Chaarat Gold Share Discussion Threads

[casual47] 31/3/2020 16:38

Mr AT seems determined to sweep the 26p

[casual47] 31/3/2020 12:12

Main takeaways for me:

It's pretty brave to do an interview now and not hide behind RNS

On project finance: nobody has walked away and new sources have shown interest

On opportunities caused by crisis (presumably M&A): new opportunities are being presented to them

Very good, reassuring interview, I thought.

[casual47] 31/3/2020 12:04

New Artem interview

[casual47] 30/3/2020 15:00

NEX:

30/03/2020 12:43 55,158 27.195p

[casual47] 30/3/2020 13:14

From when this last traded at 36p to now about 3m volume has shifted. That includes a drop to 20p and hike back up to 25p. (A lot of this will have been the same shares going from A to B to C, e.g. from a PI's 'O' sale to his broker and then via AT sale-buy pair from broker to AT buyer, and vice versa)

Mr A has 3m in his waiver. Valid until end of May.

[casual47] 30/3/2020 13:02

The UT is a real trade, or rather a settlement of trades, a UT always defines the real price, at the time.

Why there is a UT of less than 200 quid and why the auction needed to be extended to 15 minutes to settle ("uncross") this I have no idea.

[2pablo] 30/3/2020 12:57

Hopefully after the 2 - 3 weeks to results, Chaarat, and maybe the world, will be a safer place

[juju44] 30/3/2020 12:56

Not up on my screen

[2pablo] 30/3/2020 12:55

Crazy. There have only really been two trades today and the 8,000 share Sell was mine. Bit spooked by the whole virus thing and feel I have to do something, right or wrong, so got a little cash out.

[sparkyboy1] 30/3/2020 12:43

and up 5% ?

[casual47] 30/3/2020 12:38

Two price monitoring extensions just for an UT of 692 shares.

No idea.....

[casual47] 29/3/2020 17:18

A rather startling paragraph which caught my eye:

"If Chile, for instance, imposes strict quarantines as neighboring Peru has done, then that would affect 40% of the world’s copper supply, Mr. Allsop said"

[jc2706] 29/3/2020 12:50

Credit ratings agencies are useless. These were the same people who were touting mortgage backed securities as AAA just before the financial crisis proved they were, in fact, junk. That said, I am not sure that any country could be considered AAA currently. Switzerland possibly the closest!

[richgit] 28/3/2020 14:03

Fitch Downgrades UK Credit Rating To AA-

Arguably no surprise - but what a bloody nerve !!

We shall wait and see if they carry out their threat to downgrade the $US Dollar
but then maybe their very existence will be threatened if they do that.


Of course in the race to Print assetless Confetti- downgrading the UK to AA-
would be balanced out in reality by downgrading Europe to Junk,and then the US
to Junk+,


Welcome to most currencies about to make Toilet Paper and real Confetti far more barterable currencies whilst Gold/Silver are amongst the few assets that will offer any return of our Money over the coming years.

[casual47] 28/3/2020 10:18

If I was Chaarat I would negotiate a "holiday" with the Kapan lenders for e.g. one quarter, something Ameriabank is already offering its clients, so extend the loan maturity from January 2023 to April 2023. This would instantly free up ~$2m repayment on principal plus interest due for this quarter and provide, I think, a buffer should Armenia request a shutdown of miners as well.

I think Armenia will try to keep the miners open for as long as they can as they are critical to GDP. But worst case I cannot see a shutdown last for more than one quarter. $2m (plus interest) should go a long way to maintain a care and maintenance operation for a quarter.

If it turns out the miners stay open throughout and they don't need the money they can e.g. just overpay next quarter.

Corona is bad 'mkay but I think we should keep some perspective. There is ample opportunity for Chaarat to get through this absolutely fine.

[casual47] 28/3/2020 09:04

The prize here is still the project finance for Tulku, which now has been pushed back from q2 to H2 this year.

It sounded like they were quite close to making the deal, e.g. during the February webcast the CFO said they would be announcing the names of constituents of the project finance syndicate "in the next month or so".

The "multi-lateral" bank (EBRD?) which gave the term sheet for this project finance I think will still be there for Chaarat once Corona subsides, provided that Chaarat as a business is still sound enough to take this on.

As ever Mr A will be key in this. He has 100% personally guaranteed the $17m loan and has multiples of this amount in the business via his shareholding.

Mr A will know exactly what the state of play is re. project finance and will have a good idea of the ongoing and future resilience of the business. The $17m will give us a first clue, I think. I would expect to get an update on that not necessarily by 31st of March but for sure before they release the annual results in mid-April, as it will be a key element of the auditor's report.

Longer term goldies are a good sector to be in, much more so than his investments in his real estate portfolio, I think.

[2pablo] 27/3/2020 21:22

Totally agree on the Covid-19 excuse is going to run rampant through all unsuccessful Aim businesses, hopefully not ours.

Stretches '6 months delay' a bit though from Q4 2021 to Q3 2022, more like nine months.

[casual47] 27/3/2020 16:33

I hope they can fit in a drilling season this year, lockdown permitting, even if it is e.g. only 10,000 metres. That would cost about $3.5m

10km of drills focused solely on Shir Canyon could lift a substantial number of mineralised resource into M&I. I have a hunch that they were very close to doing just that last time round but fell just short of nailing it.

[casual47] 27/3/2020 16:07

Max, yes, I think the q4 2021 was getting very optimistic, especially when they pushed back project finance from q4 2019 to q1 and then to q2 this year.

The "no further requirement for additonal funding at current time" is probably a euphemism for "we can't do any large discretionary capex anyway, even if we wanted, as every country is in lockdown".

That said, I thought it was a very fair update. They were perhaps a little more optimistic about currency and oil than the near-term savings would warrant but compared to other companies the update was open and realistic.

I think an all-share merger with another producing and FCF generating miner would be a logical outcome. There should be plenty win-win reasons for this to happen.

There are certain operational aspects which are best done either well before or well after winter so it's not much of a surprise to see first gold pour go from q4 2021 to q3 2022. A "medium" risk around this was already identified in the BFS:

"Starting the HLF in the winter, when it has no insulation or internal heat capacity, may result in liquor lock-up

Impact: Delayed gold production

Comment: Double stack at the start to provide insulation. Try and start irrigating as soon as possible. Current plan is for stacking to commence in summer"

So I presume instead of summer 2021 they will now do this in spring 2022.

[max244] 27/3/2020 15:36

Wanted to say thanks to Pablo, JC and most of all Casual for ongoing commentary during these stay at home times. Enjoyed this morning’s anthropogeny insights this morning, Casual! I managed to add a bit sub 21p (and will again) but would prefer to see 30s again.
Can’t hide that I’m a bit disappointed first pour is now 3Q22. I (largely) understand why but I do think that a lot of companies will use COVID as a blanket excuse and always felt there was some risk of some slippage from 4Q21 before this happened.

[casual47] 27/3/2020 15:25

Ha. Yep, well spotted. Hopefully a jet stream tailwind.