Chaarat Gold Share Discussion Threads

[casual47] 17/3/2020 10:30

As I understand it:

In Kyrgyzstan Chaarat have practically no significant costs. All the work which has been done so far was done by Ciftay under the JV agreement. All the major expenditures are, I believe, optional: drilling, advancing the Tulku project beyond Ciftay's work etc.

In Armenia they have hedged on the downside and mgt has delivered guidance for EBITDA of $20m at a gold price of $1400/oz.

The only real issue is the $17m loan. The lender has extended the maturity of the loan before and has even increased it from $10m to $17m so we can assume they are supportive. Realistically it would make sense for this loan to be extended again even if alternative finance to replace it falls through.

So worst case, it seems to me that Chaarat can sit this one out until Q2 2021.

If e.g. the EBRD were to provide funding for Tulku then as they have an all-year 300-360 person camp on site now they might be able to continue as normal.

[casual47] 17/3/2020 09:14

Ameriabank, the principal lender for Kapan, is giving its clients a credit holiday - all repayments, interest etc has been suspended until May.

[casual47] 16/3/2020 09:39

Not many shares are resisting the turmoil, Sparks.

If gold holds, and even after the drop the gold price is still great for miners, then we could see some uplift once the miners start to publish their next set of results, which should be pretty stellar. So stand by for mid-April onwards.

I see Juju still behaving to his nature.

[sparkyboy1] 16/3/2020 09:22

Down to 26p from 39p this time last week why so much considering gold is doing OK compared to the stock markets

[juju44] 16/3/2020 09:21

TIMBERRRRRRR

[casual47] 16/3/2020 08:59

If Chaarat can sort the $17m then they should easily be able to sit out all of 2020 if needs be. The EBITDA of $20m was projected at $1400/oz. This should be enough to cover the debt interest and repayments and a minimal G&A (drilling etc are all discretionary costs).

This is the key bit of news I am waiting for. Everything else is gravy.

Though if they can negotiate with Ameriabank to suspend the repayments on principal for a year, so just make it interest, then that would instantly liberate $8m

[casual47] 15/3/2020 09:28

If the EBRD is behind Tulku finance then the case for funding it has become even more compelling as one of the EBRD's prime motivations are development (the D in EBRD) and Kyrgyzstan needed already a lot of it before Corona.

If EBRD is sorted then with Ciftay's $31.5m already committed I think they'd need to find about $40m from different lenders.

[casual47] 15/3/2020 09:22

EBRD are ramping up their lending

[richgit] 15/3/2020 09:21

What an incredible irony that The Coronavirus panic,coinciding with an oil price war has saved the Bullion Banks from potentially $Billions in losses from their Comex paper Gold shorts, as the World`s overmargined investors sell everything (uncluding their useless paper Gold)to meet Margin calls

My timing is rarely perfect,though with no margin on anything,I buy and sit.

Bought a pile more of vaulted Silver on Friday and more shares in POG.


BullionStar.confirms a huge shortage of Physical Gold and Silver,so the Bullion Bank
Gangsters will be hoping to smash Paper Gold some more so they can clear out all their Final Paper Gold shorts.

This is a huge lesson for those that piled into fake Gold ETFs and all else on Margin

They never learn.

Still looking forward to the days of buying more CGH at beyond 50p= which may
be later this Year when the Cartel can no longer price Physical Gold with worthless paper.

[chilly0] 14/3/2020 14:39

S&p may spike to 3 k as short covering kicks in. it will reverse go lower as too much uncertainty. We only had 28% drop. Don't be surprised for 40% +

[casual47] 14/3/2020 12:03

Not to want to veer too much into stalker territory, but as part of my research into Chaarat I regularly check Linkedin and I spotted that our new VP of Corporate Development & IR liked a linkedin post two weeks ago about the creation of a new royalty & streaming company: Nomad Royalty Company



It could make sense for Chaarat to get some of its Tulku project finance from such a company. And it could make sense for such a company to want to be part of an EBRD-led consortium, given the protections that affords them as creditors.

