Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[zebbo] 11/10/2018 07:33

Cannot wait, great buying opportunity :-)

Fillyerboots

[topazfrenzy] 11/10/2018 07:27

Put your hard hats on, or get out while you still can, the copper trade is over

China down 5% overnight

[3noddy] 11/10/2018 07:13

Chinese copper demand has been so strong in the past few months that top producer Codelco has almost sold out of supplies for next year, well ahead of schedule, according to the chairman of the Chilean state-owned company.

“It’s extremely strong, not only China. It’s extremely strong around the world," Juan Benavides, who took over as chairman of Codelco in May, said in an interview in London. The wave of buying comes as prices have fallen 15 percent this year amid fears that a trade war between the U.S. and China could stifle global growth.

"The trade war is not good at all," but “demand is strong, inventories are low, supply is not growing as much as demand," he said. He sees prices rising above $3 per pound ($6,612 a ton) as demand outpaces supply. Futures are trading at about $6,218 a ton on the London Metal Exchange Tuesday.

Mining companies and investors are increasingly bullish on copper because of limited supply and falling global stockpiles. Codelco has locked in copper-cathode supply contracts with European buyers at a premium of $98 a metric ton over benchmark prices, the highest since 2015. Premiums for contracts signed this year with clients in China and the U.S. are also up by 15 to 17 percent.

This year’s sales are “amazingly good," said Codelco Vice President Roberto Ecclefield. "It’s the first time you see China, the U.S., and the Europeans very strong. And that is unique in many years." .......

[topazfrenzy] 10/10/2018 23:36

Gosh you’re naive, this will sink like a stone with all the others.

[mount teide] 10/10/2018 21:38

That our resident share tipping "Guru" has returned once again to grace us with the benefit of his 'market wisdom' is always a hugely reliable and welcome signal that the bottom of any wider market correction is not far away.

The last time he told us £1.50 was nailed on was when the share price was £2.30 last summer - it went in one direction afterwards - Straight UP to £3.39!

Many traders favourites with extremely frothy valuations have taken a real hammering over the last month or two:

-35% Fevertree
-40% Plus 500
-35% XLM
-35% Die Roboter
-34% Debenhams
-33% Purplebricks
-44% Zoo Digital
-23% GVC Holdings

The wider general market should benefit from having the froth wiped off the top.

[zebbo] 10/10/2018 21:33

Buying op tomorrow for sure 8% yield looking good particularly against the CU demand backdrop. The conundrum is, do I get in quick or wait for bot trading, which will throw up the biggest opportunity?

[topazfrenzy] 10/10/2018 21:14

You had your chance to get out on this last bounce, expect a blood bath tomorrow and beyond, my £1.50 target should be hit by Xmas

[eeza] 10/10/2018 20:14

Dow down almost 600pts at the moment.

Won't be pleasant tomorrow.

[warranty] 10/10/2018 19:53

A chance to top up again if it goes much lower before a more sustained rise. The market's topsy turvey at the moment and throws up some very interesting opportunities.

[eeza] 10/10/2018 17:20

Selling started at 1400hrs, as per normal.


Quite a drop from ~245 on day of XD.

[scottishfield] 10/10/2018 17:08

Wider mkt sell off has done the damage.

[novicetrade68] 10/10/2018 17:03

Seems completely unwarranted, a 15p swing, yet copper price doing fine as well as zinc.

[eeza] 10/10/2018 16:47

Even for this stock, quite a day.

[mount teide] 10/10/2018 09:23

LME Copper Stocks have more than halved from 370,000 tonnes to 180,000 tonnes during the the last 6 months to reach a point where the inventory is now back very close to a decade low.

It was no coincidence that after LME Copper stocks built from 180,000 tonnes to 370,000 tonnes between Dec 2017 and March 2018, the price of copper commenced its first correction of the new commodity cycle which started in Feb 2016.

Market fundamentals are suggesting a return to $3+ copper is probably not too far away.

[shieldbug] 09/10/2018 12:55

A 2014 article in Scientific American based on research by Norwegian University of Science and Technology, claims "solar photovoltaics require up to 40 times the copper than traditional coal, oil or natural gas-fired power plants"

Likely this is out of date and the "up to" qualifier should not be missed. Would be interested in any other information on this. The article goes on - "new renewable power installations would increase the demand for iron and steel by 10 percent by 2050, and the copper that would be needed for photovoltaic systems are equivalent to two years of current global copper production."

[mount teide] 09/10/2018 07:55

IEA: Renewables Set For Explosive Growth - OilPrice.com




'Here are a few more staggering statistics. Between 2017 and 2023, renewables will cover a full 40 percent of the additional growth in energy consumption. And by 2023, renewables will account for nearly a third of total electricity generation worldwide.

Solar PV will move front and center over the next few years, the IEA argues. Solar PV is expected to grow by 600 gigawatts through 2023, having already jumped by 97 GW last year. That 600 GW is equivalent to twice the size of Japan’s entire capacity.'

[mrtenpercent] 08/10/2018 14:21

Referring to posts on 24 September which I have only just read (catching up)
@MT - well said. I don't think this board exhibits 'intolerance of dissent' or 'unidirectional groupthink'. You are positive about CAML and that's obvious from your posts but you always try to back up your opinions with evidence.

I do wish these boards had moderators. I have just been driven to distraction by a discussion on the RMG board which has degenerated into a pro/anti Brexit shouting match.

