Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[bogdan branislov] 03/7/2018 09:39

My biggest concern here relates to what MT recently said. Yes, the sector has been hit by trade wrangling, but considering the value on offer at CAML itself, the pullback in CAMl's share price is particularly irrational. I don't mind price pullbacks when the fundamentals remain intact, I remember sitting through a 30% pullback in Barratt around late 2010, sitting it out was the right thing to do then, it the right thing to do now. But I do suspect that the market softness may have been used to pull the price down in preparation for a bid. Even a 50% mark up on the current price would only take us a little over recent highs. Suppose a bid came in at around £3.60, this would be a bad price to cash out at given the forward potential. How would institutional holders react to a £3.60 bid? Any views? Bogdan

[garycook] 03/7/2018 07:56

03 Jul Central Asia Metals PLC Peel Hunt Buy 365.00

[coxsmn] 02/7/2018 20:29

Myst, certainly does look good.

[mysteronz] 02/7/2018 20:00

The dividend yield is looking tasty at these prices - one positive :)

[shieldbug] 02/7/2018 16:35

Lead price is where it was two weeks ago. Zinc has ticked up in the last week. Copper fall has slowed.

Share price dropped 3.5% today.

[mount teide] 02/7/2018 12:38

shield - looking forward to the Update - as all available information in the public domain together with average H1/2018 metal price data suggests a strong H1/2018 performance.


Dividend was paid 25th May - next one is due late October.

[shieldbug] 02/7/2018 11:36

MT - Operations and Production update will certainly help to clarify what is going on.

Really we need to get to end of year (a long way off) so that the financials for the company reflect the acquisition of Sasa. The further into the year we get the better.

I believe that dividends are paid this week - perhaps some of that will add to some buying.

[mount teide] 02/7/2018 11:15

As Harry Markopolis said "never underestimate the greed of Wall Street(City)"

Do not discount that the share price action over the last few months at low cost operator CAML could well be a potential acquirer and their friends in the city attempting to influence downwards the price of any offer they may make, by taking advantage of the recent share price weakness of the much higher leveraged operators in the sector from a softening copper price.

Being burnt by similar venal tactics before definitely sharpens the senses to potential repeat occurrences of such behaviour.


We can probably expect an Operations and Production Update for the six months to 30 June 2017 this week - last year CAML released it on the first Wednesday of July.

[coxsmn] 30/6/2018 12:08

Zebbi, we have a high dividend and lots of growth here so i'm not convinced we would want to be bought. If we were then it would have to be at a large premium to the current sp, still i'm not convinced.

[bluerunner] 29/6/2018 00:05

IC tips of the week included Antofagasta.The essence of the investment case was on taking the long-term view that copper demand is growing and can only be met by sustained investment.Reference made to projected 2018 deficit of 400000 tonnes.The piece is entitled, Antofagasta: buy the drop.Same applies here?!(I won't paste the article for copyright reasons).

[cflather2000] 28/6/2018 21:38

Thank you MT. I'll have to look into them properly!

[garycook] 28/6/2018 11:33

UKG,Need to buy some CAML to go with your CEY.Both very good value atm

[ukgeorge] 28/6/2018 11:26

Hello,

I don't hold here. But did watch them present at a mining journal event yesterday. Extremely impressive especially the dividend payments that have been made.

[mount teide] 27/6/2018 00:40

cf2000- for equity market success, there is no substitute for ongoing in-depth research prior to and throughout the life of any investment.

Asia Met has two major projects - KSK containing the high grade BKM Copper Project, for which a BFS is expected in the next month - it is a low cost 25,000t a year heap leach project with some astonishing grades - up to 25% near surface copper in recent assays in the area for the proposed starter pit. Management are planning for first Production in 2020.

Latest drilling results suggests the nearby BKZ copper mineralisation (800m away) is linked to BKM - the area in between is to undergo aggressive follow-up exploration since it also contains a new high-priority target - a very large magnetic feature at depth thought to represent an untested porphyry intrusion. In addition there are eight other high priority district targets some of which have produced spectacular grades on initial drilling.

And Beutong - a world class, high-quality copper, gold, silver, molybdenum deposit outcropping at surface and remaining open laterally and at depth. Resources contain 2.4Mt copper, 2.1Moz gold and 20.6Moz silver. This large porphyry system is currently under further exploration drilling to expand the resource base. Latest drill on the prospect returned 456.0m at 1.06% CuEq (0.93% Cu, 0.15g/t Au) from 10.0m - Better by some margin than anything in the "GLOBAL TOP 10 COPPER DRILL INTERSECTIONS PUBLISHED IN Q1, 2018"
The hole TERMINATED at 607m due to reaching capacity of the drill rig - it REMAINED in mineralisation with the end of the hole averaging 1.14% copper. Sequential assays for the initial 456m interval confirm potential for a significant proportion of leachable copper - suggesting the prospect of a near term, low cost heap leach starter operation.

