City Pub Share Discussion Threads

[qs99] 14/10/2022 14:37

80p next week at this rate IMO...DYOR, but ADVFN behind on the price as 71p currently being paid on the offer it seems....DYOR

[qs99] 14/10/2022 09:37

Continuing to be strong....80p next threshold?...DYOR

[qs99] 10/10/2022 11:02

Probably used for settling options in future IMO...great to see director buying, should see more of a squeeze this week IMO / DYOR...

[oapknob1] 07/10/2022 17:20

shares are held in treasury, including shares which have been purchased but not yet settled.Not cancelling?Director buying too

[qs99] 07/10/2022 15:51

Little stock, buyback in action, boom let's get ourselves motoring....GLA! DYOR

[qs99] 07/10/2022 13:11

Nice update from Rockwood this morning as an investor singing praises of undervalued stocks, including this one! DYOR

[qs99] 05/10/2022 08:44

Not even an hour into the buyback and moving sharply, having tried to buy in size this morning I couldn't had to do with smaller chunks, so personally happy to see this squeezed beyond 75p at this rate as above. DYOR

[qs99] 05/10/2022 08:26

chuff all stock around though, so a share buy back IMO could push this back over 70-75p but as you say, they also need trading to keep going steadily enough to get it much much higher....DYOR

[disc0dave45] 21/9/2022 14:03

darrinI think the eps of 0.07p is the statutory number. Not too certain though but their headline was that adjusted pbt was £1.3m (zero tax), which gives an eps 1.2p.For 2017 & 2018 H2 was +55% to H1, in 2019 it was +2.2x. Taking the 2019 data that's a possible 3.8p eps for the year best case. So on PE of 15x which seems a tad high to me but looks like they could at a stretch beat consensus of 3.46p (Chronic Investor!) providing H2 is on a par with 2019 (have also seen a consensus of 4.4p eps though). Guess a potential beat explains the price action combined with the buyback news - strange decision and IMO I would say it's more likely that they won't achieve consensus forecasts.

[darrin1471] 21/9/2022 12:24

I still see CPC as undervalued compared to the pub estate valued at £150m but I was very unimpressed with the H1 update.
I bought quite a few over the last 3 trading days and sold them all this morning except the 6% profit which I have kept as "free shares". I consider myself very fortunate that the shares went up on H1 results. The only thing that kept them up was their NAV and the 40% fall since June.

LFL May 22 was +5% on 2019 (AGM update). No mention of LFL in H2, so I have to assume that news is not positive.

Net debt today is £5.5m up from £1.8m in June 22. Where are the profits?

H1 eps 0.07p (£0.0007). 4.57p is what the analysts have down for the full year. I will need to look back at previous years to see what H1/H2 split is.

CPC own £150m of pub property, so they pay no rent but make no profit. If they had to rent them or were mortgaged, they would be making a significant loss.
If you rented out the pubs and got a 5% return you would earn 7.25p per share

"The Nest" development in Bath which in June they said was opening in August is now due to open in October

H1 results were lacking in numbers and specifics.

No breakdown of increasing costs. Wages, supplies and energy.

I think all pubs will have a good November/December due to the World Cup and a Omicron free Christmas but rising interest rates are going to bite in 2023 and beyond for the CPC customer.

[darrin1471] 21/9/2022 08:21

Buy back makes sense at current low share price.
Pub estate valued at £150m and market cap currently £60m (£55m yesterday)
£3m buyback on £60m is equivalent to a 5% dividend.

[oapknob1] 21/9/2022 07:07

Share buy back £3 million over 12 months. No dividend.

[simon gordon] 16/9/2022 10:39

Record monthly volume:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[darrin1471] 15/9/2022 11:13

Interim results on Wednesday, 21 September 2022.

I have been wanting to buy before the results but the seller has kept me on the side-lines for the last couple of weeks. Taken the plunge today and will buy again Friday and Tuesday to average.

Weather has been good, so a little concerned that the pub portfolio may not have fully benefitted from outside trade during the summer.
CPC first to report, so it may be a turning point for pubs in general.

Directors were buying decent amounts at around double the current price in April/May/June

[darrin1471] 15/9/2022 11:12

Lindowcross. Strongly agree that CPC target market is less likely to be effected by energy costs that are only just filtering through to direct debits.
For me this is mainly a 6 month trade culminating in boom November/December trade vs 2021 which was affected by Omicron and in anticipation of additional world cup sales.
IMO interest rates continue to rise in H1 23 without any fall in 23. Higher renewed fixed rate mortgages will hit CPC customers harder than energy prices and that will hurt for 2 years minimum.

[darrin1471] 14/9/2022 18:24

678,656 @50p went through at 12:29
Bid 53p offer 56p
Trade did not show on ADVFN trades until after 16:30

Similar thing has been happening for the last few weeks
128,370 @ 50p on 02/09/2022 at 16:42

[darrin1471] 14/9/2022 14:37

Trades have looked a little abnormal the last couple of weeks. Large trades above 100k often reported late and below bid price ?
Strong seller matched with a buyer who naturally wants to pay a lower price?

[smackeraim] 08/9/2022 13:38

Probably a bottom of sorts being put in here with gov support for business and consumers. Gas prices are falling, oil is down, inflation will steady later this year imo

[ny boy] 06/9/2022 17:44

Maybe but just looks like another dead cat bounce in an ever increasingly bad bear market, these two months could be very rocky, hope to add a few more if we see new lows, a move back to 70-80p is possible if we don’t revisit the S&P June lows imo

[darrin1471] 06/9/2022 15:18

Bounce across consumer discretionary stocks due to expectation of Truss spending on energy cap that will leave more money for consumers to spend

[wad collector] 06/9/2022 14:49

Bit of a bounce today for no obvious reason. Results must be 2 weeks off, I can't find a date.
I note that the optimism about those director buys in April and May was followed by about a 50% share price fall. So they are not useful predictors...

[ny boy] 06/9/2022 11:21

Hopefully the start of a decent recovery! Took a few Virgin Wines (VINO) @ 50p for longer term recovery, let’s see what Auntie Lizzie has to say about tackling rising energy costs etc. dyor as usual

[ny boy] 05/9/2022 09:53

I bought in on the pull back in April, thought that was good value and now looks even more rewarding if you take a longer term perspective. Challenging markets indeed but also some selective opportunities dyor as usual.

[darrin1471] 04/8/2022 13:34

Positive market reaction to April results was in contrast to the wider pub sector which has been falling for the past year. Looks to me like CPC is just catching up on the sector falls.
Not holding at the moment. Waiting for markets next leg down before buying into the sector. Expecting bumper YoY Christmas trading for the sector without covid and the world cup starting in November.