[briggs1209] 08/10/2018 12:50

I cannot see CAML touching ARS. CAML will want a project with years of production both past and remaining. They will want a cheap project that is easy to understand. This is why they had to look at so many companies before their recent purchase

[mount teide] 07/10/2018 20:26

Zebbo - interesting speculation but probably unlikely - Nick Clarke/CAML's stated longer term growth plan is based upon securing further highly accretive producing assets - far easier said than done in today's tight market particularly when that market is forecast to continue tightening into highly material deficit through to 2025

The ARS management want to use the very low cost BKM Heap Leach Copper project scheduled to go into 25,000 tonnes/yr production in 2020 to finance the currently ongoing further resource evaluation and development through to production of the 6 times larger and growing Beutong porphyry asset - uniquely situated close to a power station and deep sea port and with a made up road running directly past the location; as well having access to unlimited water resources.

ARS management are looking at a number of options for Beutong including a heap leach starter operation for the initial 500m of resource which outcrops at surface - initial tests to evaluate the potential for a heap leach operation were highly encouraging and have immediately led to a much more comprehensive testing and evaluation programme.

[zebbo] 07/10/2018 19:49

Any thoughts around CAML hooking up with ARS. Now that would be interesting.

No idea what the potential CU extraction costs would be at the ARS Beutong project. Just musing the idea of CAML growing med term

[mount teide] 06/10/2018 16:52

When researching Industrial Metal and O&G equity investment ideas, two friends and i(all 40 year senior management veterans of the global supply chain industry - shipping/ports) have refined our approach over the decades such that we now place an extremely high investment case weighting on the following:

1 - Stage of the commodity cycle

2 Career track record of Management
3 Management response/answers to some very direct questions
4 Quality and growth potential of the the assets/business

Other than in the most exceptional of circumstances we now only invest in the recovery stage of the highly cyclical commodity markets(as we don't short) - therefore the first item on the above list is of critical importance.

The one exception we made during the industrial metals sector recession between 2010 and H2/2016 was CAML - which incredibly, during the last 8 years, 6 of them a severe recession that decimated the sector, returned an almost unbelievable 20% CAGR - while nearly all other miners generated negative returns.

Number 2 - We only invest in proven senior management who can demonstrate outstanding success in a previous commodity cycle recovery stage.

Number 3 - We ask some extremely direct questions of management both eye to eye and via written correspondence. We expect them to respond by being open and not getting offended by our directness and by providing as much information as is possible within market rules. One CEO, a hard nosed businessman who shall remain nameless was magnificent and actually said; "I am not at all offended by your questions, its your hard earned money, in your shoes i would be asking exactly the same questions!". Needless to say we have been long term investors in his business which continues to go from strength to strength.

Number 4 - While very important, it has a slightly lower weighting than 2 & 3 on the list. Outstanding management in a recovery stage of a commodity cycle can often deliver a much better investment return for their shareholders with average/good quality assets to work with than a modest/inexperienced/poor management can with extremely high quality assets.

Give an outstanding, highly experienced and successful management team with the triumphs and scars of a few long term commodity market cycles etched deeply into their backs, great assets to work with in a new commodity market recovery stage and, the risk/reward for exceptional shareholder returns is potentially excellent.

The most outstanding company's/management's to pass muster with respect to our highly demanding small/mid cap investment case requirements in this new commodity market recovery stage are (in addition to CAML): ARS / TXP / JSE

Some have assets that are potentially world class with exceptional growth prospects - in the hands of outstanding management such assets have the potential to deliver extraordinary returns as was seen during the last commodity cycle when during a long period of modest supply deficits between 2000 and 2008, one management team grew the market cap of Oxiana Metals 2,000 fold from a $3m junior to an an almost unbelievable $6bn large cap and another built an O&G company from scratch to a highly profitable and valuable 20,000 bopd business; while another generated between USD7 – 10 billion of net present value to a company.


As former all time great Olympic athlete Michael Johnson recently said, give an outrageously talented athlete(management) with one in a billion genetics exposure to even a modest programme of chemical assistance(assets with world class potential to work with) as the East German State did to their superstar athlete Marita Koch in the 1980's and, the results are so far off the charts due to the exceptionally high natural talent starting point, that you end up with almost impossible to believe superhuman performances like her 400 metres WR(2,000 fold market cap increases) "that will probably stand the test of time for at least another 100 years without ever being troubled."

[mount teide] 06/10/2018 15:58

When Codelco the World's largest copper miner is forced to spend $25bn of its shareholders funds over 5 years JUST TO MAINTAIN EXISTING OUTPUT, it puts into stark perspective how quickly ore grades are continuing to fall at the major global mines - the top 20 of which supply 50% of the World's copper production.


Chief Investment Officer of BlackRock's Natural Resource team Evy Hambro sees worrying uncertainty around the copper capital investment the industry needs to deal with today's tight market and looming major deficits - "permitting delays are now commonplace across the industry - it's just taking so long to get something into production - i think the market is not pricing that into today's metal prices on the street"

The more supply/demand research i do the stronger the belief grows the market is sleep walking into another pricing super-spike over the next 3-4 years.

[coxsmn] 06/10/2018 14:06

I watched a recent bloomberg presentation and they were suggesting 5yrs until we hit a large copper deficit. Regardless of all these predictions, what we have is a world wide increasing copper demand, power infrastructure, power storage batteries, ev revolution, electronics etc etc. Caml ticks all the boxes, excellent trustworthy management, low cost producer, high dividend, low p/e, growth. Happy days.