Chaarat Gold Share Discussion Threads

[max244] 27/3/2020 15:19

Typo? cheaper oil and depreciation in local currencies should act as.....a tailwind, surely.

[casual47] 27/3/2020 13:05

Chaarat Gold* (CGH LN) 27p, Mkt Cap £126m – Operations update in the light of the COVID-19 outbreak

BUY – 44p

At Kapan, operations continue as normal. Supply chains and shipments of products are continuing to operate with little disruption as quarantine measures are not applied to commercial freight. Lower oil prices and a depreciation of the AMD against the USD (~-3% from last year) are expected to help operating costs. Local costs account for 84% of total Kapan expenses.

At Tulkubash, construction works are expected to slow down as the government declared a state of emergency with all local employees having been sent home. The delay in the mobilisation of the workforce will see first gold now moved by six months to Q3/22.. New commissioning target will have a negligible capital cost affect. Weaker oil prices and a depreciation in the Kyrgyz SOM (-12.5% from last year) is expected to benefit project economics. Project funding is being postponed as well amid the outbreak of the virus and is now targeted for completion in H2/20.

On $17m loan refinancing, the Company is in advanced discussions with the holder of the debt that matures on 31 Mar/20. The team is planning to update the market on negotiations once final agreement is in place.

Conclusion: Kapan operations continue as normal supplying precious and base metals concentrates with supply chains reported to be little affected by quarantine measures enacted globally. Tulkubash commissioning schedule is being revised with first gold now expected in Q3/22 and funding completion due in H2/20. While base metal prices pulled back on the back of weaker demand driven by a drop in economic activity, higher gold prices, cheaper oil and depreciation in local currencies should act as headwinds for Kapan and Tulkubash.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Chaarat Gold

[casual47] 27/3/2020 10:20

The "Kyrgyz-Turkish Friendship Hospital", donated by Turkey, contains 22 ventilators.



Have noticed a lot of Kyrgyz-Turkish initiatives recently. The Kyrgyz are a Turkic people so there is a natural affinity.

Chaarat's JV partner was a great choice for this reason as well. It should really help with community relations, as opposed to the Chinese-led projects.

[casual47] 27/3/2020 09:14

Centerra released their annual results yesterday and will be issuing a dividend for the first time since 2016. The Kyrgyz government will receive USD 2.2 million through their 77.4m shareholding (a little over 26%)

[casual47] 27/3/2020 07:59

Pabs, I think the q1 results should be good. The fuel price and currency depreciation will trickle through, I think both are likely to stay low for a good while so may end up being reflected in the BFS modelling, at least in the sensitivities.

The AMD has devalued ~3.5% but I think the real currency difference on the ground in Armenia is higher.

The Kyrgyz som has so far devalued ~15% but again on the ground in Kyrgyzstan you get a lot more som for the dollar.

[casual47] 27/3/2020 07:49

Colin - It's almost embarrassingly mild, if it is Covid. It's been seven days since I developed cough and lung issues so per NHS111 website I should be ready to get out and about soon. I think I had issues a couple of days before the cough though (sudden fatigue, grotty spaced out headachy feeling).

[2pablo] 27/3/2020 07:45

Surprised rns did not mention the impact of rise in PoG. Surely Kapan doing very good business?

Clear, now, Martin is in a Closed period for the next 2 weeks at least

[c0lin1] 27/3/2020 07:37

thanks for inof. How you feeling today?

[casual47] 27/3/2020 07:36

Quite impressed with how well written the RNS was. Whoever is advising them on it did a good job.

[casual47] 27/3/2020 07:33

Colin - I don't think headaches in themselves are an indicator but it's not uncommon. There's also loss of taste or smell which luckily I don't have. Some people start with gastric issues.

[casual47] 27/3/2020 07:29

Thanks Pabs. Could be but e.g. PAF, HOC closed mines and they still went up in recent rebound.

Once as soon as we get the full year results out of the way we should hopefully get the 3m Labro buyback sharpish.

[2pablo] 27/3/2020 07:25

Best of luck recovering Casual, take it steady.

Good update from Artem today but I imagine we'll get hammered 20% or so for the delays. Good community efforts and hopefully our two countries will not suffer too drastically.

[c0lin1] 27/3/2020 07:19

good luck casual with the virus. You mention headaches. I woke with a headache today (which I never do unless self induced) but googled symptoms and you are the only person I have seen who has mentioned headaches.

[casual47] 27/3/2020 07:10

"The Company does not foresee a requirement for any additional fund raising at the current time and will reconsider this position when the COVID-19 pandemic subsides."

Fair update.

[oli12] 27/3/2020 07:09

No real surprises in this mornings RNS.

[casual47] 26/3/2020 22:08

Thanks JC. It's been no hardship so far and I've quite enjoyed the quarantine truth be told.

If it turns out to have been Covid it would be a relief as it could mean I don't have it hanging over me for the rest of the year and can maybe do something useful with this NHS volunteering thing.

[jc2706] 26/3/2020 21:49

Sorry to hear that casual47. I hope that you recover soon.

[jc2706] 26/3/2020 21:48

I can see how they have arrived at 260 deaths at the peak but I disagree with it.

[jc2706] 26/3/2020 21:06

The Oxford study is curious. They seem to have completely circumvented normal academic processes which, in that world, can destroy your career even if you are right. As I understand they do make a pretty fundamental assumption on deaths per thousand population. There is some evidence in Italy to suggest that these assumptions may be inaccurate.

That being said, I am getting the feeling that the virus is more widespread than even the top estimates on this. Anecdotal evidence (I know, hardly the most reliable) is suggestive of such.

[casual47] 26/3/2020 20:47

The message for everyone this coming winter is: get your flu shot! The last thing the NHS needs is you ending up in hospital for the stupid common flu.

[casual47] 26/3/2020 20:42

Yes, I don't think they will be resuming Glastonbury any time soon. I imagine they will gradually relax some restrictions but keep in place others.

The positive news is that with both rapid antigen and antibody testing they should be much better prepared for the next wave. Especially if there is some evidence for the work done by Oxford boffins who think 50% of us already have had it and have recovered.

Belgium has certified a rapid 15 minute antigen test. It isn't perfect and will only work in 70% of cases but that is a huge improvement on waiting several days for the results. They can already get through 70% and then make the 30% that didn't show as having covid take the longer test.

[jc2706] 26/3/2020 20:36

I confess that I was anticipating at least 25k deaths with a possible max. of 100k based on data profile in Italy but the steps being taken around the world have been far tougher than I anticipated. However, this is the first wave and it will be far from over as more waves are likely when restrictions are relaxed.

A peak of 260 looks to be pretty low to be honest.

[casual47] 26/3/2020 18:46

IC boffins now estimate total UK deaths to be 5,700. Peak day estimated to be on 5th April with an estimate of 260 deaths that day.



This is a HUGELY more optimistic scenario than first assumed in the early days.