Chaarat Gold Share Discussion Threads

[casual47] 16/4/2020 15:13

New clip. Artem said that the largest institutional investor will also participate in the fundraise to maintain their holding...

The largest is China non-ferrous so I don't think he means them. The second largest is the Chaarat employee benefit trust, so it's not them either.

So I assume Sarastro will be partaking?

[casual47] 16/4/2020 13:46

My expectation is that the $17m lender will convert up to $5m of debt at 26p also

[casual47] 16/4/2020 13:00

The debt on Kapan is currently $32m. The interest for the year on that debt will be ~$2.75m, the repayments on that debt made during 2020 will total ~$8m ($2.4 of which has already been paid).

So for 2020 the total Kapan debt repayment+interest is about $11m. Taxes will be $1m.

That is more than covered by the projected $23m EBITDA from Kapan for this year (Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization).

If all goes well there should be a few million dollars extra left over from Kapan to go towards the wider Group expenses.

[casual47] 16/4/2020 12:34

Pabs, they will not do an M&A unless the project can 100% sustain itself, i.e. service the debt loaned against it.

Kapan is 100% self-sufficient with the occasional cherry on top for the wider group.

[2pablo] 16/4/2020 12:18

Well take your word on it about the development banks but financing IS delayed anyway.

Debt - if we take over another project, it will clearly mean a lot more debt. Can we really risk that at this time? Oh, sorry, forgot, Artem has to get a takeover in by end of June isn't it? - lol

[casual47] 16/4/2020 11:11

Pabs, every M&A will be self-contained, like it was done with Kapan. Any bank loans would be fully supported and secured by the cash flow and assets of the M&A target.

Remember, Chaarat bought Kapan with only $5m of their own cash. The rest was $40m bank loans and $10m loan notes.

[casual47] 16/4/2020 11:08

Pabs, for M&A you first need lawyers and due diligence, that alone can cost a couple of million dollars.

The money to actually do the acquisition would come from banks once that phase has completed.

[casual47] 16/4/2020 11:07

Pabs, no, he said that as they were working with development banks they did not have any such issues (as for them the key driver is development, something which will become even more necessary as Covid ravages the treasuries of these countries)

[2pablo] 16/4/2020 11:05

Excellent presentation, top team !

I got the idea that our prospective investment banks were not going to rush into finance deals anytime soon and that was why our financing has been put back(again). Admittedly, we have no rush for the Tulkubash financing if transporting in machinery and people is impossible.

Didn't Chris say western banks were triaging which would mean only prioritising certain projects whereas our potential bankers were MORE cautious?

Can't see how this $12m - $14m financing can help with M & A which will very much depend on other financing. It's funny how they even say we could use some of our $12m to reduce debt when we are simultaneously considering exponentially increasing debt if we take over another company

[casual47] 16/4/2020 11:03

Armenia is also an EBRD country, btw.

[casual47] 16/4/2020 11:02

To this date, AFAIK, Chaarat is still the only new major foreign company which has invested in Armenia since their 2018 "velvet revolution".

[casual47] 16/4/2020 10:58

I think this comment from Chris is key:

(Quoting from memory)

"There are not many investment opportunities in either Armenia or Kyrgyzstan so Chaarat as a UK listed company has become the poster child for investing in these countries"

This goes back to what I have been hammering on: I cannot see a better way for e.g. the EBRD to put development funds into Kyrgyzstan than to invest in Chaarat. Corruption by government officials is rife so giving money to them is a huge risk (not even mentioning the incompetence and inability to create wealth) and apart from Chaarat there are no other Western companies which could carry out the multi-decade transformational opportunities generated by a project like Tulkubash and Kyzyltash.

[wilmot666] 16/4/2020 10:49

Agree. I just added.

[casual47] 16/4/2020 10:48

This whole presentation could have been just Chris, for me. I can see how he would be really good in front of an II

[casual47] 16/4/2020 10:41

Darren: no impact on Kapan operations or concentrate offtake from Covid

Chris on financing in Covid environment: "We are dealing with development banks who are more agnostic to the situation"

This is basically what I mentioned here before: development banks such as e.g. EBRD are not going to triangulate on this and perhaps the case for investment has even intensified from a development perspective.

[wilmot666] 16/4/2020 10:34

Quality management team. Great presentation.

[casual47] 16/4/2020 10:29

Chris Eger is really good. Very clear and honest.

Looks like they are looking to cap the current opportunistic raise to below $15m.

He said he would be happy with $13-14m.

[casual47] 16/4/2020 09:37

If you click that link and register it also gives you dial-in info so no need to do the video zoom thing if you can't be bothered with it. (That's what I'll do)

[casual47] 16/4/2020 09:35

Scott -

"Register in advance for this webinar:



After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

If you have not used Zoom before, please download the app for your smart device or accept the download on your computer when you click the link to join below.

The presentation will also be available on the Company's website in the Investors - Presentations section."

[scott1664] 16/4/2020 09:31

Where can you view the conf call casual?

[casual47] 16/4/2020 08:56

Everyone ready for the conf call at 10am?

Was expecting them to release the q1 operational results today, seeing as they are doing a call.

[jc2706] 15/4/2020 18:27

Casual47,

They may not be saying it but that is exactly what they are doing. Not that they have an option as it us inevitable.

The German study was suggesting that 15% was the limit and that the rest were effectively immune. There is evidence to suggest that this is NOTthe case however and I refer you to San Marino as an example of this evidence. The mortality rate, however, seems plausible. If anything I suspect that it may even be slightly lower. But given 70% catch it and 0.37% die then about 150k would die in the UK. This is about 25% of the number that die each year anyway. I suspect that there is a fair degree of commonality between those two groups.

The problem with extended and repeated lockdowns, I suggest that a great deal more will die unrelated to CV.

But there is an alternative approach that I think is likely once the virus has been controlled. That is to allow the majority of the population to go about their normal business whilst hard shielding at risk groups. It is harsh on them but no different to what they are currently experiencing. I believe that this would reduce the death rate significantly.

[casual47] 15/4/2020 16:35

My 2x£5k limit buy orders are still pending....I was denied by Mr. 29p....

[casual47] 15/4/2020 16:06

JC, I agree. Though I'm saying that knowing that I probably already have had Covid and even if I didn't I am well out of the main risk groups.

The problem with herd immunity is that by definition that requires at least 70% of the population to have had it. There seems to be some early data about that only up to 15% maximum of folk have had it so far(*). That would mean at least 55% still need to get it for herd immunity to kick in, which is 36 million in UK. If the covid mortality rate is 0.8% that means 288,000 deaths.

(*) There were articles about the "German Wuhan village" where antibody testing indicated about 15% of the village might have been infected. The mortality rate for the village based on that assumption would be 0.37%. Even if we apply the 0.37% figure to UK that would still mean more than 130,000 deaths to achieve herd immunity. I don't see how any UK politician could argue for this as a policy.