Ceres Power Share Discussion Threads

[oldscallop] 08/12/2017 12:32

Thanks to those who attended the AGM for your feedback. I've been a small holder of CWR since the days when they were developing domestic micro-CHP as their only business line with a lot of support from British Gas. As I recall this failed when the long-term field trials showed unacceptable degredation rates in the fuel cell stack.

As recently as September Ceres issued a news update hxxp://www.cerespower.com/news/latest-news/successful-field-trials/ on apparently successful domestic field trials under the European ene.field programme. Presumably the trial units were the result of their work with KD Navien. On a closer reading it seems that "the trials illustrated that UK consumers could expect savings of around £400 per year on their energy bills by taking advantage of the ability of the SteelCell™ to provide the majority of their power and all of their hot water." As Smokey says, this suggests that the Ceres unit can only be auxiliary to a decent gas condensing boiler as it can't provide heating.

A quick look at the ene.field website hxxp://enefield.eu/ revealed a list of manufacturers offering field trials of micro-CHP in the UK but no mention of Ceres. However their logo (and British Gas's) appeared with other participants. So I wonder if since September KD Navien has withdrawn and Ceres is no longer seriously involved in ene.field.

At least Phil Caldwell's multi-pronged strategy gives hope that at least one of the other technology lines will deliver.

[smokey 1o3] 08/12/2017 10:44

Cerrrito & sleveen IMHO your accounts read together accurately reflect what we were told.
The only thing which I would like your comment on concerns Cerrito's report on JD Navien which reads "Status of JD Navien who have paused work on this and are not putting in engineering resources into this but have emphasized that they want to keep the relationship open".
Would I be correct in saying the "this" is the home CHP? I got the impression it was and that Ceres had nobody else working on it. The trial in Directors homes was with British Gas and it seems only involved a prototype product that worked as an add on to their existing boilers as extra heat required in Winter. Maybe that would be a good entry point product on its own but the fact is we are a long way from a fully functional CHP boiler for use in cold climates which is very disappointing. Do you think I am I right?

[sleveen] 08/12/2017 08:11

3 points from Cerrito's above post, that stand out:

That said difficult to see anything in the next year that will provoke an increase in the share price As mentioned we await the 5th partner and despite what they say in the presentation that this will be done by year end I did not get the impression we will hear anything by then.

We should brace ourselves for a fund raising perhaps as early as the summer- let’s hope they can do it on the basis of good news from Cummins and/or on their other relationships.

The Chairman was asked if any plans for fund raising and he said predictably enough no current plans and Caldwell refused to say when they forecast reaching cash flow breakeven for confidentiality reasons. This is of course very difficult to forecast; indeed I went back to my notes of the 2009 AGM and they were talking about cash flow surpluses in the not too distant future which of course failed to happen.