AIMHO/DYOR

[cflather2000] 26/6/2018 22:27

Why ARS? I've read a bit but they have so many projects I find it confusing. I know some of their resources have great copper concentration.Good points on the price's relation to supply, but the LOM for CAML's copper assets isn't that long, right? Like 10 years or something, can't quite remember. If ARS can get production going over the next few years, they may be the beneficiaries over CAML

[arf dysg] 26/6/2018 17:03

There was a placing in early February at 275p. For those who want cheaper shares, they're available right now.

[mount teide] 26/6/2018 12:29

Copper price - after averaging some 20% higher in H1/2018 over H1/2017, the valuations of much of the producing sector are back to where they were at the end of H1/2017 when Copper was averaging $2.60(which was hardly expensive in many cases).

In the case of leveraged play Kaz Minerals it has taken a near 25% decline this month to achieve that.

Is the market anticipating a return of the copper price to that level in the short term or has it created a buying opportunity for that increasingly rare breed within the equity investment community - those with an investment outlook longer than the life cycle of a mayfly?

If the spot copper price does return to the $2.60 level - which is hugely below the minimum threshold to trigger significant capital investment in new production(estimated at $3.25-$3.50), then the copper deficit forecast for much of the next 5 years will likely not only increase but be extended.

Driven by the fear of a trade war(overdone imo), i strongly suspect that what we are currently seeing is the copper market signalling another buying opportunity for long term investors during this latest recovery phase of the commodity cycle.

I remain a buyer here and at ARS and, have started drip feeding investment into leveraged copper play Kaz Minerals which has sharply fallen back to its end of H1/2017 valuation from recent half decade highs in barely a month.


AIMHO/DYOR

[mount teide] 26/6/2018 10:00

Braemar Shipping - a specialist global Shipping and Ports service provider to the commodity transportation sector, reported in its Friday AGM Trading Update that: "Strong commodity demand continues to drive the dry bulk market" and that its "Port Agency business has had a strong first quarter".


'BRAEMAR SHIPPING SERVICES PLC - AGM Trading Update

The Group's overall trading performance during the first quarter of 2018/19 has been in line with the Board's expectations.

Shipbroking - The shipping markets are largely unchanged since the preliminary results announcement in May. Strong commodities demand continues to drive the dry bulk market....

Braemar's port agency business has had a strong first quarter.....

Outlook - The Board's expectation for the year remains unchanged and the Group as a whole is trading in line with market expectations.'

[coxsmn] 25/6/2018 20:25

Gary, agreed. Sp has been sold down at the moment and with no change in the underlying fundamentals (very low cost producer, great management, great assets) the upside and the already very generous dividend yield has got even better. I need to check the sums but i think we could be on track for a FY2018 yield of around 8% at the current share price Furthermore the last set of results only included a couple of months earnings for the latest acquisition. I'm sitting tight here for the next leg up once this selling season is over.

[cflather2000] 25/6/2018 18:56

Yeah, shareholder interest is one thing you can't fault them on. It's the one thing I think griffin have to prove

[garycook] 25/6/2018 15:00

Bogdan, Saw your 7,776 share purchase at 14.42 at 2.57p.Fair play

[shieldbug] 25/6/2018 14:55

Value is out of fashion. Maybe the money is off chasing something else. I bought CAML recently after the price dipped following ex dividend as the price seemed to have fallen too far. I thought that mining investments were perhaps rushing into aluminium which was rising in price.

Anyway momentum works in both directions.

I cannot see anything too risky or newly risky about Traxys, Kazakhstan or Macedonia. The metals pricing has fallen a bit and a major trade war would damage prices further but to this extent?

The company seem very good and have shareholders interests in mind.

The company is planning to start paying down the debt from the acquisition of Sasa. So I don't see debt being a problem.

Perhaps the price continuing to fall is a just a lack of investors looking closely enough at the company to see the forward PE. Perhaps mining just seems too risky at the moment.

[bluerunner] 25/6/2018 14:50

I am also waiting to free-up additional funds here (transferring out of a funds-only ISA to a new stocks and shares one). Great opportunity.Those looking at the price every day or so might want to consider the 3-5 year outlook here with respect to copper / zinc.Recent weakness does not appear to be stock specific.