Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[ken tennis] 25/10/2018 10:34

EZZA morning yes I see what you mean bout selling off staring around 1.30 to 2.00 pm I just put a dummy sell order in for 10000 shares at 10.28 am exactly and they giving me 215.35 which is higher than the price displayed on the spread so I think they want my shares I think this could move higher up till around 12.00 mid day.
ATB

[zebbo] 25/10/2018 08:43

Just to add I committed another 30k this AM, crazy price

[zebbo] 25/10/2018 08:42

junior21, lets not forget the current divergence. CU CFDs going short, whilst in reality the physical market is tight and will continue to tighten.

IMHO I expect tightness to cause a closing of shorts over the coming months and the opening of long positions

[junior21] 24/10/2018 20:47

Interesting to see Freeport release Q3 figures today which beat guidance, however shares currently trading down 8% after opening up. There also didn’t appear to be any new negative news in their update (that I’m aware).

It makes me think miners are currently being priced with futher falls in copper and metals in mind. Freeport now nearly 50% off its January highs earlier in the year.

[ken tennis] 24/10/2018 20:04

Cheers EEZA I will have a look at that tomorrow.

[eeza] 24/10/2018 19:42

Well there seems to be a seller, using AT trades, who starts at 1400hrs - look at the daily charts.
I haave mentioned this a few times over the past 3 weeks or so.

[ken tennis] 24/10/2018 18:37

Ezza cheers but I can’t understand why CAML is so low at present when CU and ZN have moved up from mid September and remained relatively stable, at the time CAML moved up with them but now it returned to the September low but Cu and ZN still up there.
Any ideas.
Ken

[eeza] 24/10/2018 17:55

Well done Ken, as you say - Brilliant timing (2 secs to close).
Hope it bounces for you tomorrow.

[ken tennis] 24/10/2018 17:24

Ye EEZA that was me bloody brilliant timing or what haha
I sold out of FRES yesterday 16000 shares so got a bit of play money
and couldn't resist at this price I will probably sell it tomorrow if I get a profit and FRES drops back as I already had 15800 CAML before I baught these today.
ATB ken

[eeza] 24/10/2018 16:32

Someone snuck a 10,000 buy in at 211.38 with 2 seconds to spare.
ROTA ?

[eeza] 24/10/2018 16:11

The 1400hrs sell-off once more.

May be re-investing div at the year's low.

[mount teide] 24/10/2018 15:42

Copper sector heavyweight Antofagasta is currently down from the 2018 peak by the same 36% as CAML; while copper has retraced 16% from the 2018 high.

Antofagasta today reduced its copper production guidance for the full-year to a range of 705,000 to 725,000 tonnes, down from 705,000 tonnes to 740,000 tonnes previously.

Copper production in the third quarter increased by 15.4% to 188,300 tonnes compared to the previous quarter while gold production increased 21.2% to 48,100 but the first nine months of output fell by 30.1% to 120,100 ounces as grades were down at Centinela.

Net cash costs were $1.27 a pound for the quarter, a 15.3% decrease compared with the previous quarter. Net cash cost guidance for the full year was unchanged at $1.35 a pound.

Total capital expenditure for the year was expected to be less than the $1.0bn previously guided.

'While we benefited from higher production in the quarter, our disciplined approach to costs has allowed us to combat inflationary pressures during the year which, combined with the strong molybdenum market, has contributed to a 15% fall in our net cash costs to $1.27/lb and for the full year guidance remains unchanged at $1.35/lb.'

[mount teide] 24/10/2018 13:15

Lauders - reference dividend re-investment - i'm not underestimating the market's potential to run the price up into Friday

[ken tennis] 24/10/2018 10:14

ROTA Sorry man that was meant to be 10,000 shares what a plonker

[ken tennis] 24/10/2018 10:12

ROTA if this helps you I just put a buy order in for 1000 shares current price to buy 214.3756 this was with Hargreaves.

ATB Ken

[lauders] 24/10/2018 01:59

Chunky 3% interim dividend payment due Friday

Hopefully a lot of these funds will be re-invested in CAML at these levels. Will possibly help support the share price around these levels for the time being!

[return_of_the_apeman] 23/10/2018 21:50

Hi Ken, yes and noted

Cheers

[mount teide] 23/10/2018 20:53

Chunky 3% interim dividend payment due Friday

[ken tennis] 23/10/2018 17:50

ROTA is that 50k shares cause that's quite a lump for these guys the EMS is only 5000 so I can see why they quoting you 223.78

try buying tranches of £15k you may have to pay for a few trades but certainly cheaper then what you been quoted.

