Chesnara Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 17/2/2010 11:04

FY results on 31 March according to website.

Another Swedish RNS from Moderna this morning. The on-line translation is pretty feeble; I've asked CSN if they can provide a version in English.

[investinggarden] 09/2/2010 12:03

Brokers Views: Panmure reaffirms its faith in the well-managed Chesnara

[jonwig] 20/1/2010 11:50

Some recent broker estimates. Look at the discrepancy!

2009 2010
PBT(£m) eps(p) dps(p) PBT(£m) eps(p) dps(p)
Panmure Gordon
19-01-10 BUY 44.93 40.26 16.02 13.90 10.36 16.66
Shore Capital
15-01-10 HOLD 22.30 17.10 16.00 20.90 16.60 16.40
Collins Stewart [D]
14-12-09 BUY 42.00 16.20 9.00 16.70

[jonwig] 18/1/2010 18:42

No probs - and I was inviting dissent!

[chairman2] 18/1/2010 18:37

jonwig

tanks it was kina rhetorical anyway

[jonwig] 18/1/2010 18:29

Ch2 - you need to look at the EEV, say 250p at present. A 30% discount to EEV is typical of open life cos, rather less would be warranted for close cos.

The trouble is, you sell at - say - 220p and find that the EEV has been revalued upwards because of a fall in the discounting rate used.

On the positive side, the new business from Modena will bolster real earnings in a couple of years' time (as opposed to return of capital) and further closed-life acquisitions are possible. And, of course, the biter might be bit.

On the negative side, I'm unclear what would be the effect of a surge in inflation but I tend towards that being negative. (Most closed funds have a higher weighting in fixed-rate bonds.)

[chairman2] 18/1/2010 17:26

Looks like it aint gonner pop

inexorable. Bought this for the divi
so the price rise is a two edged sword.

At what price would it be a sell???

[milton rooms] 11/1/2010 16:27

When will this pop

[barrygibb] 10/1/2010 18:57

IC tip for 2010 at 202p
BG

[barrygibb] 10/1/2010 18:57

IC tip for 2010 at 202p
BG

[chairman2] 08/1/2010 09:10

Lets hope that the IC tip is not the kiss of death
these journalist selections usually are

[jonwig] 08/1/2010 08:51

It's the IC 'Tip of the Year 2010' but I can't access the detail.

[banj] 08/1/2010 08:45

Fabulous :-))

[daveofdevon] 17/12/2009 13:52

Dec 17th Panmure reiterates BUY recommendation and ups target price from 220p to 238p (Source Digital Look)

[zangdook] 11/12/2009 10:34

Market seems to like the news.

[markie7] 25/11/2009 14:09

£2! what a share this is.

[topvest] 19/11/2009 08:52

Looks good.

[jonwig] 19/11/2009 08:21

An EEV of £280m as stated today is 275p per share. Given that life companies typically trade at a 30% discount to that, the share price ought to be around 193p. On the other hand, the rating should be higher given that most of the business is in run-off. Maybe 210p?

[banj] 28/10/2009 13:59

csn: crackin stock :-))

[topvest] 27/10/2009 21:39

Yes, good news. Strange reaction. Could have managed the newsflow better I suppose.

[jonwig] 27/10/2009 15:47

Since there are 8 market makers, the initial reaction was pretty bizarre.

They talk of an exceptional profit arising from the revaluation, but it seems it may not be distributable for some years. There are, of course, ways round that.

Notice that the upward valuation (EEV) of Moderna was accompanied by an increase in the risk discount rate used in reaching it (5.2% to 6.04%). On its own, such an increase would lower the EEV, not raise it.

I bought some more, but after 3 o'clock unfortunately.

[zangdook] 27/10/2009 15:28

What a strange reaction - looks like someone read the first few lines and assumed it was negative. Wish I'd been paying attention when it came out.

[markie7] 27/10/2009 15:03

well, thats what I thought. great buying opportunity as it went out, less so now.

[oniabsta] 27/10/2009 14:46

Talked to Graham Kettleborough for clarification on the RNS. His words "definately positive (for csn) to the tune of £20m!