Cineworld Share Discussion Threads

[remarkomsoc] 13/3/2020 07:54

People are sick of Hollywood anyway

[frazboy] 13/3/2020 07:50

Don’t know why the board think 3 months is the worst case scenario. Until herd immunity is built up, this virus will continue circulating, surely?

[remarkomsoc] 13/3/2020 07:48

Natasha brilliant???

[johnma] 13/3/2020 07:39

N INCineworld Group PLCCineworld says coronavirus could threaten its ability to stay in businessShares tumble as cinema chain warns theatre closures could cost it three months' revenue March 12, 2020 2:48 pm by Myles McCormick and Antonia Cundy in LondonCineworld has warned that the impact of the coronavirus could leave it unable to pay its debts and remain in business, cutting the market value of the world's second-largest cinema chain by almost a fifth.The group said on Thursday that, while it had yet to experience any material financial hit from the spread of Covid-19, in a worst-case scenario of cinema closures, it could lose up to three months of revenue, leaving it at risk of breaching its debt covenants.That in turn would "indicate the existence of a material uncertainty which may cast significant doubt about the group's ability to continue as a going concern", it said. The company's debt sits at $3.6bn and it has a revolving credit facility of $462.5m, of which $95m or 20.5 per cent has been drawn down. Its covenants are triggered if Cineworld draws down more than 35 per cent, a threshold the company said it did not expect to hit.Cineworld is also in the process of completing a deal to buy Cineplex, the Canadian cinema operator, which will be funded through an additional loan of roughly $2bn.Its shares fell 49 per cent before paring losses to sit 21 per cent lower in afternoon trading.The latest share price tumble leaves Cineworld stock down roughly 70 per cent since the start of this year, as investors worry about the impact on box office attendance of the coronavirus outbreak, which has killed more than 4,600 people and infected more than 126,000 worldwide.The closure of cinemas in Asia and the delayed release of the new James Bond movie are expected to hit revenues hard. Cineworld operates 787 cinemas across 10 territories, led by the US and the UK and Ireland. Mooky Greidinger, Cineworld chief executive and its biggest shareholder, said the company would reduce the impact of worsening coronavirus conditions through cost cuts and postponing capital spend. He said, however, that the company had not yet spoken to lenders about emergency liquidity if the situation deteriorated. "We are not worried," he told the Financial Times."About 70 per cent of our costs are variable. If we don't sell movies, we don't pay for the movies. If we don't sell Pepsi, we don't pay for the Pepsi," Mr Greidinger said. "Second, a lot of our temporary manpower, if we don't invite them to work if the cinemas are closed, we are also not paying them."He added that the group was looking into the law around stopping rent payments as it sought to control costs.RecommendedCineworld: pandemic plot twistThe comments came as Cineworld announced its results for 2019. It brought in revenues of $4.7bn, down 6 per cent from the previous year. Pre-tax profit was down 40 per cent to $212m.Worries over the impact of the virus on box-office sales - coupled with the group's high debt levels - have already driven short sellers to push bets against Cineworld to a record high."The leverage is a huge issue, it all comes down to this issue of covenants and liquidity," said Natasha Brilliant, a director at Citigroup. "They almost come across as quite blasé about it?.?.?.?They talk about the next three months but potentially the impact of coronavirus might be longer than that.""I was quite bullish a week ago but the coronavirus has just completely overtaken the debate, nobody is really focused on the medium-term outlook. The situation could escalate quite quickly," Ms Brilliant added. Copyright The Financial Times Limited . All rights reserved. Please don't copy articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.View comments

[werethereisawill] 13/3/2020 00:03

Just been to the movies :Vin Diesel lots of action very entertaining with lots of social distancing !
PS
Wash your hands !

[growthpotential] 13/3/2020 00:02

I was at cineworld on Sunday and saw The Invisible Man. Plenty of people there even for a Sunday. The virus really isn't a big deal, be cautious yes. The UK gov is not going down the same route as other countries like Italy

[gisjob2] 12/3/2020 20:37

Schools to stay open for now. Therefore the expectation is to attend. Social events are different.

Plus one of the biggest film releases of the year has been canned. What will the people who are willing to risk it be watching in a months time ?. if you believe all the other releases will be ok you're Barmy.

If the company hadn't racked up billions of debt it would be fine. Unfortunately it has and there has to be less risky investments to take a chance on at the moment. Practically everything is half the price it was a fortnight ago.

[williamcooper104] 12/3/2020 20:36

The EV is a bargain - the equity most certainly is not It's not impossible that D for E/rescue rights does not happen Would imagine temporary non rent payment and covenant waivers will be manangable - nobody will want to enforce at this time The key thing is just how long cine can survive with very limited revenue Missing interest payments may not be so easy to manage though - one thing to breach covenants another to interest default cine even before CV 19 needed to do a rights issue - if it .makes it through cv 19 then it comes out with a lot more debt - so if not D4E then a discounted rights issue

[bergster56] 12/3/2020 20:03

Great. You don't have a choice to go to go school but you do choose to go to the cinema

[werethereisawill] 12/3/2020 18:44

Schools are to stay open therefore cinemas too will stay open !