ATB Ken

[mr roper] 23/10/2018 14:11

P/e of 9 ish and yielding near 7.5%. Think I'll put some in the kids isa.

[return_of_the_apeman] 23/10/2018 14:00

Being quoted 223.78 for 50k, will have to buy in smaller chunks to build a decent stake here

[shieldbug] 23/10/2018 10:04

Copper warehouse levels now approaching lows of 2016 and 2014. LME warehouse levels down almost 60% from April high. Comex warehouse levels down 16% in last 60 days.

[lauders] 23/10/2018 06:38

Although this is a few months old it still illustrates what MT has been "banging on about" re: China and commodities ;-)



China’s Staggering Demand for Commodities
>50% of all steel, cement, nickel, and copper goes there

Can't be bad for CAML!

[mount teide] 22/10/2018 20:45

Copper: Buy the Dip - Goehring & Rozencwajg / October 2018 Client Note


'Copper equities have pulled back significantly in the last six months and we believe that many offer excellent risk-reward characteristics.

Of all the base metals, copper has pulled back the most on trade-war fears. Not only have we seen a significant liquidation by financial speculators here in the United States, but persistent rumors keep appearing in the financial press regarding significant forced liquidations by various Chinese financiers speculating in global copper markets.

Since peaking at $3.30 per pound in June, copper prices have pulled back significantly.

As mentioned several times in our Q2 2018 letter, we don’t know how this trade war will play out nor how vicious it will get, but we want to outline copper fundamentals as they exist today.

First, global copper demand remains strong, particularly from China. For the first four months of 2018, data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) shows that after a lackluster 2017, copper demand in China surged 15% year-over-year. The other pocket of copper demand came from India, which also showed a 15% increase in year-over-year demand. We have written that our models indicate India’s copper demand should see years of extremely strong growth and this is what we are most likely beginning to see. Driven by China and India, world copper demand grew by 4.5%, even with flat year-over-year consumption in the OECD world.

On the supply side, world mine supply grew by 4.5% year-over-year, but this represented nothing more than the return of the giant Escondida mine which experienced a 45-day strike in the first quarter of 2017. Escondida, which represents 5% of world mine supply, came back into full production at the beginning of April 2017. Since Escondida’s return, global mine supply has shown no growth. We continue to forecast little growth in global copper mine supply until the large Cobre Panama project commences production in the second half of next year.

Regarding global inventories, exchange-traded inventories (LME, Shanghai, and Comex) have declined significantly since the end of the first quarter. Given our models of mine supply, demand growth, and declining inventories, we believe the copper market today has returned to slight deficit.

Where do we go from here? Today, China represents a little over 50% of total world copper demand. We don’t have much data on how the Trump administration trade tariffs will impact Chinese growth either short- or long-term. The need to build out the electrical grid in China has been by far the largest demand source for copper over the last 20 years. Given China’s stated goal of growing its consumer economy, this source of copper demand will only grow in the future. A July 19th 2018 Bloomberg article succinctly describes the continued need to build out the Chinese electric grid:

“After Winter Heat Crisis, China Braces for Summer Power Crunch.... Parts of China are at risk of shortages as the nation’s distribution networks struggle to cope with soaring temperatures and the fastest power consumption growth in seven years.”

Much of the non-OECD world, most notably China and India, is now squarely in the midst of a period of rapid acceleration in copper consumption. Also, new demand associated with building out the global renewable grid strongly suggests copper demand growth will continue to surprise well into the middle of next decade. Combining strong demand with a mine supply situation that becomes more and more constrained implies to us that the copper bull market still has many years to run. The weakness we are seeing today will, in retrospect, represent a tremendous buying opportunity.'

[mount teide] 22/10/2018 14:00

China’s stock market has closed for the day with its biggest surge in three years - Bloomberg

The CSI300 index ended the day 4.3% higher at 3,270, its biggest rise in almost three years, thanks to the flurry of reassuring noises from Chinese politicians and officials.

The Shanghai Composite index, another benchmark, leapt by 4.1% - its biggest one-day gain since March 2016.

President Xi Jinping pledge to always support private firms helped fuel the rally, says Yang Hai, an analyst at Kaiyuan Securities, who believes the market will rebound further - especially with tax cuts on the horizon.