City Pub Share Discussion Threads

[darrin1471] 27/9/2023 10:13

Profits on freehold pubs would be losses if they had to pay rent or interest was payable on the valuation of the property. CPC are buying a loss making group of pubs where a family member holds a chunk of shares.
CPC think there will be opportunities to expand as bargains appear in the sector but don't consider the falling value of their own loss making pubs.
Falling city office rents and valuations have to trickle through to lower retail and pub valuations in those localities.
Hold no position and happy to hear an opposite view.

[apad] 27/9/2023 09:34

Here are my comments on another board.

"CPC are continuing to buy shares for cancellation in the market. My recent purchases are looking good and the buyback provides a floor. Management have built and sold a pub business before. This business has none of the legacy issues of the industry and has been able to hoover up real assets at depressed prices. It's a jewel in an out of favour sector."

Your prediction of 'nearer 100p' is entirely rational, but people aren't buying shares and until the general sentiment changes a fairer valuation won't happen. In the meantime the buying opportunity is a gift that keeps on giving.

apad

[apad] 27/9/2023 09:29

Plenty ot time for your ankle to mend, W13Ken.....back to the pub crawl. 😊
apad

Reminder:
"I work in the City of London so it was about time that I'd start taking a closer look at City Pub Group's 16 London pubs. It's a tough job...

First off I peeked in at Daly's Wine Bar on the Strand. It was on the quiet side but most customers were eating. This was at about 2pm on a Thursday so I'll revisit after work on another occasion.

Next was The Nell Gwynne, a tiny characterful pub dating back hundreds of years that serves a number of real ales. It's just around the corner from The Adelphi Theatre on the Strand and although it was pretty busy with tourists, it doesn't take many to fill it.

Finally for today I stopped for a drink in the Bow Street Tavern opposite the main entrance of the Royal Opera House in Covent Garden. This was my favourite place and there was a good mix of people eating and drinking. There are are 3 floors upstairs but going was temporarily discouraged due to a private function and renovation work on the first floor. I had a chat with Charlotte, who was running the pub and she kindly let me take a quick look upstairs after I mentioned I was a CPC shareholder. There are loads of nooks and crannies to explore on the other floors and a couple of nicely decorated function rooms (one of which was occupied) and a small roof terrace.

It's a really appealing popular place with good beer and it gets the Opera crowd in the evenings too. I asked whether Clive Watson ever visits and was told that he does and it's a good morale boost for the team.

There are a couple of other pubs that I'll visit in the coming weeks but good first impressions today. London was buzzing today so I'm optimistic for the half year results near 21st September and expect the shareprice to be nearer 100p than 85p after them."

[deanos31] 22/9/2023 13:23

I've sold out of these a few weeks ago after buying a year ago on the results and share buy back. In 2022 they were going to buy back £2 million with option of a further £1 million. They only bought back £1.3 million in the end after they moved the goal posts. Now they are buying back again but the trust has gone for me and I doubt they will spend the £1.5 and even if they do the share price is not as low as last year so won't have as big an impact other than maybe hold the price.

[w13ken] 12/9/2023 12:24

Parked at the moment Apad as I've done my ankle in. I'd like to say it was a during a cage fight but it was just a pot-holed pavement in Farringdon.
Will get back to it in time.
Looks like many of the pubs are showing the Rugby World Cup, which would seem to fit in well with the demographic of the CPC pubs and should be good for business.

[apad] 12/9/2023 11:27

Bought a couple of times this morning at 86.4p.
Out of favour sector.
Cheap share.

apad

[alan@bj] 12/9/2023 10:35

Interim results can’t be long. Last year’s were announced on September 21st.

[apad] 12/9/2023 10:15

How's the pubcrawl going W13Ken?

apad

[apad] 25/8/2023 21:47

...and the order of 1.5years of revenue buys the whole company. 😊

apad

[w13ken] 25/8/2023 19:33

Darrin, it's true that I've held for a while. I see company strengths as good leadership, premium pubs in good affluent areas, strong recovery post Covid including a rationalisation of costs e.g. menus at pubs reduced from 45 to 2 core menus with their most popular food, more pubs on the way with Mosaic, share buybacks, the fact that they could be a takeover target (Watson has sold businesses at a profit before) and - an underrated one - popular accommodation at a number of pubs/hotels where profit contributions will be higher.
People are out drinking, eating, staying over now so I think profits will grow.
Happy to keep for the long-term.

[darrin1471] 25/8/2023 14:44

W13Ken. You have owned these shares for a while now. I owned some briefly. The mkt cap vs NAV is an attraction but I sold as they are not making any money.
With a "predominately freehold estate of 43 premium pubs" they are not paying any rent but net debt has increased from £5.5m in 09/22 to £8m in 06/23.
Pubs are in prime locations and busy but don't make any money even when not paying rent. If they are already busy, do they have the capacity to increase trade?
If you went to these pubs regularly would you be able to notice 5% more customers?
What I am missing here?