[cerrito] 07/12/2017 22:13

Made it to the AGM. Appreciate comment/corrections from others who were there.
10/15 private shareholders- average age probably 70+. There was the Full Year results presentation on the Web site; q & a and a factory tour. Whole thing 1 and ¾ hours and directors/senior management available before and after but despite that did not ask all the questions I should have.
Three positives: The first as I had found before I liked the management-they all seem competent , sensible with their feet on the ground. There was a factory tour with the COO and the CTO. For right or wrong I benchmark this with ITM and CWR certainly much less of a one man band and have greater strength on the bench.
The other is the quality and strength of their shareholder base-for me a good litmus test is the percentage of votes cast-here a for an AIM company a high 72%. All resolutions passed with at least 98.5% in favour-including the often voted against disapplication of pre emption rights resolution-see RNS
The third is as usual in the 10 years + since I went to my first CWR AGM a very positive explanation of the tailwinds they enjoy-including air pollution in a way that did not feature so much 10 years ago..
That said difficult to see anything in the next year that will provoke an increase in the share price As mentioned we await the 5th partner and despite what they say in the presentation that this will be done by year end I did not get the impression we will hear anything by then. They confirmed with good body language that they have discussions with various people on the go.. They confirmed capacity to onboard 2/3 relationships per year. Status of JD Navien who have paused work on this and are not putting in engineering resources into this but have emphasized that they want to keep the relationship open.
Mid next year we should get a greenlight on the work they are doing with Cummins and via them with the US Department of Energy with the 10kw data storage and key they do indeed attain the 60% efficiency rate. This seems to be an important event(Incidentally as I understood Caldwell on the basis they get to 60% efficiency they will have got to where they want to get to and will take the foot off the gas on this)
One big announcement we should get in Q1 18 is their new manufacturing site. This will be in the UK and location will depend on grant funding. Problem with Horsham area is that it continues to be very difficult for people to relocate there given housing constraints. I did not ask if it is on the cards that they close the current facility.
They said they have one partner in launch-the undisclosed OEM and they plan to add another by end of year 2018.
The Honda relationship is with power supply division and not autos and did not get idea of timing or indeed when the field trials with Nissan auto will finish.
Went through Slide 18 on steel efficiency.
Seemed relaxed about Brexit. The only EU funded project was the ene one and that has finished and thus horizon 2020 has no impact on them. Virtually all of their business is US, UK and Asia. He was not asked to comment on how work permits would hamper them.
Rather annoyed with myself that I did not dig into who their suppliers are-I see in the AR that supplier risk had not increased.
I failed to get a good insight into cash flow for current FY. My sense is they will spend a little less on R&D and hence a lower tax credit but more on getting the operations up and running and then of course there are all the issues of the factory move. We should get a small increase in revenue. We should brace ourselves for a fund raising perhaps as early as the summer- let’s hope they can do it on the basis of good news from Cummins and/or on their other relationships.
The Chairman was asked if any plans for fund raising and he said predictably enough no current plans and Caldwell refused to say when they forecast reaching cash flow breakeven for confidentiality reasons. This is of course very difficult to forecast; indeed I went back to my notes of the 2009 AGM and they were talking about cash flow surpluses in the not too distant future which of course failed to happen. Anyone have access to the Zeus/Berenberg research notes and what they say?
My gut tells me this will work out well in the fullness of time though my brain is finding it hard to justify a £114 marcap.

[muffinhead] 07/12/2017 16:46

Richard Preston pay package £179000 2016/17 (base salary, bonus and pension contribution)

[pottermagic2310] 07/12/2017 12:01

So in 3 years time he's expecting to rake it in taking up these options at 10.6p at that time... nothing wrong with that... assuming the equivalent share price is x2, x3 or x4 that 10.6p valuation !!

[sleveen] 07/12/2017 10:53

These options will be exercisable between 1 February 2021 and 31 July 2021 at an exercise price of 10.6p per share.

Included in the above is a grant to Richard Preston, the Company's Chief Financial Officer, who has been granted an option to purchase 84,905 Ordinary Shares. Following this grant, Richard Preston now holds options over 6,830,679 Ordinary Shares.

[muffinhead] 07/12/2017 10:52

"Richard Preston now holds options over 6,830,679 Ordinary Shares"

[angus17] 07/12/2017 10:39

I couldn't even bring myself to read the RNS. Is that the option buy price 10.6p?

Rather losing the faith I'm afraid.

[sleveen] 07/12/2017 09:24

At this rate everyone will be able to buy at 10.6p.

[angus17] 07/12/2017 07:12

Or awarding themselves free shares.
God almighty.

[ben chod] 06/12/2017 20:36

Scrutable I suspect CWR aretoobusy patting themselveson the back and winningawards

[angus17] 06/12/2017 16:05

Anything interesting would have been announced prior to ago. Therefore nothing price sensitive at agm.

But where is the last commercial partner that they promised for 2017 and indeed the chp deal.

Not many days of the year left.
Are we just another afc.

[pottermagic2310] 06/12/2017 15:41

Maybe you need to wait a short while for an official statement regarding things discussed/presented at the AGM to be commmunicated formally, once everything has been captured clearly & concisely ?????.......

[scrutable] 06/12/2017 15:24

I am very disappointed, that CWR has put out no Statement as made to those attending today's AGM. An expectation, was generated by the company of commercialisation by Q4/17 of their CHP collaboration. If the program has fallen behind, why no explanation?

