Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[coxsmn] 06/10/2018 14:06

I watched a recent bloomberg presentation and they were suggesting 5yrs until we hit a large copper deficit. Regardless of all these predictions, what we have is a world wide increasing copper demand, power infrastructure, power storage batteries, ev revolution, electronics etc etc. Caml ticks all the boxes, excellent trustworthy management, low cost producer, high dividend, low p/e, growth. Happy days.

[lauders] 06/10/2018 12:35

“Declining ore grades for copper, continued lack of investment in new mines and the time required to bring new discoveries to production will constrain metal availability and, ultimately, the metal sector's ability to meet growing demand from automakers for battery electric vehicle production” says Carol Cowan, a Moody's Senior Vice President.

Moody's forecasts copper consumption in BEVs could increase more than six times based on the rating agency's base scenario of penetration levels reach 8% by mid-2020. This demand level would far outstrip supply, which will be relatively flat over the next several years.

Analysts expect BEV's share of new vehicle sales will rise to approximately 7%-8% by the mid-2020's and reach nearly 17%-19% by the late 2020's.

According to a report by Morgan Stanley: “As many as one billion battery electric vehicles (BEVs) could be on the road throughout the world by 2050.”

This is “spurred in part by existing and proposed emissions legislation that could sharply increase the cost of manufacturing internal combustion engines”

“A confluence of competitive, technological and regulatory forces have pulled-forward auto maker’s plans to aggressively introduce EVs over the next 3 to 5 years vs. 20 to 25 years previously.” said Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley’s Head of Global Auto & Shared Mobility Research.

This follows an announcement by Denmark’s Prime Minister, Lars Lokke Rasmussen, to ban the sale of new fossil-fueled cars in 2030 and aim to have more than 1 million electric or hybrid vehicles on its roads by that date.

[coxsmn] 05/10/2018 17:11

$1.3 trillionInfrastructure spending China's "belt and road initiative" will generate in the next five yearsVicky Binns, head of commodities research at BHP, said the vast majority of the copper used in the belt and road initiative would go into power projects. The electrification of new areas under the scheme could in turn generate more demand for copper in construction and consumer devices as countries develop and their middle classes grow.  "That 7pc number may actually be a lowball figure," she told The Daily Telegraph. "Once you build all the power infrastructure suddenly there is more manufacturing and building that will follow on from that." BHP's data suggest that belt-and-road countries use just 1.35kg (3.6lb) of copper per capita, as opposed to the global average of 4kg. This suggests there is scope for demand in these areas to rise sharply."These regions have really low copper demand," said Ms Binns. "There are a lot of areas where you could see a considerable increase."

[coxsmn] 05/10/2018 13:43

Added again here today. Have a good weekend all.

[arf dysg] 05/10/2018 09:46

coxsmn (2348) "Today's Telegraph [...] driving an additional 1.6m tons of copper demand."

Does The Telegraph mean 1.6m tonnes altogether by 2023 (the timeframe used in the article) or 1.6m tonnes PER YEAR? Those are two very different things.

[coxsmn] 04/10/2018 18:59

Today's Telegraph,COMMODITIESCopper trade to surge as China's global lending fuels demandDEMAND for copper will surge over the next five years thanks to China's huge global lending programme, according to the world's biggest miner.BHP Billiton has estimated that China's "belt and road initiative" will generate spending of around $1.3 trillion (£1 trillion) on infrastructure projects by 2023, driving an additional 1.6m tons of copper demand. This is equivalent to adding another 7pc to global demand.

[waterloo01] 04/10/2018 16:00

All looks good as far as one can tell. Would have liked a bit more on the exploration at Sasa. Maybe that will come in interviews/broker notes?

[mount teide] 04/10/2018 12:57

Zinc, Lead and Copper have risen by 17%, 6% and 11% respectively from the Aug/Sept lows(the first price correction since the H1/2016 recession low).


Although copper is up circa 40% from the H1/2016 recession low, it would need to go up 79.7% from today just to get back to its inflation adjusted high of the previous commodity cycle. Likewise a price rise of 110% is needed for Zinc and 108% for Lead to reach the inflation adjusted peak price of the previous market cycle.

Suggesting that metal pricing is still very much in the foothills with respect to the potential of this new market cycle and its looming copper deficit forecast for most of the next decade.

As we know from previous industrial metal cycles, equities tend to lag the price performance of the metal for the first 2-3 years before breaking out into a period of strong outperformance relative to the metal.
I suspect that after 2.5 years into this new market cycle the recovery from the correction now underway could well prove to be the catalyst the market has been waiting for to kick-start a period of industrial metal equity outperformance.


AIMHO/DYOR

[matt123d] 04/10/2018 12:17

No chance of a 400p bid with price down here. Price into resistance now so it's decision time, could just be another lower high here and it rolls back down.

[bogdan branislov] 04/10/2018 12:11

I hold CAML on fundamentals, technical analysis has no part in my decision. Having said that, there is now compelling evidence that the trend has changed. While I am happy to and expect to sit tight for 2 to 3 years here, or possibly longer as the copper supply shortfall does its work, I will be relieved when the price gets back towards the top of the current trading range. Not because currently sitting on a small loss bothers me, it does not, but because I fear that CAML remains vulnerable to a low ball bid of around £4 per share while the price remains at current levels. Whilst a c£4 takeout would be a profitable outcome it is a small fraction of the gains we should see over the coming year or two as the market gradually comes to its senses.

