Chesnara Share Discussion Threads

[lord gnome] 22/2/2024 11:15

lol. Buy, buy, buy!Right now, even £3.00 seems a long way off.

[cwa1] 22/2/2024 10:30

This should make all the difference...

RBC raises Chesnara price target to 335 (330) pence - 'outperform'

[igoe104] 12/2/2024 11:48

New CEO interview.

[mcunliffe1] 31/1/2024 15:49

Thanks CWA1 and 1knocker.

[1knocker] 31/1/2024 15:45

The range does seem to be lower over the last year. 281 used to be my buying price for limit orders to purchase, which I lowered to 261. The current top of the range is more difficult to gauge. As I said, only 5 months ago i sold at a tad over 306. Absent anything to frighten the horses, I would hope to get 300 on my next sale, but I may have to wait longer than usual. With the larger of the half yearly dividends (the split is roughly 2:1) coming up, I am more than content to be patient.

THe mystery of this stock is that regular dividend increases over many years have not been matched by the share price.

Another interesting income stock you may like to look into is Smiths News. A modernising, gung ho management all but sank it a few years ago, but a new team has reverted to the old business and (fingers crossed) seems content to stick to the knitting. It is at present ex the bigger of the two dividends it pays annually. A rare stock which has come back from the dead, and looks well set for the foreseeable future.

If you are feeling brave try a slice of DEC! Ideally buy in a SiPP to avoid withholding tax.The dividend is at present about 30% and the price flat on its back. Read the (pretty good) DEC BB for an insight to the business model and what is going on at present.

Best of luck.

[cwa1] 31/1/2024 15:29

I'd guess the XD date would either be 4/4/24 or 11/4/24, with my money being on the latter(all FWIW)

[mcunliffe1] 31/1/2024 14:38

Hello all.
I see a few handles on here that I recognise.

Was pointed here by a post from DBADVN on the general insurance and assurance thread (no EPIC title - but that's another story).

I hold LGEN and PHNX in a SIPP and ABDN in certificate form from floatation day.

I was hoping to pick up some vibes about this stock (never looked at it recently) and reading the last few posts on here I have jumped in with a £5k purchase. £2.6015 gor me 1910 shares.

Now, just recently I've bought and sold (twice) £5k of ABDN and made £250 then £240. Not a huge amount but enough to keep me happy. This over a month.

I'm guessing that the next ex-div is early April - payment in May. Please correct me if I'm wrong.


Strikes me that if the share price rises sufficiently before then I can sell at a profit and if not, add CSN to my divi payers long-term.

[essentialinvestor] 31/1/2024 13:59

knocker, interesting post and very well done, just one thought..could CSN now be in a new lower trading range?.

[1knocker] 31/1/2024 13:46

Financial stocks are always a bit of a worry, as one can never be sure what time bombs they may hold. That is especially so when interest rates have risen higher and faster than anyone thought was even on the cards 18 months ago. That will radically have changed quite a few financial equations.

That said, even if interest rates drop so far or so fast as many expect (i don't think they will), at present Chesnara is comfortably below te bottom of a trading range which has been remarkably steady for many years, the dividend has grown reliably and looks pretty safe, and the big payment is only about 3 months off.

I have had a limit order to buy in for some time. It triggered at 260.2 this morning.
That buys back 10% more shares than I sold 5 month ago at just over 306, with a respectable amount of cash skimmed off on the round trip. I have placed a limit order to sell at 300, though that looks optimistic at present, but I am by no means averse to picking up the next dividend!

I have been working the trick for many years now. The dividends and 'skimmed' trading profits have long since paid for the initial share purchase made donkey's years ago at 179, and that holding is now very much larger, for no additional capital outlay.

Why the share price has been so low for so long (not even reflecting the steady rise of the dividends paid) i have no idea. So long as my model continues to work, I do not much care!

GLA

[makinbuks] 02/1/2024 10:25

Forced selling for redemptions by UK equity income OEIC's must be a drag on the price of CSN, which could all change from about now

[mirandaj] 02/1/2024 10:08

Above shows major shareholders with total 31.71%

[igoe104] 27/12/2023 11:13

Bloody CSN is up today. 🙄

[cassini] 22/12/2023 03:30

It's not the full link, it's the domain name that ADVFN doesn't like.

'Stout.com' must be blacklisted by ADVFN for some reason.

[wassapper] 21/12/2023 10:00

Yes. Weird link issue. I can't make it work either

[septimus quaid] 21/12/2023 08:11

For some reason, ADVFN really doesn't like that link (usual workarounds failed)

[riverman77] 21/12/2023 07:57

Yes the Economic Value as provided by the company is probably the best way of valuing these and on that measure they trade at a big discount. Considering selling PHNX after rally to buy some CSN which hasn't moved.

[al101uk] 20/12/2023 20:01

"Plus Chesnara doesn't actually look to be valued particularly cheaply anyway."

But you're using the companies NAV to value the company which is not a good metric.

www.stout.com/en/insights/article/unique-aspects-of-valuing-life-insurance-companies

(sorry, won't post as a link)

As I said previously valuation metrics have been provided by the company in previous years, based on DNI I believe.

The companies economic value as calculated at last results was over £523 million vs a current market cap of £391 million. Chesnara have traded at a premium to their economic value in the past, albeit they used a different measure back then.

[speedsgh] 20/12/2023 16:09

Both PHNX & CSN have been valued far higher previously so I see no reason why the market might not do so at some point in the future. Lord knows when but would seem unreasonable to discount the prospect completely. Not overly fussed anyway so long as they keep churning out the dividend distributions.

[wmb194] 20/12/2023 15:06

Yes, I realise, and Phoenix is trying to do similar but those businesses* are small and lower margin than the closed business. I'm not saying that they cannot reinvent themselves in some way or another, I'm just trying to explain why the market is sceptical and why their share prices don't race ahead. Plus Chesnara doesn't actually look to be valued particularly cheaply anyway.

*Waard Verzekeringen and Schildon only have £0.9bn and £1.9bn under management respectively.

[cfro] 20/12/2023 14:22

CSN isn't all about running down closed books they also have a Dutch new business and a Swedish open business. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see future deals more along these lines as well as further closed book deals too..

[wmb194] 20/12/2023 13:50

You're not understanding what they do these days, largely running down closed books of business that's never to be repeated e.g., expensive endowment policies. This is why they're desperate for deals and ways to find new business. The market is sceptical that any new business will be high enough margin to sustain a 9% yield and a full valuation.

Edit: Phoenix definitely isn't 240 years old, that'll be when one of the businesses it acquired was founded, probably Pearl Assurance. Phoenix started life as Clive Cowdrey's original Resolution plc. (His second Resolution plc was acquired by Aviva.)

[ammons] 20/12/2023 13:29

Not sustainable in the long run wmb194? Chesnara was formed in 2004. Phoenix Group, a similar business, claims to have been in existence for 240 years. Acquisitions and expansion? What companies dont talk of this? Is pension provision is not a long term business in your view?

[al101uk] 20/12/2023 13:19

Old management looked at valuation metrics and published them in results over the years, worth a read if you can dig them up.