[bergster56] 12/3/2020 17:42

Are you joking?

[bergster56] 12/3/2020 17:42

Anyone think this ain't going bust yet?

[gisjob2] 12/3/2020 17:37

They do if there's a chance of dying or passing the virus on to an older relative who may become ill or die.

[werethereisawill] 12/3/2020 16:46

Not just hold buy it’s a bargain !
Women ( and men !)don’t buy the latest gear to stay at home in front of their TV sets !

[pedr01] 12/3/2020 15:24

The worst case scenario is very specific and includes 1)TOTAL LOSS OF REVENUE for between one and three months which is never going to occur since there are (best guess) 3600 Unlimited subscribers per site. I would estimate worst case (finger in air) that 25% would cancel, as long term subscribers get extra benefits eg free 3D (ie no uplift for 3D movies)and reduce food costs etc which they would lose in the event of cancelling

The 2013 Annual report quotes 371000 subscribers across 102 sites but these figures have not been provided in recent past. The 2017 report states 232 site, so I would estimate 850,000 subscibers.

Plus, some of the sale and leasebacks was to related parties so room to manoevre there as well.


They EXPLICITLY state that "Only the specific downside scenario detailed above would indicate the existence of a material uncertainty which may cast significant doubt about the Group's ability to continue as a going concern." .... Of course, could be a case of trying to steady the ship, so to speak.


If it had gone towards 25p I was going to risk circa £50k as risk reward seemed OK at that level ... c'est la vie.

Good luck to everyone holding. Hoping it ends well.

[via con] 12/3/2020 14:45

FWIW I read this from The Guardian via MSN

Coronavirus chaos could mean curtains for Cineworld

[bo90] 12/3/2020 13:41

it is, have you tried to sell shares that you don't have in ya portfollio? go on try it! only a bet with an index can be placed and that's not really trading with actualstock

[werethereisawill] 12/3/2020 13:33

Shorting should be illegal in my opinion
The government is to help small businesses and cinemas especially cineworld are smack in the middle of them they have to survive together

[growthpotential] 12/3/2020 13:24

I'm holding too

[gisjob2] 12/3/2020 13:06

Think you'll need to wait longer than a month for this to blow over. More like 6 to 8 months if CINE survives in the meantime.

[gbyak] 12/3/2020 12:40

45p to 75p

I did tell them to cover

[gbyak] 12/3/2020 12:39

lol

I have no position in cine he says

Of course not

See you at 120p in a month

The company will survive and prosper

[sphere25] 12/3/2020 12:37

It's just a short covering, oversold rally.

Read the post below, when the stock was triple where it is now:

"This company is in massive trouble"

"Anyone investing here should exercise extreme caution and be prepared to lose a significant proportion of their investment"

You are playing with fire here and there is now a stronger possibility (as per the going concern statement) that the equity will be a wipeout here. Debt is always the killer and this macho debt binge has been absolutely wreckless.

If you are buying here to hold, you are taking an ENORMOUS RISK. If you cannot help yourself, only punt what you can afford to lose, because this is even more of an absolute disaster waiting to happen.

No position here, but once more being a good Samaritan


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sphere25 - 09 Feb 2020 - 15:00:13 - 2089 of 2213 CINEWORLD - CINE
Absolutely convinced I posted on this board on the 16th December when another acquistion was announced, citing the excesses here with debt ballooning to unacceptable levels that could easily now become perilous for this company.

Unsure if the post was removed, but it doesn't matter, can make the point now that this company's strategy is out of control. Debt is always the killer and the expansion here is absolutely reckless imo.

Anyone investing here should exercise extreme caution and be prepared to lose a significant proportion of their investment.

News out from Bucephalus Research Partnership:



Not heard of them prior so easy to dismiss any of their points if you so wish, but the liabilities and the market itself (CINE can't even hit their forecasts) is there for all to be seen. Shorts are crawling ALL OVER THIS - just look at the number of funds and the amount shorted in total. It's highly irregular behaviour to have a stock like this to be shorted by so many funds.

You can read into that anyway you so wish, but this company is in massive trouble imo and the shorts absolutely know it. They should absolutely not have made that last acquistion. Folk will go on about synergies etc, but the hole CINE are now in is very deep.

I suspect this will end very badly so this is just a general warning to investors.

This is just an opinion.

I have no position in CINE.

Always DYOR.

Sphere - once more being a good Samaritan.

[gbyak] 12/3/2020 12:17

They're all scrambling trying to cover