[arf dysg] 04/10/2018 10:52

novicetrade68, as others have said, you could buy on Wednesday afternoon to get the dividend. The shares bought on Thursday are ex-dividend, and I guess it takes until Friday evening for the information to work its way through the system so that the company registrar knows who holds shares and therefore receives the dividend.

I also notice that, despite the shares today being ex of 6.5p dividend, they didn't bat an eyelid and carried on going up. Whoopee!

[king suarez] 04/10/2018 10:42

Ok, thanks for that info catsick - geography not my strongest subject. I do like cats though :)

[catsick] 04/10/2018 10:37

No its a loooong way from one to the other, its a massive country and trucking costs of 10c per km would eat the value of the ore in no distance, they will set up a new plant if warranted which I am sure is the plan for then next 3-5 years

[king suarez] 04/10/2018 09:33

Very pleasing results.

If exploration at Shuak is successful, would it be possible to process some of that ore at the current Kounrad plant, or would separate facilities need to be built?

[mount teide] 04/10/2018 08:42

Kounrad - Excellent Q3 performance - a replication of the Q4/2017 production performance in Q4/2018 would deliver an annual production figure at the top end of the guidance range - 13,920 tonnes.

SASA - combined Lead and Zinc production performance to date in 2018 is ahead of 2017, with the higher value Zinc production 525 tonnes ahead of 2017.

[novicetrade68] 04/10/2018 08:17

Q3 copper production would almost be 16k on an annualised basis, well above target.

[podgyted] 04/10/2018 07:59

That seems to mean that they now hold over 1,000MT of copper in stock - I presume they consider the price will rise in Q4.

[masurenguy] 04/10/2018 07:47

Q3 Trading Update: Nigel Robinson, Chief Executive Officer, commented:"We have experienced a good quarter at both of our operations, with copper cathode output at Kounrad up by 2.5% when compared to Q3 2017, and improved zinc recoveries at Sasa. Our production figures confirm that we are on track to achieve 2018 guidance for all three of our metal products."

[cflather2000] 04/10/2018 07:36

Wonder when we should expect the drilling results from Shuak

[eeza] 04/10/2018 07:07

Q3 Ops update

[mount teide] 04/10/2018 01:47

Copper demand to surge thanks to China’s global ambitions, BHP says - Telegraph



Demand for copper will surge over the next five years thanks to China’s huge global lending programme, according to the world’s biggest miner.

BHP Billiton has estimated that China’s "belt and road initiative" will generate spending of around $1.3 trillion on infrastructure projects by 2023, driving an additional 1.6m tonnes of copper demand. This is equivalent to adding another 7pc to global demand.

President Xi Jinping launched the the belt and road initiative in 2013 to further China’s global influence by lending money to developing nations to help them build power lines, roads, rails and pipelines. The scheme has expanded far beyond its original vision of a new “silk road” across Central Asia and now incorporates 115 countries including nations in South America and South East Asia.

FTSE 100 miner BHP has identified copper, alongside oil, as one of its priority areas. The red metal is prized for its conductive properties.

Vicky Binns, head of commodities research at BHP, said the vast majority of the copper used in the belt and road initiative would go into power projects. The electrification of new areas under the scheme could in turn generate more demand for copper in construction and consumer devices as countries develop and their middle classes grow.

“That 7pc number may actually be a lowball figure,” she told The Telegraph. “Once you build all the power infrastructure suddenly there is more manufacturing and building that will follow on from that.”

BHP’s data suggest that belt-and-road countries use just 1.35kg of copper per capita, as opposed to the global average of 4kg. This suggests there is scope for demand in these areas to rise sharply.

“These regions have really low copper demand,” said Ms Binns. “There a lot of areas where you could see a considerable increase.”

BHP is considering options to expand its large copper mines in Chile and Australia as it looks to counter the falling quality, or grades, at its operations.

The Anglo-Australian company also stands to gain from China’s ambitious scheme as most countries in the belt and road initiative lack the ability to mine or refine copper, meaning that an increase in global copper trade is likely......'

[novicetrade68] 03/10/2018 22:29

Thank you for that eeza, given the registration date on the 5th I thought for a moment one could buy this at a 'discount' tomorrow AND collect the dividend, how nice that would have been ;-)

[eeza] 03/10/2018 19:44

XD date is tomorrow Thurs 4 Oct. Registration is always 1 day afterwards - 5 Oct. The 1 day delay is obviously to determine who is eligible for the dividend.
XD dates are almost always Thursdays.

For clarification:
You need to be holding the shares at COB on Wed 3 Oct to qualify for the Div. The shares will open XD at 0800 tomorrow, and should (Lol !! ) open 6.5p lower than the close tonight, approx 236p.

[king suarez] 03/10/2018 18:01

Interesting article on zinc:

hxxps://agmetalminer.com/2018/10/01/zinc-on-the-brink-of-new-beginnings/

[scottishfield] 03/10/2018 16:57

Yes, I think so.
And from the RNS ''This will be payable on 26 October 2018 to shareholders registered on 5 October 2018.''