While things are clearly choppy now I don't see that affect the EBRD's lending power and in many ways it makes their reason and remit for wanting to get involved in Kyrgyzstan even more compelling - the teetering Kyrgyz economy will clearly benefit from Tulkubash.

[casual47] 14/3/2020 11:32

Hopefully Trump's order to buy oil until the US national reserves are filled to the brim will help anchor the market. The US indexes soared nearly 10% while he was making his speech (S&P gained 2,711.02, the largest closing points in its history).

With China, for now, seeming to be out of the woods and lifting all their quarantines we may see some action from them.

Looks like it will remain choppy for a while but I expect there to be also some greed inbetwixt the fear.

[2pablo] 14/3/2020 07:44

“When we see terrible days in equities like we saw on Monday and Thursday, we tend to see gold trade weaker along with equities because funds are selling their gold to cover margins and offset losses,” McKay noted.

Gold is down more than 9% on a weekly basis, which could lead to the most significant weekly loss since 2011. At the time of writing, April Comex gold futures were last at $1,520.80, down 4.37% on the day.

But the market sell-off could be far from over, said Capital Economics chief commodities economist Caroline Bain.

“Our markets team expects equity markets to continue to fall until it becomes clear that maybe the worst of the virus has passed. We could see a further drop in the price of gold over the next couple of weeks just because it is so liquid and people need cash,” Bain said Friday.
-------------------------------
Makes sense, was wondering why the 'safe haven' was being sold

[casual47] 13/3/2020 13:49

Go AT, go! You can do it!

37p before close please.

[jc2706] 13/3/2020 12:03

Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition.....

[2pablo] 13/3/2020 11:08

Bit of a shock today though, thought we were immune to the virus. Is nothing sacred ?

[jc2706] 13/3/2020 11:01

I think that he would be on dodgy ground if he tried to argue it was OK to buy in the run up to full year accounts. That said, I am not expecting anything that we don't already know and there is often far more price sensitive news that could be released (Tulkubash financing for example).

[2pablo] 13/3/2020 10:50

Makes sense about possible 'closed period' but not sure this has ever stopped Mr A in the past. I once ran this idea past an Aim CEO and he said dealings had to be authorised by the Chairman(!) as to whether they were in a closed period or not.

Saying that, however, the rules are pretty clear that the 30 days prior to publishing results are 'Closed periods'.

[casual47] 13/3/2020 10:40

Has the AT-defense started?

[casual47] 13/3/2020 10:39

I think it's also interesting that for the first time they added the cash position to the investor briefing ($5m as of 4/3/2020).

They clearly want to hammer home that they are generating good amounts of cash.

[casual47] 13/3/2020 10:33

It seems to me that bringing the FY19 forward from end of June, when the annual results have been nearly always released previously, to April was done for a reason and the most obvious reason seems to me that it is needed as part of the due diligence process of the project finance for Tulkubash.

If so then it would make sense to me that the FY results will be released in the first week of April.

[jc2706] 13/3/2020 10:25

Recent history has suggested that he is willing to support the price up to around 38p so I don't see why he wouldn't this time around given that he has the waiver available, closed period aside.

[casual47] 13/3/2020 09:41

Considering his holding the 3m shares is nothing - if he can increase the share price from 30p to 37p then it will cost him up to £1.1m but the total value of his holding will go up about £12millon....

[casual47] 13/3/2020 09:38

CGH are one of the only gold miners which have a guaranteed buyback pencilled in to start any time between now and May 31st: Mr. A has up to 3 million shares left to buy.

There will be a closed period of 1 calendar month in order to release the FY this April so depending on when that is due the buying is likely to start before or after.

[2pablo] 13/3/2020 09:36

Hoping Mr A hasn't found a big hole in his pocket and does still have plenty of cash, round about now might be a good time to spend some