Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Cineworld Group Plc LSE:CINE London Ordinary Share GB00B15FWH70 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.48 -2.16% 21.72 1,427,303 09:47:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
21.56 21.73 22.46 21.10 22.46
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Travel & Leisure 1,334.67 -523.77 -30.47 298
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
09:57:11 O 55,272 21.6117 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
30/3/202218:21BURN CINE SHORTS238
14/1/202209:11MILLSTONE INVESTOR 8
02/11/202108:39CINE debts of Ј4 billion? Will it go the way of the dodo-
04/2/202121:03 share price in August -

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Cineworld Daily Update: Cineworld Group Plc is listed in the Travel & Leisure sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker CINE. The last closing price for Cineworld was 22.20p.
Cineworld Group Plc has a 4 week average price of 20p and a 12 week average price of 20p.
The 1 year high share price is 88.28p while the 1 year low share price is currently 20p.
There are currently 1,372,169,710 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 3,965,518 shares. The market capitalisation of Cineworld Group Plc is £293,095,450.06.
lthtrust: Deltalo, Cineworld's loss after tax was $565.8 Million in 2021. Cineworld's Adjusted loss after tax was $655.7 Million in 2021. Source Cineworld's 2021 Annual report. June 2022 month to date (MTD) total US gross box office revenues are currently 89.9% of June 2019 MTD. Accounting for 6% ticket price inflation (likely more), June 2022 US total admissions are very approximately 84.8% of June 2019 MTD. US 2022 Year to date (YTD) total US gross box office revenues are currently 64.4% of 2019 YTD. Accounting for 6% ticket price inflation (likely more), 2022 US total admissions are very approximately 60.8% of 2019 YTD. Source Boxofficemojo now. Cineworld's BASE CASE is for cineworld's 2022 US Admissions to be 85% of 2019 Admissions throughout 2022.
henchard: My thinking at the moment: Previously CINE announced that lenders had agreed waivers a month or so before the covenant test. They haven't done this time. That might be good or it might be bad. I can't see there's any way CINE will have generated enough operating cash flow to get the $300m needed to avoid the 30 June covenant test. It might just be possible, as Jak says, by delaying payments to creditors etc. But I think it highly unlikely they have enough levers to pull to find $300m. Which would mean having to find a further debt facility (borrowing from Peter to pay Paul) or raising the money in some other way. Maybe a sale and leaseback of property, but not sure how much scope there is for that, let alone how much appetite there would be for it from the buyer side. My guess is that CINE has tried to get a waiver from lenders for the 30 June test but, unlike in the past, hasn't managed to and it would need a last minute capitulation from lenders to agree it. Either way, the huge increase in debt from the already over-leveraged pre-pandemic level and the now astronomical costs of servicing it, plus all the lease liabilities that CINE managed to defer, mean that even if the business is firing on all cylinders, shareholders will see no benefit from it. The revenue will largely be gobbled up by COGS, plc/admin costs, lenders and landlords. Leaving CINE with a need for covenant waivers ad infinitum which just isn't going to happen.
jaknife: There is no news on the 30th June, it will be End of September, which is why they pushed the half yearly results to September. IR already confirmed this That's a hopelessly unrealistic comment. Cineworld have very clearly explained that the only way that they can avoid default on 30 June is either: (a) pay down 65% of the RCF in order to make sure that the springing covenant doesn't apply (ie find c. $300m of cash down the sofa), or (b) get the banks to agree to defer the covenant test again. There's also the issue of the Regal Dissenting Shareholders (who are due to be paid on 30th June) but that's simply one of the multitude of issues that Cineworld have to deal with. *IF* CINE have, or have not, achieved (a) or (b) then that will be immediately obvious on 30th June and CINE will not be able to avoid providing an appropriate market update. The idea that Cineworld might meet the financial covenant on 30th June is for the fairies. CINE currently trade on a leverage ratio of 89x. The covenant is for a maximum of 5x! Forecasts are for CINE's leverage to be in the general ballpark on 30 June of 16x. That's why CINE have publicly stated that their objective is to pay down c. $300m of the RCF in order to ensure that the financial covenant isn't tested. JakNife
jaknife: Werethereisawill, There is a big difference between forecasting, based on historic numbers and current trends, vs wanting a share price to come down. Of course I don't want the company to fail. But sadly that's highly unlikely and I'm surprised how many people can't see it: 1. CINE's current trading is materially below what it has told the market that it needs to hit in order to be trading as a going concern. They need to find c. $300m by 30th June in order to pay down the RCF and avoid the financial covenant on the RCF being tested since they will fail that covenant test (leverage must be below 5, the most recent leverage calculation was 89x and forecast leverage at 30 June is c. 16x). 2. Assuming that they magically find the necessary cash to pay down the RCF then they also need to convince the Regal Dissenting Shareholders to defer repayment that is due on 30th June as CINE seemingly don't have the cash to pay them on time. 3. But assuming that they play ball then the next hurdle is the Cineplex legal case, which CINE have already lost but, despite that, have made no provision for in their recent accounts. CIEN need to win the appeal, which is due sometime in Sept/Oct, otherwise it's Game Over Player One. 4. They need the RCF for seasonal working capital so they need to cross their fingers and hope that the RCF banks will let them re-draw on the RCF during H2. If they do re-draw though then they will need to pay back a lot of the RCF at December year-end and then fully repay the RCF in Feb 2023. CINE have said that they need to refinance the RCF but given that CINE's last public credit rating was 1 out of 100 (the lowest possible credit rating) then it's unlikely that any bank will willingly lend to them if they have the choice. 5. During all of this, whilst they hope that trading gets back to normal, *IF* revenues get to 80% of the pre-covid 2019 comparable then the covenants will then be tested on all the various other loans. That would be bad news as the maximum leverage covenant on those is 5x and the current leverage ratio is 89x, forecast to drop to about 16x by June and to c. 12x by December. The forecast steady-state leverage ratio *IF* trading recovers to pre-covid levels is 8x! 6. Finally, the B1 Term loan is due to be refinanced by May 2024 and hence will become current in the June 30th 2023 interims. The financial covenant on that is set a maximum of 8x and it would be a brave man who forecast that a bank would refinance such a loan rather than simply calling default. Most sane people see this long list of issues and realise that it is inevitable that, at best CINE will need to have a capital restructuring and, at worst it's going to have to be placed into administration in order to properly clean up the balance sheet. There is no need for conspiracy theories when simple straightforward analysis works much more easily. JakNife
werethereisawill: Mill I share your comments re JakNife But it is clear he and others WANT the share price to go down! He like others wants us to panic and to sell sell sell I wonder if he is part of a large investment group ( pension? ) waiting and hoping for share price to go down to say 5p and then invest big time and get dividends which are sure to materialise soon !?
