Chemring Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 07/9/2023 18:17

Nicely done, again, that's a strong later day move.

[rimau1] 07/9/2023 16:18

Just sold the trading pot El at a smidge under £3.

[essentialinvestor] 26/8/2023 10:47

rim, agree with your view. I closed my latest small trade yesterday above 2.90,
the pattern continues to repeat for now, but had hoped the last statement would
move CHG into a higher trading range. Unfortunately that RNS coincided with weakening
wider equity markets.

[rimau1] 21/8/2023 14:40

Well i didn’t expect it but my £2.76 buy has been triggered, the trading pot is back. Same pattern as Q1 & Q2, £2.76 will be my high, 3 more tranche’s at £2.67, £2.57 and £2.52. Isn’t it mildly depressing that for quality companies buy and hold is less lucrative than dipping in and out. Even the buyback is not supportive.

[nibble] 17/8/2023 16:49

Bit of a drop for a 2.3p div Boozey !

[boozey] 17/8/2023 10:57

Ex-dividend today hence the fall

[rimau1] 17/8/2023 09:32

Coming into range El! Limit buy set for the first short term tranche at £2.76 and I took a maiden position in QQ today. Market jitters hopefully presenting opportunities.

[essentialinvestor] 08/8/2023 15:43

Much appreciated.

[rimau1] 08/8/2023 15:42

Hi El. No i have not altered my trading range as i am quite nervous about wider markets especially in August with typically lower volume/higher volatility. Saying that, I am hoping £3 forms the base now with the supportive buyback and see fair value here at £3.50 or c.16x forward earnings. I would only top slice my long term holding because ultimately i am looking for a sale here so will continue to hold a stake and just take profits along the way (dynamic buy and hold!!!). If we have another mini-market demise (or hopefully a Ukraine cease fire) and shoot back into the £2.70’s i will certainly start buying the trading pot again. I was very impressed with management launching a buyback, its been demanded by institutional holders for the past 2 years as an accretive response to a low rating. No other UK listed peer has a similar risk reward, Cohort did but has rerated and still has problems with Portugal, QQ is too dependent on the MOD and BAE has rerated. For whatever reason we still offer compelling value. Or maybe i am just wrong! All my own views of course.

[essentialinvestor] 08/8/2023 13:08

rim, do you have a view on the current share price in light of the buy back.

I know you have a longer term holding and also often trade between 2.70's-2.90's range.

B may haveuy back altered this trading range?.

[philanderer] 02/8/2023 13:40

Analysts at Berenberg bumped up their target price for shares of Chemring from 360.0p to 370.0p, pointing out the strength of its fundamentals and labelling the shares as their 'top pick' in the UK defence space.

Sharecast.com

[rimau1] 01/8/2023 13:26

Excellent rns and a smart move by management. The not insubstantial buyback in my view will be materially EPS accretive and should lead to a rerate. Proactive board.

[rimau1] 19/7/2023 08:07

Worth reading the Cohort Chairmans statement this morning.

[rimau1] 08/6/2023 16:33

Can we hold £3, or are we staying in the trading range in which case i will be doubling my holding again on the way back down and boring you all, yawn!

[rimau1] 07/6/2023 08:26

Yep, sold the last of my trading pot this morning, very pleased as i was too overweight here. Lets hope we see a proper rerate because the potential for Roke especially in non defence areas is still not fully understood by Mr Market. Order book growth and revised medium term targets make 15x earnings and zero debt good value as the rating becomes 12-13x for 2 years out. My base case is still a Private equity take-out here. Load it up with debt and sell Roke off.

[essentialinvestor] 06/6/2023 15:24

The share price bounce is as regular as clockwork, forward order book looks very positive.

[rimau1] 06/6/2023 08:06

Roke firing on all cylinders, as explained earlier need to have a 2 year view here to see the value, hope the market gets it. Limit sell on my short term trade shares set at £2.79 just incase we have an efficient market!

[p1nkfish] 26/5/2023 17:21

Not so sure. Starmers slow hand clap at the Zelensky speech was telling. He's a closet Corbynite.

UK defence co's might be ok off-shore but won't have friends here.

Market gets it.

[essentialinvestor] 26/5/2023 16:32

The next LAB government, if elected, will be far closer to one nation Tories, Starmer arguably to the right of Ted Heath in some areas.

[rimau1] 26/5/2023 16:21

Correct. QQ are something like 70-75% UK defence dependent albeit dropping by 2027 as they focus more on Australia. Chemring is majority US. Chemring and QQ are now both on 13.5x fwd earnings but Chemring has no debt and higher margin work. QQ could never been acquired either given it is ingrained in the UK defence sector, Chemring and Cohort are the plays for me and i expect both to be acquired one day. A labour government would have zero specific impact here, Russia and China have seen to that, no western government can be seen to be reducing defence spending over the medium term.

[essentialinvestor] 26/5/2023 16:07

Not sure on that, from memory QQ has larger exposure to the UK than CHG -
would need to check though.

And on a LAB government, potential has arguably increased this week
with UK interest rates now looking to stay higher for longer.

[p1nkfish] 26/5/2023 16:00

Perhaps expecting a Labour Gov cutting defence spending so discounting that?

[essentialinvestor] 26/5/2023 13:23

CHG has now retraced very nearly 100% of the Russian invasion re-rating.

QQ results excellent, but on a forward multiple of not much over 13 X.

[rimau1] 25/5/2023 07:15

Strong results from Cohort (ex Portugal which continues to be a problem) and QQ (upgraded long term guidance) should provide a nice read across and rise here.