Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[lauders] 08/8/2018 02:47

See posts 1987 & 1988 coxsmn. Old news now and already discussed. Might be worth reading all the posts after the two just mentioned?

Disappointing to see that CAML haven't managed to stay above 240p. Not worried as this is a long term hold but still around the levels I entered recently and would like to see us well above by now! It will come.

[zebbo] 07/8/2018 21:27

Shame we are not seeing a bounce in share price Guess this will come with some trade stability and a rebalance of confidence (short term). Agree with the longterm outlook for copper though

[garycook] 06/8/2018 01:40

Interesting and good read concerning undervalued Copper,Commodities stocks,and future predictions

[mount teide] 04/8/2018 11:15

Following the recent 10% to 20% pullback in oil and industrial metal pricing, oil and industrial metal stocks have only been cheaper relative to the S&P500 once in the last 50 years(1970).

The last great bull market in oil started in late 1999 and it was as late as 2003 before the market became bullish on oil stocks - nearly three years of an oil price bull market elapsed before it really began to be accepted by the equity markets and oil and industrial metal stocks took off.

Today, we are some two and a half years after the energy, industrial metals and commodity price bottom and as in 2002 many market participants are still fighting it. The psychology is likely to change when the oil market finally realises that the rate of increase in US shale oil production is not going to be enough to balance the market - likewise the huge looming copper deficit forecast for much of the next decade is now largely unavoidable due to the waterfall drop off in capital investment since 2013, and which in 2018 is still barely off the 2016 decade low.

Brent oil bottomed at $27.8 in Jan 2016, and is now around $75. Yet, most oil stocks have significantly lagged behind; despite where we are in the commodity cycle and the fact that after a half decade recession the survivors are now super lean businesses with largely fixed operating costs.

We've never had natural resource company valuations relative to the S&P 500 lower than they are today since 1970.

The only other times the stock market has got close to this relative valuation level before was in 1929 and 1999. Stock market history shows these three time periods were exceptional - once in a generation opportunities - to be natural resource investors and in all three instances, in the early following years saw oil and industrial metal stocks strongly lagging the commodity in price recovery.

As sentiment changes, relative outperformance is all but assured for many years if the sector fundamentals and past performance in these long term highly cyclical markets is a reliable guide.

What will be the trigger? Probably, it will come from the increasing realisation that oil and industrial metal market dynamics are much tighter than most market participants - for self serving(China as the worlds largest importer) or other reasons(global trade war/recession fears) - want to believe.

History has repeatedly shown that oil and industrial metal stock recovery phases post long recessions in these highly cyclical long term markets rarely respect wider global economic recessions/softening growth - often posting spectacular gains during global downturns as in 2000-2006, which saw many of the participants of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index up circa 400%, while the S&P 500 was still in correction territory some 20% down.

Currently, oil and industrial metal equity market dynamics are strongly signalling a set up today similar to 2002/3 - which heralded a long period of very strong relative outperformance to the wider equity markets during the years ahead.

Ignore the pricing power of long term, highly cyclical, recession ravaged oil and industrial metal markets at your investment return peril!


AIMHO/DYOR

[arf dysg] 03/8/2018 11:01

If I had a choice between (1) strong and stable dividends and (2) strong and stable government, I'd go for the dividends every time. I also think that "dividends for the many not the few" would be a jolly good idea.

[cshfool1] 03/8/2018 10:53

Nice to see the broker report above, many thanks, and dividend calcs in line with my own pale efforts post #1929, though I suspect 16.5p or (a little) more is more likely next time, though all please bear in mind that a cut is potentially possible for the 30-50% range, - eg at 30%, depending on the NCFOps, Capex and usual assumptions, prices, pound/dollar rate etc.

