is potentially 10%
The Share price is historically very low.
And looking at the price graph its possible it might stage
a little rally for a while.

So I bought a few.
But obviously I'm not totally sure so only got a small number.

[jonwig] 03/4/2023 16:19

net - there are some really good recent comments here. Should help you to decide.

[netcurtains] 03/4/2023 15:52

Hi,
I'm thinking this might be a bit of a recovery play.
Is this a possibility?
Any views?

[nicd] 03/4/2023 11:06

Opened this morning down 4%, now back up 0.5%, wonder who was selling

[williamcooper104] 27/3/2023 13:03

It's going to be very slow coming - even if the EU have already reformed Sol II so our insurers are now lagging behind But given the banking crisis regulators are going to be even more foot dragging on further deregulation - it'll be kicked to long grass for next government to deal with, and they'll probably just copy whatever the EU has done (or less)

[jimbo3352] 27/3/2023 13:00

Phoenix Insurance have set up a team in advance of solvency 2 reforms to identify investment opportunities in a number of areas including social housing per the Daily Telegraph today. Can’t come soon enough.

[williamcooper104] 27/3/2023 09:03

Yep that should work

[spoole5] 27/3/2023 08:38

17% divi cut at THRL, will this be next?

[chucko1] 24/3/2023 12:41

Yes, but I suppose you could always buy back in proportion to the non-levered proportion and so keep a constant LTV. Even that smaller amount, given the current maths, would be highly significant.

[williamcooper104] 24/3/2023 10:38

A few sales would help Problem with buy backs is you are then increasing leverage in a market that's not appreciative of high leverage

[lucydesouza] 24/3/2023 10:06

If I were in their shoes, I would pick a collection of properties from the portfolio that aren't wildly overvalued and have good quality customers that aren't subject to ongoing regulatory action, and sell them for cash. Then buy back stock with the proceeds. This would have three benefits: 1. it would give the impression that the portfolio is not overvalued. 2. It would give them fire power to buy back stock, close the NAV discount. 3. It would be a clear signal that they are actually acting in shareholders' best interests.

They have a portfolio of hundreds of properties worth, apparently, a billion quid on leases that are, apparently, backed by government rents.

But I think we all know the problem with this...

[spoole5] 22/3/2023 16:04

Suspend the shares and find a buyer?!

[lucydesouza] 22/3/2023 13:12

The most obvious way to do that is to sell some property and buy back stock. Maybe they could get Li Ka Shing to buy some houses at "book" value through the fund CIM run for him. That would certainly shore things up (but of course would be another related party transaction).

[spoole5] 22/3/2023 12:59

The Board remains active in exploring ways to address the discount to NAV as a priority. From the interims 6th Dec.

[spoole5] 22/3/2023 12:36

Discount 52% yield now 10.5

[spoole5] 21/3/2023 16:39

What's the LTV, 30%?

[williamcooper104] 21/3/2023 15:56

Lol I've got some HOME I'd sell by private treaty for 25p So that's clearly the pick

[spectoacc] 21/3/2023 15:54

Uncovered divi, debt cost only going to rise, only collected 96% of rent when you'd really expect a consistent 100%.

On plus side, longer track record than most, A & B rated newer properties, surely a growing sector.

I think the debt cost ultimately sinks the divi, but not clear to what extent.

[spoole5] 21/3/2023 15:50

Probably THRL

[spectoacc] 21/3/2023 14:42

Joining THRL & SOHO, but not - as @Wc104 will point out - HOME ;)

Tho HOME will very likely go out at an ATL.

If you had to buy one of them - with a gun to your head - not an easy choice.