Chaarat Gold Share Discussion Threads

[casual47] 26/3/2020 16:59

I'm feeling more optimistic. Prof. Ferguson, who's one of the people behind the Imperial College report, has adjusted his outlook from 250,000 deaths (if nothing was done) to "substantially less than 20k and 2/3 of those would have died of natural causes within six months".

That's not to take away from the gravity of the situation happening in Italy or Spain.

I'm hopeful we won't see that here in UK.

[jc2706] 26/3/2020 16:35

The US will be back to normal soon. Uncle Donald told me so (although he will be denying it in a couple of days).

[casual47] 26/3/2020 12:42

It's bad but if lockdown was released then most of those would be back in a job. So they are not "real" unemployment....for now.

[oli12] 26/3/2020 12:37

US weekly jobless claims soar to a record-breaking 3.28 million, vs 1.5 million expected - that’s pretty bad.

[casual47] 26/3/2020 12:11

Baker Steel once upon a time had a shareholding in Chaarat.

From 2013 annual report:

Baker Steel Capital Managers 9,091,950

[casual47] 26/3/2020 12:01

These guys might be worth keeping an eye on:



Might make sense for them to take a position in Chaarat.

[casual47] 26/3/2020 12:00

How are nominee shares held by a broker less confetti than paper gold?

At least be consistent...

[casual47] 26/3/2020 10:02

Some pictures of the lockdown in Armenia's capital



The lockdown appears to be very strict. People need to show ID and documents to explain why they are out and about. Throughout the lockdown the mining sector is exempted.

[casual47] 25/3/2020 18:57

"Stay at home" the Kyrgyz way

[casual47] 25/3/2020 16:13

Corona stats last 24hrs:

Armenia increased 17 to 266 (6.8%)
Kyrgyzstan increased 2 to 44 (4.7%)

Zero deaths in either (which is a more reliable indicator of spread). There's 6 critical in Armenia so that may change soon.

[casual47] 25/3/2020 15:18

Antibody test for Corona available at Boots or Amazon "within days"

Could transform this whole thing.

Update at 17:28 - this was briefed by Public Health England chief but is now contradicted by Professor Whitty. Says it won't be next week or anything like that.

[casual47] 25/3/2020 15:01

GV Gold, a peer to HGM, lost its second interested buyer recently. After Fosun decided not to continue with their (rumoured) $1 billion bid there were two contenders according to analysts: Russian Oligarch Trotsenko and Kazakh Oligarch Kenes Rakishev.

Trotsenko has now also thrown in the towel.



Looks like M&A and consolidation in the Russian gold miner space is still pretty lacklustre....

A buyer's market means an opportunity for Chaarat to pick up a Russian asset?

[casual47] 25/3/2020 09:58

Possible outcomes, imo dyor etc:

1. Project finance goes ahead - RERATE!
2. Temporary delay because of Corona (e.g. everything gets pushed back a quarter) - Mr A could continue to support the shareprice through waivers until the time is right to do the project finance
3. All goes t1ts up

Cash flow and cash on hand should be sufficient to ride out at least a quarter of difficulties, even a temporary shutdown at Kapan, imo.

The $34m remaining Kapan loan: repayments are quarterly and are based on a cash sweep model - they only have to repay up to 60% of cash flow in the quarter (after interest payments). If the cash flow reduces so do the cash sweep quarterly payments. So far they have always paid $2m each quarter. That said Ameriabank is offering a repayment and interest holiday to its clients so Chaarat might be availing itself of that also. Maturity is January 2023.

The $17m is fully guaranteed by Mr A's personal wealth.

The $3.5m Labro loan is of course Mr. A and there should be $9m or so still available to be drawn from the Labro facility.

That leaves the $20m loan notes which don't have to be paid until late 2021.

All the work going on at Tulkubash is AFAIK on Ciftay's account as part of the 12.5% JV agreement. Most of the 300 or so employees are Ciftay employees or their Kyrgyz contractors.

All this year's planned significant capex can be delayed as needed, only a minimal amount would be needed for e.g. care and maintenance.

[oli12] 25/3/2020 09:20

Won’t take much buying to push this back up.

[casual47] 25/3/2020 09:12

37p is still the magic number so fingers crossed.

[oli12] 25/3/2020 08:45

We should push back over the 30p soon again. Surely Mr A is keen to start buying.

[casual47] 25/3/2020 08:19

It might be better for Chaarat to push back the results to June, which is what they've always done. Would allow Mr. A to start his waiver share purchasing.

I assumed results were exceptionally brought forward to April as part of the project finance process but who knows.

[casual47] 25/3/2020 08:08

Cey is on FTSE

[oli12] 25/3/2020 08:04

CEY following the FCA guidance now in relation to FY results.

[casual47] 24/3/2020 14:57

The Armenian government today restricted certain businesses to help stop the spread of Corona but miners are explicitly exempted -- so business as usual for the Kapan mine.

[casual47] 24/3/2020 13:22

From the FCA website. I think the conclusion is, if Chaarat wanted an excuse to delay they could use this but there's nothing stopping them to release it as planned.

(1)
Does the announcement cover Alternative Investment Market (AIM) companies?
No. The announcement relates to officially listed companies. AIM companies should consult their Nominated Advisers (NOMAD). We understand AIM have written to NOMADs on this matter.

(2)
How does the announcement relate to the filing of final audited reports?
The announcement relates to preliminary annual accounts, not final audited reports. There is a principle underlying our request which could be applied to final reports: this is that, subject to MAR being observed, it should be acceptable for companies to use the full time available to them in the rules and regulation to publish their reports. However, if the work is complete on the final audited report, and appropriate consideration has been given to recent economic developments, it would make sense to finalise the report. This is a matter for the board to consider.

[casual47] 24/3/2020 13:05

Oli, quite. A lot of the countries where UK listed companies have their assets and offices are weeks behind/ahead of where the UK is in terms of Covid so, what difference does a two week delay make?