I'll try to satisfy myself that this broker view isn't just a cut and paste of the QD note (or Annual report!) provided elsewhere, as a reader of student, and published, works there are often tell-tales for the alert examiner - more on that if required later - views welcome. My own conservative and relatively uninformed guesstimate, is that about 350p is an absolute minimum value on this stock, for the approx 176m in issue, fair value being considerably higher, certainly north of £4.50, even assuming relatively flat growth from 2018.

csh

[petenorrislos] 03/8/2018 08:45

Stop losses, Shirley?

[briggs1209] 03/8/2018 08:37

Some sells this morning at 224p - that's crazy money.

[aishah] 02/8/2018 19:55

Full note here:

VSA initiates on @CamlMetals. Read @DoubleOD2's report here: or sign up to our free research portal. #metals #mining #investing

[briggs1209] 02/8/2018 18:59

Now my biggest holding bar far. Barring political risk in the operating countries and barring a messy accident they look an extremely low cost producer. At the current yield I think we could go through brexit and a recession and collect 5 to 7 % a year

[petenorrislos] 02/8/2018 15:22

KAZ getting hammered today

[carcosa] 02/8/2018 15:15

Link to an associated article to the VSA Capital note on the Proactive Investors website:

www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/vsa-capital-market-movers/29971/vsa-capital-market-movers-central-asia-metals-cashflow-is-king-29971.html

[cgequityinvest] 02/8/2018 14:07

New comprehensive (40+ pages) research note for CAML issued by VSA Capital today highlighting :

low cost of production against peers
strong cash generation/ability to pay down debt
forecast divs of 16.7p and 17.9p for 2018 and 2019
longer term positive outlook for commodity prices

and suggesting target price of £3.22

[shieldbug] 02/8/2018 10:50

Thanks for your response Bogdan. I would imagine your assessment of Trump's intention is 90% more likely than "a China halting trade war". He is a man known for acting in self-interest after all. I beleive that CAML needs to show its first full year of results with Sasa in order for investors to see the value. But you are right that Brexit could weigh on sentiment.

[bogdan branislov] 01/8/2018 21:32

Shieldbug - this is a negotiation. Trade is weighted against the US and has been for a long time, both from the EU and particularly China. Trump has made some daft decisions, such as the late cycle fiscal stimulus, which will assure an earlier and deeper recession. But these decisions are calculated to not impact until after the next presidential vote as a recession before 2020 would mean failure at the poles for Trump - although the late cycle stimulus may result in this timetable being cut very tight - expect Trump to 'go to war' with the Fed to delay some rate rises before 2020 as inflation rises. So why am I confident that a China halting trade war is not the objective here? Because the result would be a deep global recession before 2020, which would mean no second term for Trump. But do expect Trump to crank up the pressure on China over the next few months as he looks to create a 'result' before the November mid terms. With Brexit coming to a head, little direct impact on CAML but Brexit does affect the sentiment for UK listed stocks, the next few months will be demanding for investors, lots of volatility. Important to sit tight and stay invested, albeit in the right stocks, as there will be no easy to pick bottom of the market, there never is except with hindsight, even the recovery will be highly volatile.

[podgyted] 01/8/2018 19:50

Looks like copper went back to its recent low today - along with zinc and lead.

[shieldbug] 01/8/2018 09:10

It is starting to look as though the real question that we need to address is - is Trump trying to win a few concessions from the Chinese or is this the start of a protracted attempt to prevent the Chinese economy catching up and overtaking the US economy. The latter could wreck world trade and make projections of demand for non-ferrous metals very uncertain. "Trump administration will propose raising to 25 percent its planned 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports."

[garycook] 01/8/2018 07:58

01 Aug Central Asia Metals PLC Peel Hunt Buy 350.00 - Reiterates

[lord gnome] 31/7/2018 16:53

Hoping - but with no evidence to support it - that the bottom is in for this cycle.

[scottishfield] 31/7/2018 16:23

Looking better, adding.

[losses] 30/7/2018 04:51

Private equity fund Appian to raise £1bn to snap up mining assetshttps://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/private-equity-fund-appian-raise-180000567.html