Chesnara Share Discussion Threads

[dosser50] 10/11/2023 18:24

Very nice divi

[mister md] 10/11/2023 08:34

Very nice dividend received.

[aleman] 02/11/2023 17:16

LG - Gilts yields fell significantly across medium and long durations today so the yield curve got even more inverted. Even ignoring ongoing QT, this means policy got even tighter as it got even harder for banks to make a profit on loans - so they will lend even less. Yet shares somehow thought it was good news .... so, yes, today's rise looks like irrational exhuberance.

[cfro] 02/11/2023 15:53

This fund manager likes them (17.30m):



He reckons L&G might be a possible acquirer or M&A growth will continue to add value and dividends will continue to increase..

[lord gnome] 02/11/2023 14:57

Well then Aleman, either you see today's rise as irrational exuberance or the market sees the chance of a serious recession receding into the distance. I would hope for the latter but the jury is still out.

[aleman] 02/11/2023 14:01

Gold has repeatedly set new Sterling (and numerous other currency) highs in recent weeks so it's no surprise that financials should be having a tough time. Inverted yield curves (which suggest central banks have interest policy wrong), rising VIX and higher credit default swaps suggest rumblings in the finanical system. Anyone expecting share price strength for financials in such an environment must not have invested through a recession before.

[1knocker] 02/11/2023 13:43

I don't think Brexit is to blame!
The risks in financial stocks have increased (or are at least perceived to have increased) with increasing central bank and government manipulation to enable ever increasing public debt, and we just don't know what or where something will break as a consequence of the rapid reversal of 'low or negative interest rates for ever' to higher for longer'.
Also, there are many more high dividends available to compete with Chesnara.

I agree that there was a short period when this looked like breaking out of its range to the upside - my highest purchase was at 290, sold at at 315 - but the range pretty soon reverted back broadly to 270/300. working that range it was possible to make frequent modestly profitable round trips, cumulatively very respectably profitable.

Whether the 270/300 range will re-establish itself, or whether some new range will emerge remains to be seen.

the aspect of the share price which has long surprised me is that even when there were no particular question marks overhanging financial stocks, and when the dividend here was consistently and reliably rising, there seemed to be no incremental rise in the share price trading range to reflect the rising dividend. That is what leads me to wonder whether if the dividend is held (or heaven forbid is reduced) the share price may fall significantly.

[cassini] 02/11/2023 12:49

CWA,

Thanks for clarifying that SAN and INVR are not cumulative, I can see someone reading my post might have thought that and of course INVR is a bit of a unicorn in its own right being base-rate related.

I guess as always, people should do their own research before buying anything.

[makinbuks] 02/11/2023 12:33

Your comment re the £3 ceiling is broadly true since CVID struck but the five or so years prior to that CSN was consistently over £3 and peaked a couple of times over £4. I don't see any great change in the company fundamentals in these two periods, nor in its outlook for the five years ahead. This change in market valuation is not fundamental, therefore, so much as relative to alternative companies/sectors. Conditions will revert at some point. In the meantime there seeems little reason to hold or reduce the dividend

[1knocker] 01/11/2023 10:15

Chesnara has been an excellent trading long term hold for years, ranging very reliably between about 270 and a bit over 300. I have generally had buy and sell limit orders limit orders in at the ends of the range (they can be set and forgotten save for a bit of thought as the ex div dates approach), and have increased my holding steadily without increasing, in fact a small reduction, in my capital outlay.

Generally, i would be a buyer at the current price. In fact my buy order would have triggered in the high 260s.

I have had no orders in lately though, as the trading range seems to have broken on the downside, and it is a while since we saw the top pf the range.

Even in good times this never seems to sustain a rise over 300 for long, even though the dividend has risen steadily over the years. If we have further general market falls, it may fall a good bit more, and it will be interesting to see if a new range is established and at what price. If and when it does so, i expect to restart the out and back in cycle. In the meantime, roll on the dividend payment later this month.

[wllmherk] 01/11/2023 10:15

I topped up here yesterday and the spread was quite narrow, 253p v 254.54p or close to these figures. Could be my imagination but, the spread often narrows in the afternoon.

wllm :)

[cwa1] 01/11/2023 07:53

Morning Cassini

Purely for the record-SAN and INVR are NOT cumulative, in case anyone picks that up incorrectly. Not that THAT has stopped me owning both :-)

[cassini] 31/10/2023 23:40

JJ,

It is true that Chesnara has a bit of a spread compared to some larger insurers. I presume it is more thinly traded. I won't buy shares with a large spread either.

However, I found that if I bided my time the spread would eventually narrow and present an opportunity to buy. It might take a day or two or a week, but it always narrowed to something acceptable at last.

