Civitas Social Housing Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 20/1/2023 13:24

Capex can only come from reduced rents/extra rent frees - as at least some of HOMEs tenants are demanding

[williamcooper104] 20/1/2023 13:23

Yep - SOHO is clearly at risk - I've no crystal ball but if there's a major reset in values then likely covenants are breached Lenders are being hyper aggressive on covenants; and why not even if values half they can often get out at par and there's plenty of PE money circulating to "help" borrowers who don't have the equity to cure an LTV breach So the risk is either expensive mezz/loan to own or distressed rights issue Before anyone mentions the homeless - you've probably stayed at some point in a hotel in administration and not noticed - all of this can happen without any impact on tenancy

[spectoacc] 20/1/2023 13:18

@pmuysgrove123 - correct me if I'm wrong (my expertise is mainly HOME), but have CSH actually built anything? Or bought anything newly built? HOME haven't - an SPV buys up some HMOs, flogs them to another SPV, which sells them on to HOME. Many are ready-tenanted.

[dlp6666] 20/1/2023 13:13

@williamcooper104

Do your comments at #547 extend to SOHO too (gearing c.38%)?

[ghhghh] 20/1/2023 12:59

WC

CSH

Similar, perhaps their assets are better run, but they won’t escape lease restructuring, and they don’t look like they have the balance sheet for it, so distressed rights issue or worse

Can you please explain? The issue is tenants can't afford the inflation indexation but simply remedied by negotiation. Would this be a default of a debt obligation?

If not, why will CSH need a rescue RI? LTV is 33% and plenty of headroom?

[pmusgrove123] 20/1/2023 12:41

Having been an RSL developer I can assure you that not all have been "bandits". As an example; the cost of a 60 flat scheme would be about £8 million (and before anyone gets their calculators out and says that it as a lot for 60 flats don't forget that in a SSL scheme each flat requires a further 40% of floor space for communal areas). The only way to get that to stack up against 25 years of rent (which is in itself capped) is to get further capital either from central Government or charities. The regulators are well aware of all of these figures and will not wish to stop any further developments to allow vulnerable people to live in their own homes rather than in expensive institutions or, even worse, hospital.

[lucydesouza] 20/1/2023 12:08

The developers have been making out like bandits, and this has heavily inflated asset prices and rents (assuming the REITs aren't telling porkies about their rental income). The regulator won't want that situation to continue. Whether they have the clout to do anything about it, I don't know. I'm just wondering whether the Home situation will be what breaks the dam.

[pmusgrove123] 20/1/2023 11:09

Why do you think the CSH leases will be restructured? The Regulator will not wish to increase the cost of capital in this market. They would wish RSLs to keep developing and to do that they will need capital.

[lucydesouza] 20/1/2023 11:09

Yeah, I think I agree.

[spectoacc] 20/1/2023 11:03

@Wc104 - where does the CapEx cash come from? SPVs will be empty.

[williamcooper104] 20/1/2023 10:54

HOME Rents get cut, leases restructured, capex gets spent on the homes, management and BoD changes, huge asset write downs taken, life goes on Risk to that thesis - management/BoD - they keep digging, refuse to recognise reality, more concerned about own liability CSH Similar, perhaps their assets are better run, but they won't escape lease restructuring, and they don't look like they have the balance sheet for it, so distressed rights issue or worse

[lucydesouza] 20/1/2023 10:48

Couple of questions (and I genuinely don't mean these to be loaded):

1. What do you guys think will happen to Home?
2. Do you think the outcome will impact CSH?

[lucydesouza] 19/1/2023 15:10

Yep. Seem like nice guys, huh!?

[hybrasil] 19/1/2023 13:26

Just googled Topland

Just look at the legal case they were in!

They say on their website they are in social housing in the uk and Ireland

[lucydesouza] 19/1/2023 13:24

Yes. Topland flipped a lot of properties into CSH. They also loaned money to First Priority, which leased the properties back from CSH. First Priority ran into problems. That's all a few years ago now - I'm simply using them as an example of wealthy, controversial offshore investors who have profited handsomely from all this.

[wskill] 19/1/2023 12:35

Topland group is that who you are referring to LucyDeSouza who own hallmark hotels and many other properties.

[hybrasil] 19/1/2023 10:51

William

I think its even worse than that

[williamcooper104] 18/1/2023 16:54

And push out the valuation yields to something more like a HMO That way you show to government that there's not excessive profits But to do that you have to admit that current shareholders have been totally mugged

[williamcooper104] 18/1/2023 16:52

Yep Far better sensible private sector led reforms are put in place with key stake holders - eg agreeing sensible rental levels, rent terms (actually given SPV/charity covenants it's actually in the landlords interest to have shorter not longer leases) Lest labour government comes in in a few years and just imposes something very onerous

[lucydesouza] 18/1/2023 16:47

The sector needs reform. It's swimming with scum bags. The regulator needs bolstered and given proper powers. Not going to happen in this parliament, but maybe the bond holders will get worried and do something if the bad press continues.

[williamcooper104] 18/1/2023 16:38

That's the critical thing A full kitchen sink and management changes and might be tempted But brazening it out and it's a sell The last RNS attempting to blame rent collection problems on short sellers suggests the latter alas Hopefully some major shareholding's can batter the BoD

[lucydesouza] 18/1/2023 16:05

Depends what you mean by historic. The Herleva and CPI Care transactions were in the year to March '22. In other words, they were some of the most recent acquisitions made by CSH.

[spectoacc] 18/1/2023 15:16

@Wc - good point, any more levered and they'd definitely be toast. Feels 50:50 from here, and intrigued to know if BDO/KF/the board will kitchen sink it, or if they'll genuinely keep trying to brazen it out. Either looks terminal for management.

[williamcooper104] 18/1/2023 15:14

HOME, in a competitive market, seems to be winning on worst, most obviously incompetent, management But their balance sheet is worth something; the short report got the timing right in that it was just before results, but wrong in that it was also shortly after HOME had raised equity rather than after it had spent and levered it