City Pub Share Discussion Threads

[kalai1] 07/6/2023 14:14

City Pub Group issued an AGM trading update this morning. Trading continues to be strong for the first 23 weeks ended 4 June 2023 with sales up 20% on 2022. LFL sales improved by 13% on 2022 and would have been higher if not for recent train strikes. The strong LFL performance is being driven by the Group's strategy to further premiumise its estate, the cost environment is improving with clear evidence of cost abatement in some areas which should support margins in the year ahead. The Group's balance sheet remains strong with net debt of £8m, management are looking carefully at further acquisitions. The Group today announced that it had acquired a majority shareholding in the Mosaic Pub and Dining Group which adds another 9 pubs to the estate. Valuation is average on both PE and PS metrics, the share price can still double before returning to pre-Pandemic peaks. It also has solid positive momentum and has been rallying for 9 months. BUY...

...from WealthOracle

[hastings] 07/6/2023 08:48

Decent update this morning, steady progress in difficult times.

[w13ken] 10/5/2023 14:49

Good sentiment carried over from Wetherspoons today as their Q3 TU says "The company expects profits in the current financial year to be towards the top of market expectations."
CPC should also do well this year as many of their customers will not be heavily impacted by the financial crisis.

[hastings] 10/5/2023 11:39

Bought in very recently and in the process of setting up a call with Clive Watson, hopefully to coincide with the next update.

[felix99] 22/4/2023 09:47

If you read the statement he is saying the estate was independently valued at £150m in March 22. So basically the uplift is not on the balance sheet - it is the hidden value.

Property assets are in at roughly £99m and right of use assets ( leased pubs ) are in at £17.5m - you then have the Mosaic investments £6m . What exactly is in the Mar 22 valuation is what perhaps needs to be looked at as its not clear if it would include the Mosaic stuff as well. That will become clearer as to me it appears they intend to buy out right the Mosaic estate in the next few months or at least go over the 50% mark ( currently 48% ) at which point all these assets come onto the balaance sheet fully


Of course you have to factor in any charge in Value from Mar 22 to Mar 23 for the estate as well. Seems strange they have not revalued for Mar 23 unless they only do it every few years ( presumably when there is a nice uplift to report - yours cynically )

Either way I can smell a lot of hidden value in here - they have big facilities low debt and very good cashflow with a heavy depreciation charge so they are in fine fettle to pick and choose to add to the estate of real quality pubs - when the rest of the industry is struggling with lots of duff sites. As far as I can see every CPC site should be a top performer

Just buy and tuck away imho and wait for the value to come through in share price. If it doesnt then they might take it private is my only fear as they have plenty of property assets to leverage a buyout on . I think this should be trading nearer £1 easily to sell.

[jeffian] 18/4/2023 16:06

#240, see #238!

[smithie6] 18/4/2023 14:07

NAV

I make it ~£100million /107 million shares.

£100 million excludes non-current liability for leases.

93p/share

The value of 150p given in the RNS seems to be a blatant lie imo.

If I have made a mistake please let me know.

-----

One clear risk for the co. PAT is the impact of the % rise in wages & the rise in the official minimum wage this very April.
Wage costs is the biggest cost the company has & massive impact on the PAT.

[smithie6] 18/4/2023 13:06

darrin1471 write

"So despite owning £150m of pub property on which they pay no rent, they are not producing cash."

one has to be careful when analysing pub/hotel shares since if one looks just at the declared profit numbers & ignores the cashflow numbers then one can easily get a false impression of the financial perf.

as Darrin1471 points out....it is vital to always look at the cashflow numbers for any company.

(for pub/hotel shares there are often big annual costs for refurbishment which are in reality a cost of doing business (although normally excluded from the PAT numbers) & investors should really "include" in their own profit calcs, imho)

[jeffian] 18/4/2023 12:09

#236,
I like this company but I think they've been a bit naughty with presentation. I thought the expression "· Current valuation of the estate of £160 million equating to NAV of 150p per share" seemed a bit odd and designed to make people think that the NAV per share was 150p. The pubs are valued at £160m/107.37 shares in issue = 149p but if you go to the balance sheet and look at the NAV adjusted for debt etc it is £93.623m/107.37m shares = 87p.

Hmmm!

[qs99] 18/4/2023 11:49

Agreed, apologies no idea how posted twice above, fat fingers probs.

[w13ken] 18/4/2023 11:36

Have also topped up in the ISA today. NAV based on the estate is 150p so the company is undervalued and in much better shape nowadays with refurbished and more effectively managed pubs.

[qs99] 18/4/2023 10:55

confident update IMO....net debt down Q1 23 13% up and ahead of expectations, likely more share buybacks and Adj EBITDA improving....should be way over a quid IMO and have bought some more accordingly this am.....DYOR

[qs99] 18/4/2023 10:55

confident update IMO....net debt down Q1 23 13% up and ahead of expectations, likely more share buybacks and Adj EBITDA improving....should be way over a quid IMO and have bought some more accordingly this am.....DYOR

[qs99] 18/4/2023 10:41

Nice update

[darrin1471] 24/1/2023 13:35

Not holding currently and remain sceptical.

LFL sales compared to 2019 were 3% up. Taking into consideration inflation then volumes will be down.

Debt is £5m vs £13.8m but CPC sold 6 pubs in April bringing in £17m. So despite owning £150m of pub property on which they pay no rent, they are not producing cash.

[thecroots] 24/1/2023 12:35

Results look sound to me. More positive than i thought. Good tuck away share this

[wad collector] 13/1/2023 17:17

Does look like the worst is behind CPC now, though today's boost is probably from the latest spending data suggesting World Cup drinking has boosted the sector.

[qs99] 13/1/2023 14:53

Nice tick up today...

[darrin1471] 05/1/2023 13:08

Maybe 2 weeks. 20/01 last year.

[alan@bj] 05/1/2023 12:49

Small tick up today. Trading update next week?

[oapknob1] 03/11/2022 14:19

Why has the buy back stalled ?

[qs99] 25/10/2022 09:40

looks like 80p the next threshold to be passed IMO DYOR!