Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[scgoliath] 15/6/2018 15:22

But why is it happening?

[mysteronz] 15/6/2018 15:19

Nice top up - thanks Mr Market. Good divi :)

[petenorrislos] 15/6/2018 15:06

What a shocker

[bluerunner] 15/6/2018 09:45

Good point, Bogdan. H1 2018 should be available in the latter half of September.The current share price weakness is something I am regarding as an unexpected opportunity prior to that.This is pertinent given that previous results were adversely affected by an unusually cold spell of weather (-28C) even for that region.Fundamentals, dividend, sector outlook all look strong for CAML.

[edjge2] 15/6/2018 07:55

Nice divi at these prices so chart gives adder price imo.

[ntv] 14/6/2018 12:49

yield is good so i have a little punt
maintained dividend at 16.5p is approx 6% so happy with that for the next few years
imho is best to have off the debt as quickly as possible but that is down to management etc

[bogdan branislov] 14/6/2018 12:02

Important point, a large reverse takeover can disguise the valuation metrics somewhat until the full year results work through. The forward PE is, I understand, likely to be well down into single figures and the net debt position will be reduced significantly within the first year. The debt is being paid of more gradually, but once the agreed debt reduction is made and the dividends paid, there will be considerable surplus cash generating a much lower net debt position. The half year results will of course make the post acquisition financial position much clearer to a far wider range of potential investors.

[petenorrislos] 14/6/2018 10:06

Do we have an expectation on full year profits for 2018 inclusive of SASA?

It would now only take 13 years (at 2017 profits) to cover the market cap, and thats based on a profit we know to be significantly below 2018 FY.

If that goes to 7/8 years (as it should), surely this becomes a slam dunk case for a buy out?

[bogdan branislov] 14/6/2018 09:56

Blue. Yes the price is remarkable given the margins, cash generation, forward PE, copper outlook etc. Hard to know when the break out will occur, or even climbing the current range. Same old story probably, we stay in the range until longer term buyers can no longer pick up cheap shares from impatient smaller investors who cannot wait the course. I, like you, am looking to add, all my divis are going into CAML. A small mining operation by its very nature does carry more risk than some of my other holdings, but CAML is a very well run company and I really think the upside potential of CAML from here is considerable. Bogdan

[bluerunner] 13/6/2018 13:39

I'm also amazed it remains at these levels.However, I added again this morning at 278p. The fundamentals, the sector outlook make this a compelling BUY.I just hope the price starts to recover soon and that CAML does not get taken out by a major this side of 400p.

[edjge2] 13/6/2018 13:16

Quite amazed it goes below 280p but sale time especially with MT post

[mount teide] 12/6/2018 19:45

Multitude Of Trends Point To Rising Copper Price Ahead - Seeking Alpha



'The Bullish Fundamental Case for Copper

The bullish fundamental case for copper is simple and powerful: The world has a voraciously growing demand for electricity and for everything that runs on electric power. And more electric power requires more electrical wiring, which is made of copper.

Analysts debate many things about global technological trends, and which metals and commodities will be in more or less demand because of them: lithium, cobalt, graphite, uranium, etc. Also up for debate are the impacts of new technology on demand for metals like silver, platinum, palladium, etc. But I see very little debate over the demand for copper wire to conduct the electricity that has, does, and will provide the power for all of this technology.

The bullish case for copper is not about what percentage of the world's autos will be electric by 2027; it is about the growing electrification of just about everything just about everywhere. The devices I use to write this article are powered by electricity conducted by copper wire. So are the devices you use to write comments, whether bullish or bearish.

The United States uses over 12,000 kilowatt hours of electrical energy per capita per year. Russia and Japan use about 7,500 kwh per capita per year; the EU about 5,500 kwh, China about 4,500 kwh, and India only about 1,200 kwh per capita per year. The global average is under 3,000 kwh per capita per year. (See the figures at this link.) The most technologically advanced industrial countries will not be reducing their electricity consumption; China, India, and the rest of the world will be enormously increasing their electricity consumption and catching up....'


Fast growing China and India each has a population more than 3.25 times the size of the US, and yet despite rapid modernisation and infrastructure growth over the last few decades, still has an electrical energy per capita just a small fraction of the US. As living standards continue to be rapidly driven up in these and many other high population SE Asian Nations such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand

[edjge2] 11/6/2018 09:35

Sure has dipped some.

[coxsmn] 10/6/2018 20:33

Ais, totally agree, i've been buying the dips for sometime.

[coxsmn] 08/6/2018 18:36

I added a small percentage too. Markets down Today but we will be back above £3 soon.

[waterloo01] 08/6/2018 18:02

$10, now that's bullish. Copper miners will be in huge demand! Odd trading here. Thought it would go through £3.00 yesterday but even with a strong copper price today it retreated. Seller obviously. I added a few.

[mount teide] 08/6/2018 17:03

Copper Market: A Tale of Two Roads & the Impact of Renewables

An interesting piece of research on the Copper Market by Goehring & Rozencwajg - in their recent Q1/2018 Natural Resource Market Commentary. (Starts on page 20)

Much of the rest of the research/commentary in the article is well worth a read too.