The other thing about spreads is that the spread reported on platforms like ADVFN is usually, but not always, what you get if you ping your trading platform for an actual quote, so if feeling lucky, try getting an actual quote.

The stock markets are concerning me at the moment. I'm trying hard to sit on my hands. A bear market may be upon us already, albeit only the early stages. In fact, I might even reduce my share holdings a bit if we get a 'Santa Rally' bounce in the markets here. I'm getting nearly 4% interest with my SIPP/ISA broker, II, which would take a bit of the sting out of being in cash. Or I could park my money in QUID, which is a very short duration securities (bonds, gilts etc) ETF which always hovers at about £1.00 but pays about 4.29% monthly 'distribution yield' at the moment. On the other hand there are some stonking dividend yields available right now.

It's a dilemma.

If you want more secure dividends, there are also always the (fixed dividend) prefs. If you buy cumulative ('cum') prefs they still owe you the divi even if they can't pay it this time around. Also, Pref holders are preferred (hence the name) to ordinary share holders if money for a full dividend payout is short in hard times. I hold GACA, AV.A, SAN, INVR. Prefs have their own quirks of course and trade more like bonds than shares, so are sensitive to the central bank base rates. Rising rates will depress their value and vice versa. Probably you know all this already but I mention it as you sound like you rely on dividends.

[jubberjim] 31/10/2023 06:34

Cassini

The most frustrating thing for me personally is that it does pay a stonking divided but every time I go online to get a quote I am quoted a ridiculous spread .

Good luck with it

I am extremely reticent to buy anything in the market as is reflected in the paucity of the share price movements.

Was looking at the main indicators on the FTSE 100 250 and the like and I see a real disconnect to how they are shown when looking at the reality of the actual share prices

As I have said elsewhere it is a moot point so will just have to sit it out until the shares I have invested in recover sufficiently

That will take some time given what i perceive as nervousness in the markets.

Got badly caught out way back in late 2019 by decisions taken then at the behest of the powers that be and can see a similar scenario occurring again

Will have to sell something before I can buy so sidelined at moment

I do like an arbitrage (my own terms/understanding) sometimes they come off

Anyway find your posts quite well thought out though I don t understand some of the more intricate commutations mentioned.

Last post on Phnx being a case in point.

But prefereed to the Tikk Tokkers (Added here,Bought a few) etcetera etcetera

Any way all the best and good luck.

[cassini] 29/10/2023 18:28

JJ,

It's not in the same line of business as Direct Line of course.

Direct Line made a stonking error by having poor risk management models. I'm not aware of how this relates to Chesnara, although one or two people have made concerned noises about some of the more 'ambitious' statements made by the new director here.

In fact I held Direct Line on a couple of occasions in 2022 and traded it with modest success but didn't like the way its chart was shaping up so wasn't caught in the downdraft.

Chesnara does have a remarkably good dividend record, you will no doubt be pleased to hear ;0)

Most things are getting clobbered at the moment by the interest rate storm and I expect to see further weakness in the markets (including the insurers) going forwards but I have kept some powder dry in case opportunities present.

[jubberjim] 29/10/2023 16:27

Cassini

I think you will be grateful you waited a while longer

I know from previous posts you set great store by this company but to my mind it is too reminiscent of direct line and it's behaviour over last couple of years albeit without the downward spiral

Will be watching to see if it still bucks the trend I envisage these next few weeks for most insurance related shares

Take care and good luck

I hope I m wrong

[boystown] 27/10/2023 18:01

More from Directors' Talk... "Chesnara: A much-improved operating performance" ...

hXXps://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/chesnara-a-much-improved-operating-performance-loncsn/4121131233

[my retirement fund] 23/10/2023 15:51

Good volume today

[cassini] 23/10/2023 09:23

One of the NEDs bought 10,000 on Friday at 262.99p.

Bet he wishes he'd waited another day...

Yield now 9.3% with the offer at 250p.

[my retirement fund] 23/10/2023 09:12

Added more

[dosser50] 23/10/2023 07:33

Couldn't resist 253p this morning. Doesn't go much lower. Usually.

[boystown] 19/10/2023 22:09

Chesnara Plc A Robust Approach to Cash Generation

hXXps://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/chesnara-plc-a-robust-approach-to-cash-generation-video/4121130050

[cassini] 13/10/2023 14:55

Soon as I mention it, it bounces from 263p of course ;0)

[cassini] 13/10/2023 12:33

The technical picture here is deteriorating a little (same is true for the market, so not CSN specific).

It has bounced off ~260p in the past 5 years several times, so it's a critical level to watch IMO.

[cwa1] 28/9/2023 09:57

XD for jusy over 8p this morning, pay day 10/11