[apad] 25/8/2023 08:21

Thank you for sharing the results of such a difficult task.

apad

[w13ken] 25/8/2023 00:33

I work in the City of London so I thought it was about time that I'd start taking a closer look at City Pub Group's 16 London pubs. It's a tough job...

First off I peeked in at Daly's Wine Bar on the Strand. It was on the quiet side but most customers were eating. This was at about 2pm on a Thursday so I'll revisit after work on another occasion.

Next was The Nell Gwynne, a tiny characterful pub dating back hundreds of years that serves a number of real ales. It's just around the corner from The Adelphi Theatre on the Strand and although it was pretty busy with tourists, it doesn't take many to fill it.

Finally for today I stopped for a drink in the Bow Street Tavern opposite the main entrance of the Royal Opera House in Covent Garden. This was my favourite place and there was a good mix of people eating and drinking. There are are 3 floors upstairs but going was temporarily discouraged due to a private function and renovation work on the first floor. I had a chat with Charlotte, who was running the pub and she kindly let me take a quick look upstairs after I mentioned I was a CPC shareholder. There are loads of nooks and crannies to explore on the other floors and a couple of nicely decorated function rooms (one of which was occupied) and a small roof terrace.

It's a really appealing popular place with good beer and it gets the Opera crowd in the evenings too. I asked whether Clive Watson ever visits and was told that he does and it's a good morale boost for the team.

There are a couple of other pubs that I'll visit in the coming weeks but good first impressions today. London was buzzing today so I'm optimistic for the half year results near 21st September and expect the shareprice to be nearer 100p than 85p after them.

[redartbmud] 21/8/2023 11:51

Thanks.

red

[deanos31] 21/8/2023 10:03

By my calculations they still had 950000 to spend so having the limit on number of shares will mean they only spend around another 300000 at current prices. The extra 1 million mentioned as an option won't be spent I imagine!

[deanos31] 21/8/2023 09:39

They haven't extended it was the option to extend. 5th October 2022 was the RNS. States an initial maximum value of GBP2 million worth of Ordinary Shares from the date of this announcement (the "Share Buyback Programme") with the option to extend the Share Buyback Programme by an additional GBP1 million. Seems they are moving the goal posts with a maximum number of shares to be bought.

[redartbmud] 21/8/2023 08:54

Deanos

What was the date of the RNS update that extended the buyback programme by £1m?

Thanks,

red

[apad] 21/8/2023 08:20

This was the original statement.
"The Company has given an irrevocable and non-discretionary instruction to Peel Hunt LLP and Liberum Capital Limited to spend £2million on buy backs with an option to extend the Share Buyback Programme by an additional GBP1 million. The buy back has to be completed by 20th Sept 2023."

I think they have a way to go.

I can't find an amendment.

apad

[alan@bj] 21/8/2023 07:07

Today’s RNS states, “On 17 October 2023 the Company amended the irrevocable and non-discretionary instruction to Liberum, acting as 'riskless' or 'matched' principal, in relation to the Programme, which will end no later than 20 September 2023”

Presumably that 17 October 2023 date is incorrect. Should it be 17 October 2022?

[deanos31] 30/6/2023 10:16

In reference to the purchase of the pubs recently I went back to look at the RNS for the buybacks and it states that " The Company has given an irrevocable and non-discretionary instruction to Peel Hunt LLP and Liberum Capital Limited to spend £2million on buy backs with an option to extend the Share Buyback Programme by an additional GBP1 million. The buy back has to be completed by 20th Sept 2023. From the April RNS they had spent £830,000 on the buybacks and since that RNS they have only bought 37,000 shares so they have around 1.1million to spend in the next 10 weeks or so to complete the buyback. At the very least that should support the price around these levels if not move it up to over the £1 mark.

[deanos31] 30/6/2023 10:04

Looks like they started to do the buy backs again after my message yesterday! Just in case I did influence the buy back can I just add that buying 1500 shares at a cost of less than £1500 out of the £1.1 million they have to spend on buy backs is a bit tight! ?

[1c3479z] 29/6/2023 21:55

they bought some mosaic therefore no more money for buy backs?

[alan@bj] 29/6/2023 16:59

Maybe they're going to buy another pub or two?

[deanos31] 29/6/2023 16:12

Any views as to why the buy backs have stopped? By my calculations they still have over £1m set aside to spend by the end of September 23. Rather than let the share price drift lower I would have thought they would buy a few!