Déjà Vu: A History of the Electric Vehicle
Q1 2018 Natural Resource Market Overview
The “Energetics” of EVs
Oil Market Overview: Global Oil Market Continues to Tighten; $100 is Getting Closer
Our Visit to India: The Biggest Changes No One is Talking About
Copper Market: A Tale of Two Roads and the Impact of Renewables
Uranium: The Quiet Before the Storm
Precious Metals: Why We Still Favor Oil over Gold
North American Natural Gas: Supply Continues to Surge – Stay on the Sidelines Agriculture: Very Bullish Trends are Emerging





Barrons - Copper Prices Could Triple in 10 Years - 7th June 2018



' “The bull market has only started,” says Leigh Goehring, managing partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates. “Strong demand from Asian countries is what’s going to push copper prices higher, and this is before we even begin to talk about renewables and [their] impact on global copper consumption.” Renewable energy sources like wind and solar require lots of copper for their equipment.

He believes a “huge bull market,” led by extremely strong demand and emerging problems surrounding global copper supply, is likely to resume shortly and play out in “multiple stages over the next five to 10 years.”

The current bull market started after copper prices hit bottom in January 2016 at a little below $2, and it could see prices trade at $10 or more before it’s over, says Goehring.'

[mount teide] 07/6/2018 23:12

Many thanks to poster Mattjos on the JTC thread for some anecdotal evidence of the impact the fast growing electric vehicle industry is having on global supply chains for components.


'Just been quoted today for DC motor/drive units @ 9 month lead time, ex-Italy, from a very large global OEM. 6 months ago we ordered on a 5 week lead time.

The auto-industry rush into electrification is sucking up everything available in global supply chains & distorting the market for OEM’s in other sectors.

Same is true for motor controllers, motor & gear bearings, hi-tensile steel gearbox shafts.

Similarly, VRLA battery lead times have gone from 5 days lead time to 12 weeks lead time as these are used in both electric vehicles and telco base stations.

Never seen these component supply chains so stretched as just now. Prices are increasing circa 7-12% on anything related to electrification of transport devices, as the global auto industry sucks suppliers dry.'

[mount teide] 07/6/2018 14:32

Spot Copper, Lead and Zinc and 2018 average pricing to date compared to 2016 and 2017 average price.

$4,871/t - $2.21/lb - 2016 Average Price
$6,193/t - $2.81/lb - 2017 Average Price
$6,942/t - $3.14/lb - H1/2018 Average price (+11.7% above 2017 average)
$7,295/t - £3.31/lb - Current Spot Price (+17.6% above 2017 average)

Lead

$1,873/t - $0.85/lb - 2016 Average Price
$2,325/t - $1.05/lb - 2017 Average Price
$2,491/t - $1.12/lb - H1/2018 Average price (6.6% above 2017 average)
$2,534/t - $1.15/lb - Current Spot Price (9.5% above 2017 average+)

Zinc

$2,093/t - $0.95/lb - 2016 Average Price
$2,909/t - $1.32/lb - 2017 Average Price
$3,169/t - $1.45/lb - Current Spot Price (9.8% above 2017 average)
$3,372/t - $1.51/lb - H1/2018 Average price (14.3% above 2017 average)

[edjge2] 07/6/2018 14:25

Copper booted us up from stupid 280p maybe not 300p today but 350-400p beckons at this rate. Beware the EV expectation: batteries may be redesigned or replaced with an array of many instantly charged capacitors that can be placed next to the motors, IT equipment or whereever. Also dischage immediately to generate a very high current. Weight reduction increases acceleration. CPX making inroads here but will take much development.
Nice wonky W on the chart now so hope it bodes well.

[mount teide] 06/6/2018 13:37

Spot Copper continuing its strong upward June trend - now at $7,140/tonne($3.24/lb) - $0.43/lb(15.1%) above the average 2017 price.

A test of the $3.31 late December 2017 high(highest price since 2013) could be on the cards - driven by fears of industrial unrest at Escondida, the World's highest producing Copper mine - the positions of the unions and employers at Escondida look to be miles apart according to the FT.


Copper rises above $7,000 a tonne on Escondida strike fears - FT



The price of copper rose above $7,000 a tonne on Tuesday on fears the giant Escondida mine in Chile could be hit by further industrial unrest.

The main union at the BHP-operated mine fired the starting gun on the latest round of wage talks last week when they presented contract demands to management.

They are demanding a signing bonus of around $34,000 per worker, or 4 per cent of the dividends paid by Escondida to its shareholders — BHP and Rio Tinto — in 2017. That would represent the biggest one off payment ever made by a Chilean mining company, according to local media reports.

On top of that, the union has also requested a 5 per cent increase in salaries, citing among other factors the increase in copper prices.

The union represents around 2,500 workers at Escondida, which is the world’s biggest copper mine, accounting for around 5 per cent of global supply.

BHP now has 10 working days to respond to the offer, which analysts said was likely to receive a cool response.

The Anglo-Australian miner has said that it must protect the competitiveness of Escondida not just in the short term but over the next five to 10 years and the decades to come.

BHP has invested in around $8bn in the mine over the past five years to maintain annual output at more than 1m tonnes. To secure a return on that investment, BHP has said that it must raise productivity and cut costs at Escondida.

Most of the best metal has been extracted from mine, forcing BHP to mine low grade ore from two pits that are between 500 metres and 620 metres deep.

The failure to reach a deal with the union last year led to a 44-day strike that rattled the global copper market.

The union brought the dispute to end by invoking a legal provision that extended the current contract until July 2018.

If the two sides can’t reach an agreement by the end of July and a period of mandatory mediation fails to produce a deal, another strike could start in August.

In attempt to to reach a deal, BHP has said that it would provide the same health benefits to new and old workers.

[edjge2] 06/6/2018 12:08

Addered around 280p just hope 300+ is on the cards. 350p may beckon by the end of the month. Surprised 280p around for so long but suppose in consolidation, coiled spring phase.