Chesnara Share Discussion Threads

[wynterwilde] 15/5/2024 07:54

al101uk

Thanks for reminding us of your very useful posts....

As you asked in one of them..."What to replace CSN with..."?

Anyone know....?? ;-)

[pvb] 14/5/2024 14:52

...Thanks. I will have a look.

[al101uk] 14/5/2024 14:47

pvb,

Think I've said it all in previous posts, these in particular:

1945
2000
2138
2276
2320

Ignore the slight cognitive dissonance ;-)

[pvb] 14/5/2024 13:38

"I'm not trading now, mainly because the range that was in place for years has gone and also the new CEO's more "adventurous" reputation is off putting to me."

Any more to say on this, al101uk?

I have wondered about CSN myself. I remember the 'old days' with their very simple and sober, plain white paper R&As. Not like that now. ;-)

Um...

[boystown] 14/5/2024 13:33

Did any posters attend the AGM?

[pete160] 09/5/2024 21:06

Thanks for the ideas. I'm happy to hold, supported by the divi, but I also suspect csn will be taken out within 1-2 years

[igoe104] 09/5/2024 18:10

Anyone with any brain's looks at company fundamentals not trading ranges. And hold for the longterm, thats how you get big returns . Nearly all traders come unstuck in the end and lose money eventually..

[1knocker] 09/5/2024 17:57

pete, unless there is something very nasty in the works, that doubling up should serve you well, even if the share price stays at present levels.

If it goes over about 290 though, I would start thinking about selling your top up with a view to repurchase circca 265/270.

Trading a range has served me well with CSN, but the 265/295 range has broken down at present and it remains to be sen whether and at what figures it re-establishes. Happily, my last sale was at 307 and my subsequent repurchases at an average of about 255. Roll on the div this month.

[pete160] 09/5/2024 14:10

The spread here seems to be tighter these days and have taken the opportunity to almost double up at around 251p.
The AGM next week will hopefully see more positive noises bring made by those in the know.

[1knocker] 08/5/2024 12:42

I think the fall in the share price probably has 2 related causes, first that no one really knows yet what the impact of a sudden reversal of a decade of negative after inflation interest rates will be on its investments (the remarkable feature is how few casualties such a sea change has caused so far), and secondly the CEO has no real track record yet but looks as though he may be more 'adventurous' than his predecessor.

Any lurking anxiety that the wheels could fall off is particularly bad for the share price of any financial business, because disaster can strike suddenly and catastrophically.

I have nio reason to think that CSN is vulnerable, but nor have I any reason to fear for Legal and Gen, a much bigger outfit, with an apparently very strong balance sheet, highly profitable, and with an share price which has also languished for years as the dividend has steadily risen.

The share price weakness has been going on so long that I don't think it can be put down to a big seller in the background.

If CSN is sound, this a very extended buying opportunity. If not, its a sell at pretty much any price. I have a significant personal interest in it being the former!

[igoe104] 07/5/2024 17:38

More likely clearly a large seller in the background. Hopefully a big jump on the cards once cleared..

[warranty] 07/5/2024 16:15

CSN still stuck near the bottom whilst the other insurers have a good day. Clearly there’s something not liked about this one.

[jonnybig] 01/5/2024 07:13

Really don't like the over generous share options given to directors

spud

[cassini] 12/4/2024 23:16

These pension companies are a bit complicated to analyse, they seem to have their own, arcane performance metrics.

PHNX's chart over the last two+ years doesn't look good - perhaps bonds and interest rates have weighed on it here - but their recent set of results was well received and seemed to trigger the start of a rerating, but the divi (just increased this year) is still very large in terms of yield and large biannual divis seem to generate distorted price action around ex-divi days.

I'm looking to top up on PHNX but I think getting a good entry price is key - I will keep an eye on it next week, it could continue to fall for a week or two if it behaves like MNG did when it went ex-div recently, as punters lose interest...but who knows...

Added complications are that the US stock markets seem to me ready to roll over, there is clearly stress in the US debt market (US 10 Year Treasury has pinged up to 4.5+%), gold has gone parabolic plus it's nearly May then we're in the summer doldrums.

Tricky...

[lord gnome] 12/4/2024 21:57

Up like a rocket and down like its stick. Disappointing even allowing for the nice ex-div. This deserves a rerating but it looks to be back into its recent trading range. Bah! It’s the hope that kills.

[aleman] 12/4/2024 18:05

Or you could ask on the DIVI thread. It's a bit slow there but would be more active if more people took their "off-topic" chat about other dividend shares there instead. ;-)

[1knocker] 12/4/2024 15:36

I often find posts on boards for similar stocks more objective about a stock than the posts on the dedicated board. Fewer looking for confirmation, and less extreme mood swings!

[cwa1] 12/4/2024 14:55

Lots of folk on the Phoenix thread do. Might be worth doing bit of reading there

[1knocker] 12/4/2024 14:48

I am eying up Phoenoix Group. Anyone have an thoughts?

[makinbuks] 12/4/2024 07:35

I don't think IFRS EPS is particularly important but that's a huge reduction rather casually dismissed.

Perhaps it just shows how volatile this measure is which is not realy what you expect from "steady eddie" CSN

[speedsgh] 11/4/2024 09:56

From the Hardman note:

~ 2024 EPS downgraded from 38.6p to 33.8p.
"A couple of operating lines were worse than expected, which has led to a downgrade to our estimates. The adjustments to new business and operating experiences/assumptions have led to downgrades of our 2024E EPS, to 33.8p from 38.6p. We have introduced 2025E EPS of 34.6p."

~ 2024 DPS estimated at 24.69p, an increase of 3% (2023: 23.97p)

~ Valuation: "With a price at approximately 80% of its forecast Economic Value,
Chesnara seems undervalued. A prospective dividend yield of 8.8%, with good
prospects of continued growth, also suggests an undervalued stock."

[speedsgh] 11/4/2024 09:41

New Hardman research note (commissioned by CSN)...

Good 2023 results set platform for future progress -

[mister md] 11/4/2024 07:09

'The recommended final dividend of 15.61p per share is expected to be paid on 28 May 2024. The ordinary shares will be quoted ex-dividend on the London Stock Exchange as of 11 April 2024.'

[skinny] 09/4/2024 09:13

Also its had quite a run recently :-


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