Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[waterloo01] 04/1/2019 16:49

Any further on today. Looks like sensible move, but even with metals up today, little share price reaction?

[carcosa] 04/1/2019 09:22

0920 GMT - Central Asia Metals' debt restructuring could see lower repayments result in cash surpluses that're significantly higher than currently expected, Peel Hunt analysts say. The brokerage says the company's new loan agreement should lower annual repayments by around $9 million a year. Peel Hunt also expects copper prices to react positively to Chinese stimulus plans, which in turn should result in Central Asia Metals dishing out higher dividend payments, given the company's strong exposure to the red metal. Shares are up 2.4% at 2.18 pence. ([e-mail]; @OliGGriffin)

[mr roper] 04/1/2019 08:05

Sensible mgmt

[eeza] 04/1/2019 08:03

RNS
Debt refinancing.

[melody9999] 31/12/2018 08:48

hxxps://www.bhp.com/media-and-insights/prospects/2017/11/ten-reasons-why-we-like-copper?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Organic&utm_campaign=Prospects&;utm_content=Outlook

[ken tennis] 19/12/2018 08:01

Funny scenarios here this shares been following CU and ZN for last few months now it’s going the opposite direction metals down and share price up but I’m not complaining

[andyj] 19/12/2018 02:31

The chart is beginning to look considerably brighter.

[shieldbug] 18/12/2018 16:38

All 3 metals are down in the past few days. Perhaps the share price is rising in anticipation of 2018 operations update in mid January. First full year including production from Sasa.

[waterloo01] 18/12/2018 15:55

Surprisingly strong given copper?

[arf dysg] 14/12/2018 14:28

The above post (2567) is spam. It's on loads of unrelated BBs.

[aussiedonnie] 14/12/2018 12:03

Worth a few quid I think.

[robizm] 13/12/2018 11:45

It means they use stock piles like london metal exchange holds some

[zangdook] 13/12/2018 08:02

What does it mean to say there is a shortage of 200,000 tons of refined copper? Is that just an observation of the difference between production and consumption, with the balance made up from stockpiles? Or do copper-using projects which can't pay higher prices get cancelled because the stuff simply isn't there, until refineries increase capacity?

[ken tennis] 12/12/2018 12:51

MT and 3NODDY great posts im still holding this share and have added in the last 2 weeks.
Your in depth analysis gives me great confidence, I also have a substantial pot in GLEN.
Keep the good posts coming in they're very much appreciated.
ATB Ken

[mount teide] 10/12/2018 01:07

The inflation adjusted peak price of the last copper market cycle was over $5.00. Other than in the highly unlikely event of a catastrophic global recession of intensity similar to the Great Depression the copper market fundamentals point strongly to a long period where demand will greatly exceed supply, as a result of a dearth of investment in exploration and production development - similar to that experienced during 1994 to 2000.

This will inevitably result in much stronger copper pricing over the years ahead, possibly to a level that many might consider beyond highly improbable today. Market sentiment today is very similar to that during 1998-2001, before the market took off as a result of a growing supply deficit generated by a waterfall drop in investment during a brutal copper market recession colliding with a constant average copper market growth of 2-2.5% per annum; which has now been going on for over 40 years - and is expected to accelerate over the next decade as a result of an additional and highly material demand from green initiatives and electric vehicles.

After the first two weeks of a three week 'investment research' visit travelling around SE Asia the observations that have most influenced my thinking, in terms of future commodity demand(since a previous visit three years ago), is the massive increase in vehicle and smartphone(4G networks) ownership and property development/modernisation and national transport infrastructure development. Incredibly, the phenomenal growth in demand generated by this fast growing region over the last decade for industrial metals and oil and gas is still in its infancy, accelerating and likely to remain highly elevated for many more decades. Even today the per capita consumption of copper and oil compared to the West, is still barely ONE SEVENTH ACROSS THIS HIGH POPULATION REGION AND ONE FIFTEENTH IN INDIA.

Since, the fast growing and developing Nations of China, SE Asia and India have a population more the 4 times greater than the West, from what i've seen on this visit to date, at this stage of the latest commodity market cycle i am very comfortable indeed having over 80% of my investment portfolio currently in oil and industrial metals equities.

AIMHO/DYOR

ps - what many unfamiliar with this fast developing region may be overlooking, is that the average 4.50% to 6.75% GDP growth today generates a much greater annual increase in demand for oil and copper than the 7% to 10% growth achieved 15 years ago since, most of the economies are now more than twice as big.

[mount teide] 09/12/2018 05:13

Some insightful analysis on the current state of the copper market some 2.5 years into the recovery stage of a new market cycle.


