Chaarat Gold Share Discussion Threads

[2pablo] 14/4/2020 21:23

Otherwise he's going to rush into some rash M & A transaction.

Still waiting on Chris Egers - not as user friendly as Artem

[casual47] 14/4/2020 19:42

A niche nerdy interest (am I the only one?): the annual report may reveal if they have extended the deadline on Artem's bonus shares upon successful completion of that mysterious M&A opportunity, or whether it has been dropped altogether....


From last year's:

"Artem Volynets benefits from a contingent incentive fee in relation to one potential and future M&A transaction, subject to such closing prior to 30 July 2020, after which this contingent incentive fee will expire for nil consideration. Should such transaction close by 30 July 2020, Artem Volynets
will be awarded 12,564,874 ordinary shares, subject to a clawback for 12 months following completion, in case he ceases to be employed by the Group within this period. Artem Volynets would not be a participating board member, or carry a vote, on this future and potential M&A transaction."

[casual47] 14/4/2020 17:01

Closing UT of 29p.

Lots of 'O' action today, presumably PIs selling into the rise but some of the big ones seem to have been buys also.

A director buy or two from e.g. Artem would be quite nice...

[casual47] 14/4/2020 13:02

SP Angel update following the annual results. Key bit:

"We see Kapan generating $23m in mine level EBITDA in FY20 ($1,626/oz Au, $5,385/t Cu and $2,018/t Zn assumed prices) and $17m in mine level FCF after subtracting $4m in capex and ~$1m in tax payment"

They maintain their "buy" recommendation (obvs as they are house brokers) and will issue new TP shortly (presumably after Q1 operating results?).

We should be getting Finncap's initiation note soon also, I presume also following the q1 update?

[casual47] 14/4/2020 10:56

Start of the AT-attack?

[casual47] 14/4/2020 10:43

Chaarat Kapan distributes covid antibody tests to two local health centres

[casual47] 14/4/2020 09:53

Volume about 2:1 driven by 'o' trades at the moment

[juju44] 14/4/2020 09:07

Not many here . Only red in a sea of blue

[casual47] 13/4/2020 17:56

Nowadays we have to take our wins where we can get them, JC ;)

[jc2706] 13/4/2020 17:53

I had a break looking at things for Easter so have only just noticed the most significant event for a while:

WOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

10000th post!

Get in there!

[casual47] 13/4/2020 17:36

Gold at its highest for 8 years....

....Mr A now allowed to buy under the 3m waiver....

....a stock that is usually rather illiquid.

Fireworks tomorrow?

[casual47] 13/4/2020 10:56

Spain are also beginning to relax some lockdown restrictions, from BBC:

"In Spain, people in construction and manufacturing can now finally return to work – albeit under strict safety rules. All other workers must continue to stay at home."

[casual47] 13/4/2020 10:45

They paid about $8-$10m for the repayment and interest of the Kapan loan. If that loan didn't exist that $8-$10m would have been pure net pre-tax profit.

[casual47] 13/4/2020 10:21

Pabs, I'm no accountant nor versed in Armenian tax law but there may be an advantage in the way they have decided to allocate intra-company expenses and cross-company charges etc if done e.g. so that the pre-tax profit figure goes negative? (Especially as it only went negative by a small amount)

There could be some discretion in how they decide to allocate these things and if there is a way to do it so that it gives tax benefits then why not?

It's why I think that for a company like Chaarat, which is at the start of its growth, the net cash flow figure is the more relevant one. What's important is to know that they can service debt and have the cash flow to juggle the inflows and outflows without getting strapped for cash.

(The $15m Labro loan facility was designed to be a backup to ensure continuous cashflow)

[2pablo] 13/4/2020 10:09

I asked Artem about that query I had on the accounts at Kapan. He came back cheerily and promptly and has passed my query on to Chris Egers.

Will be very interesting also to see if Mr A starts this week - looks like PoG could push through $1700 an oz soon. Our Q1 results from Kapan should have an excellent avg price for the Q as well, much greater than our 2019 sales figure achieved of $1413 an oz

[casual47] 13/4/2020 08:59

Chaarat's covid approach continues to impress people - linkedin post by MD of SRK consulting:

[casual47] 13/4/2020 07:27

Kyrgyzstan started their lockdown early also and have 5 confirmed deaths of covid as of today

[casual47] 12/4/2020 11:20

If Mr. A were to fill his boots under the 3m shares waiver it would cost him less than £1,000,000

But, on paper at least, it could increase the value of his holding by more than £16,000,000

For every penny the shareprice goes up his holding goes up by more than £1.6m

No-brainer?

[casual47] 12/4/2020 10:24

Just noticed you nabbed the 10,000th post, JC.

JC270611 Apr '20 - 20:54 - 10000 of 10000

No prizes but somewhat pleasing for a numbers man?

[jc2706] 11/4/2020 20:54

Agreed. It is a balancing act. Whilst they need to get on top of things at the moment, you need to get to herd immunity, whether naturally or through vaccination. Vaccination could be some time away and lockdown for that period would destroy the economy. As such, they need to keep loosening and tightening the lockdown to manage the number of cases to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed, probably associating this with tight controls on at risk people.

A very delicate balancing act indeed.

[casual47] 11/4/2020 16:40

I would argue for not only opening school but having it continue through the summer months and also extended hours during the day.

It's a tricky decision to make seeing as e.g. a 13 year old died. But the FT had a leaked gov document which suggested there would be 150k avoidable deaths (non-covid related) if a full lockdown remains in place unmitigated.

There is no such thing as a zero risk solution.

[jc2706] 11/4/2020 16:13

I have thought for some time that schools would go back after half term. But I have just seen that New York are cancelling the rest of the school year so maybe not!

[jc2706] 11/4/2020 16:11

I think that the oil price is very likely to go down although guessing short term market moves is difficult at the best of times. The new deal is trumpeted as being historic. This may well be the case but it is probably only half the level of demand destruction currently ongoing and historic reductions are less likely to be achieved.

If you look on social media, a lot of people are predicting a rise off of the back of this deal on the basis that the demand will quickly recover. I think that they are underestimating the extent of the damage brought about by the lockdowns, how long they will last, the sluggishness of any recovery, the likelihood of lockdowns being put in place again and whether the participants stick to the deal.