Chesnara Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 31/3/2010 13:55

Chairman - read the comments re working capital requirements for Moderna.

[ted32] 31/3/2010 11:41

Chairman2...If CSN can increase the div in line with inflation and make sound aquisitions that in turn will lead to a higher share price.

[chairman2] 31/3/2010 11:31

and you would prefer that to divis?

[ted32] 31/3/2010 11:17

Chair..Perhaps they have an aquisition in mind

[chairman2] 31/3/2010 11:10

Why has the company not increased the dividend more?

retained profits (£11.5 m) now almost equal the size of the payout
(£14 m) and total £25m over last 3 years.

What is this for? The company could pay a special divi and
still have increase EV.

[hieronymous1] 31/3/2010 10:36

Thanks for that Dave. When something is always there you stop noticing it. At least I do and am consequently covered in confusion!

[jonwig] 31/3/2010 09:14

Haven't done more that scan quickly through, but everything looks to be in-line with expectations.

If it's been missed, xd is 14/04 and pay is 20/05.

[daveofdevon] 31/3/2010 08:12

And at the top of this page !

[hieronymous1] 31/3/2010 08:11

Final results available at:

[chairman2] 30/3/2010 22:51

thanks jonwig

just stirring the pot

[markie7] 30/3/2010 18:48

big day tomorrow

[jonwig] 30/3/2010 14:29

Chairman - well, the Pru is proposing 1.7 times EV to buy AIA! Mind, it's expecting strong growth over East, hardly the scenario for poor old closed funds.

Current holdings can be found from the last AR on the website plus RNS changes since ... not something I've particularly checked.

I'm tempted to think current strength is affected by some leakage in tomorrow's numbers. A change in EEV caused by a higher DCF rate is not important, but any suggestion that integration of Moderna is proving costly or something like that would be a strong negative.

Barring upside surprises, I'd expect the share price to fall tomorrow.

[luderitz] 30/3/2010 12:36

Many thank's al101uk, I vaguely remember that being the case.

[chairman2] 30/3/2010 11:18

ANyone got any upto date info on who the major shareholders are?

ANyone speculating on Resolution making an offer for this at EV?

[al101uk] 30/3/2010 11:13

Always done well on results as far as I can remember. Been a holder since £1.58

[luderitz] 30/3/2010 09:58

Has it been a case of sell on the news in the past with this one please?

Not a holder at the moment and can't remember what has happened before.

[markie7] 30/3/2010 08:26

results tmrw, will be fascinating. what a share this is.

[banj] 29/3/2010 16:46

Blimey, stella stock. Still holding :-) Special dividend coming?

[chairman2] 11/3/2010 23:44

yield curve may be steeping
but discount rates more likely to fall rather than rise

any such move would be signalled in advance inmho

[wilmdav] 11/3/2010 15:30

Thanks Jonwig.

As you say discount rate looks likely to be steady. I've just checked a couple of other companies reporting to 31/12/09. They used discount rates of 5.6% and 5.7% for their IAS19 pension calcs respectively.

[jonwig] 11/3/2010 09:36

The EEV is principally moved by the discount rate used in its calculation. I suspect that won't have changed much from the 5.8% used at H1, but a rise by one percentage point would knock something like 15% off the EEV.

Other things worth looking out for:

(1) A reduction in actual earnings at the IFRS level. They are integrating Moderna, and this will be something of a brake.

(2) An increase in mortality or misselling claims. These have been within budget for as long as I've been a holder. Again Moderna might be the place to look.

(3) Noises about tighter regulation under Solvency II. Life companies aren't expected to be much impacted but the perception of that might change.

[banj] 11/3/2010 09:11

Thank you Gents.

[wilmdav] 11/3/2010 08:19

Tempting to top slice at this level but I see we have prelims due on 31st March. That will provide an update on EEV.

[jonwig] 11/3/2010 07:11

Banj - quite a bit of discussion about that through this thread - see post #265 for example.
EEV is the key.

[janes bond] 11/3/2010 02:02

Whatever you do has to be your call Banj.
At this time, the shares are worth holding, in my opinion. However, none of us have a crystal ball, so we cannot foresee how the situation will be in the future. Therefore, no advice can be given or had.
Since the management have showed that they have an eye for acquisitions, the outlook has changed. Things might even get interesting.
The dividends have been heaven sent for long term holders.
The yield from my portfolio would be significantly less if it weren't for holdings like this.