It’s sentiment over fundamentals for copper amid trade war - Cogensis / Dec 6

The copper market has been caught in the whirlwind of a trade war between the US and China.

Copper started the year on a high of $7,200 per tonne due to fear of supply disruptions. It then tumbled to $6,140 per tonne as supply worries eased and US-China trade tensions escalated.

This is largely because copper is considered the bellwether of global economic health, making it susceptible to downward pressure whenever there are doubts over global economic growth. The headlines over a trade dispute between the US and China that hit the market every now and then have not helped the market sentiment either.

Macroeconomic concerns have clouded the picture on fundamentals for copper. As we enter the new year in a few weeks, it is worth taking stock of the situation and analyse whether the market is ignoring the supply-demand dynamics due to macroeconomic worries.

China accounts for almost half the global copper consumption. A slew of data released in the past few weeks has shown that the country’s economy is stuttering. This has also weighed on copper.

Nevertheless, physical markets, for both refined and concentrates, tell a different story. China imported 521,000 tonnes of copper in September, the largest monthly import volume since March 2016. Though refined copper imports fell to 423,000 tonnes in October, they were still up 27% year on year. Overall, in the first 10 months of the year, China imported 3.76 mln tn of refined copper, up 17.2% on year.

Copper stocks at LME warehouses have continued to decline, falling to 128,200 tn this week and marking a low not seen since July 2008. Meanwhile, COMEX copper stocks were at 132,842 tonnes of Monday, down from 230,376 tonnes in March.

Antofagasta, a major copper mining producer, and Jiangxi Copper, the largest copper smelter in China, have agreed to lower treatment and refining charges of $80.8 per tn and 8.08 cents per tn, respectively, for 2019, the lowest fee in six years. Usually, this signals more demand for copper concentrates.

The tightness in the copper market is also being reflected in the futures market. The LME cash to three-month spread of copper has been in backwardation, which typically indicates shortage of the commodity.

According to latest reports by the International Copper Study Group and World Bureau of Statistics, the copper market was in a deficit in the first seven-eight months of this year. Though both the entities differ in their estimate of the deficit, one striking aspect is the circumstances in which the market has recorded a shortage.

Last year, copper prices skyrocketed, following a strike at the Escondida mine in Chile, the largest copper mining country. Also, there was a 12.5% decline in Indonesia’s copper production. As a result, the copper market recorded a deficit of 266,000 tn in 2017.

During the first eight months of this year, the copper market was in a deficit of 259,000 tn, against a deficit of 98,000 tn in the year-ago period, according to the study group data. So far this year, the copper market has been in a deficit without any major supply disruptions.

These are signs the market cannot continue to ignore. The copper market is expected to face a shortage next year as well. The transition from open-pit to underground mining at the world’s second-largest copper mine, Grasberg in Indonesia, is estimated to lead to an output loss of around 300,000 tn next year.

Moreover, copper producers have warned that trade tensions initiated by the US could slow investments in major new copper projects. Miners have been saying that for them to make new investments, the price of copper should be around $6,600 per tn.

There is broad consensus among analysts that copper prices will rise from current levels, most likely towards $7,000 per tn. At present, investors and speculators are playing it safe. According to commodity brokerage firm Marex Spectron, speculative short positions on LME copper remain largely neutral.

Perhaps, being neutral ahead of the year-end would be right for investors to rejig their commodity profile. When there is euphoria around a commodity, investors tend to take large long positions. The reverse happens in case of too much pessimism in market sentiment. And, when the tide turns against them, they may be forced to liquidate long positions at a loss, while shorts may have to run for cover.

Right now, copper is undervalued, and a little calculated risk when fundamentals are positive may prove rewarding for investors in 2019.'

[3noddy] 08/12/2018 14:40

I would’ve thought most governments will be thinking about ending subsidies for EV’s in the not too distant future....

[the deacon] 07/12/2018 21:56

Irrespective of whether Donald is on board with the EV revolution or not, there'll be no stopping the juggernaut globally.

[shieldbug] 07/12/2018 20:36

Trump stops help for EVs in US. Pretty sure this will do the US economy no favours at all and will just hand EV leadership to the Chinese.

[santar] 06/12/2018 13:40

It’s kidnapping for ransom. The US are becoming worse than the Somali pirates.

[eeza] 06/12/2018 12:08

Now it's called 'Trumpism'.

[podgyted] 06/12/2018 12:01

Until the small matter of the arrest of the CFO of Huawei is resolved I'm out of metal stocks.

Why oh why can't the US authorities just talk to people - it used to be called diplomacy.

[leopoldalcox] 04/12/2018 13:39

Zinc, lead and copper all performing well over the last few days. :)