Long patient shareholders have a right to an annual comment on progress with at least some of CWR's cooperations with Nissan, Cummins, Honda and other undisclosed clients

What's up in Horsham?

[sleveen] 05/12/2017 07:57

Note Cummins' interest:

Within the trucking business, Tesla, Cummins and several other manufacturers are in the fray to build the next generation. But it’s still too early to tell how the pros, cons and dollars stack up. Over the next couple of years, CFOs will be grinding spreadsheets to see if electrified trucks make financial sense. Lower energy and maintenance costs, as well as the promise of efficiency gains by virtue of autonomous driving technologies, tells me there is significant potential for electric propulsion in trucking. I think some niches are likely to haul change in the near future. Within the heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) market I’ll put my money on step vans first – the type that blocks a city road when delivering my Amazon order.

[kwizza] 01/12/2017 13:58

CERES POWER’S STEELCELL™ WINS PRESTIGIOUS ‘INNOVATIVE PRODUCT OF THE YEAR AWARD’ AT ICHEME GLOBAL AWARDS

[smokey 1o3] 21/11/2017 11:58

This is what they said in October.

"Agreement signed in May 2017 with an existing Global OEM to develop a residential CHP system. On track to sign fifth partner by the end of 2017."

I believe the May 2017 entity is likely the existing Navien connection and we are due another announcement of a 5th Partner. When?

[smokey 1o3] 21/11/2017 11:40

Scrutable.

Does this help?

SPS starts major new project

13th June 2017/in Events /
We are delighted to announce that SPS will be collaborating with one of its longest standing customers Ceres Power Ltd. on a new Innovate UK project for the next 18 months. This is aimed at taking the existing fully-qualified compact power electronics (PE) system for domestic micro CHP and making it production ready for other markets including the Far East. The existing PE unit has been in constant use for 8 years at Ceres Power, including the SteelGen™ units deployed with British Gas in the European funded ene.field programme.

SPS is looking forward to the opportunity to apply the latest technologies to the system as well as gain experience in different geographical markets each of which has their own challenges.

[pottermagic2310] 20/11/2017 19:14

I have to say I'm on the edge of my seat with this one... again.... please, please let it be a big moment in this Business's history at long last

[tradertrev] 20/11/2017 14:33

Scroot, News from Pedants' Corner. I can tell you exactly who the licensor will be. It will be ....... Ceres Power! More interesting will be the identity of the licensee.

[scrutable] 20/11/2017 13:56

I wonder how many holders of CWR, hope, as I do, for, or even expect, an RNS coinciding with the AGM to announce commercialisation of the Steel Cell for CHP boilers as targeted for Q4 2017 by Phil Cawdwell, I think at the 2016 AGM. The licensor remained undisclosed but could be BG with whom Ceres was known to be in touch some years back, or KD Navien the $5b turover global boiler manufacturer from SKorea, which has been selling its boilers from its European HQ in Sheffield.

We were told that several execs had at the time been trialing the first Steel Cell fired boilers in their own homes. There was no word of difficulties. There has been no mention of the timetable for commercial launch falling behind target, so I am left hopeful.

[scrutable] 20/11/2017 11:10

I believe that Elon Musk is heading for disaster, with his disproportionate bet on lithium-Ion batteries, not only for their dependence on scarce cobalt supplies, but which will also to be shortlived, particularly when rapidly charged ie within say 5 years, and expensive to replace.

It is only thinly known that the liquid vanadium carbonate electrolyte in the Redox flow battery which is just becoming a realistic alternative technology, can be charged and recharged almost ad infinitum.

Those interested in this burgeoning competition should DYOR on the timy company RED-T, which has this year seeded 20 or so countries with their first Redox electrical storage solutions for surplus wind and solar energy , including off grid replacements in desert environments for diesel generation. The recent 1MW order from Monash University (Melbourne), one of the largest universities in the world will become a key reference site.

[ben chod] 20/11/2017 11:05

interesting that could account for the drop in Tesla model3 sales but even Musk cant missatrick with hydrogen

hxxp://www.thedrive.com/sheetmetal/15797/meet-project-hesla-the-first-hydrogen-powered-tesla-model-s