hpcg: Werethereisawill - Cineworld and its cinemas will remain open. It is pretty much certain that there will either be a CVA and next to no gap between the old ownership and new ownership, or Chapter 11 with a longer time period for the new ownership structure to come in to being. I now expect the share price to go to 0 before even the Cineplex appeal in the autumn. Any Regal dissenter could force Chapter 7 at any moment after a payment is missed and I imagine this threat is being used to get some return in the restructure. That is what I would be doing, I certainly would not be extending the repayment of monies owed to me into a period where I can expect to get nothing back. New CINE shares will almost certainly list in New York IMO. I really don't care for your or anyone else's money, I just make the observation that surely in this day and age investors can't ignore financial metrics entirely? At least with Afren longs pointed to assets, with Carillion to a dividend yield, or with Thomas Cook to a low PE, but here it is just their own use of the service. So consequently, as I wrote, I don't entirely believe all those pumping the stock actually own it.
lthtrust: Deltalo, Cineworld have changed their accounting practices since 2018, specifically in the area of lease liability debt (IFRS 16), also under IFRS 16 lease liability debt can be discounted off the balance sheet, the amount of lease liability debt that is discounted off the balance sheet depends on the incremental borrowing rates (IBRs) used. Take a look at the Annual Reports for information on the IBRs that cineworld are using. As you know Cineworld has declared losses of over $3.5 BILLION (before tax) since 2019.In 2019 Cineworld sold 35 US-based sites and used half the proceeds to pay a one-off special dividend of 20.27c per share. Cineworld's operating model is to lease and not own almost all of it's cinema's. As of the end of december 2021 cineworld had negative equity, it's equity attributable to equity holders of the group was minus $345.0 Million. This is from cineworld's 2021 annual report regarding IBRs: "On transition, the incremental borrowing rates applied to property leases ranged between 2.6% and 11.7%. The asset specific IBR applied to each lease was determined by taking into account the risk-free rate, adjusted for factors such as the credit rating linked to the life of the underlying lease agreement. These rates are intended to be long term in nature and calculated on inception of each lease. In 2020, the IBRs applied to property leases for the COVID-19 amendments ranged between 5.9% and 16.8% for modifications between March and September and ranged between 17.9% and 26.4% for modifications between October and December. In 2021, the IBRs varied primarily due to changes in the credit risk and market debt pricing.". This is from cineworld's 2019 Annual Report regarding Cineworld's operating model:" In line with the Group’s operating model (in terms of which we lease and not own almost all of our cinemas) and our long-term strategy of crystallising value for shareholders, during the year the Group completed two sale and leaseback transactions for a total of $556.3m, relating to 35 US-based sites. The Board utilised half of the proceeds to reduce gross debt and the other half to reward shareholders by way of a one-off special dividend of 20.27c per share.".
hpcg: Cineplex MD&A for Q1 has a few words about the action. Cineworld's appeal is a pretty pointless time delaying exercise as the judgement seems pretty factual that cineplex breached no covenants. Cineplex suggests they don't think CINE will have the money to pay anything and have thus not accrued any benefit in their accounts. httPs://
nobull: Being long or short in this stock is completely outside my tolerance for risk, but what intrigues me is why wouldn't Cineworld try to use its supposed rise in bankruptcy risk to bargain an out of court, lower damages settlement with Cineplex? Cineplex risks ending up with nothing, and in fact being worse off due to all its legal costs not being recovered. By negotiating a lower damages claim, Cineworld has a chance to survive while Cineplex gets back some value for the lost synergies. Just a thought. Edit, the more the share price falls, the more amenable Cineplex should become to an out-of-court settlement, I wonder?
hpcg: Although it is not until 2023 I think long posters are neglecting the appeal over the Cineplex compensation. Even if it were slashed to a tenth it would still tip CINE over the edge, if there is still an edge to tip over. So who on their right mind would buy into CINE at a higher price leading up to that? With the answer at "no one" then who in their right mind would buy now when there is no prospect of a higher share price leading up to the appeal hearing?
Cineworld share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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