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CAML Central Asia Metals Plc

197.60
2.80 (1.44%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Central Asia Metals Plc LSE:CAML London Ordinary Share GB00B67KBV28 ORD USD0.01
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  2.80 1.44% 197.60 199.00 200.00 200.50 190.00 190.00 561,237 16:35:25
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Copper Ores 220.86M 33.81M 0.1859 10.70 361.99M
Central Asia Metals Plc is listed in the Copper Ores sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker CAML. The last closing price for Central Asia Metals was 194.80p. Over the last year, Central Asia Metals shares have traded in a share price range of 151.20p to 252.50p.

Central Asia Metals currently has 181,904,941 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Central Asia Metals is £361.99 million. Central Asia Metals has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 10.70.

Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

Showing 1726 to 1749 of 5950 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
30/5/2018
09:48
Rhubarb... key holding over past decade, baggers or more, were: Senior(2009-10), Petrofac(2009-10), Barratt(2010-13), Dart Group(2013-14), Kentz(2013-14), Inland(2014-16), Ithaca(2016-17). Lots of other smaller gains, and some losses of course, the largest was Petrofac last year, c-50%.
bogdan branislov
30/5/2018
09:37
Rhubarb.... CSP, MGNS, CAML and UAI
bogdan branislov
30/5/2018
09:24
cflather2000, Vedanta is not just a smelter - Vedanta is a miner which happens to have (as part of its operations) a copper smelter. If the smelter is shut down, that prevents any output of copper.
arf dysg
30/5/2018
06:35
Peel Hunt upgrades to Buy and 365p target
mr.oz
29/5/2018
21:47
c2000 - the shortfall in supply as a result of the smelter closure effectively means India goes from a net exporter of Copper to an importer - which should be positive for copper pricing since the global market is currently already in or very close to deficit.
mount teide
29/5/2018
20:58
Is this good for caml? I thought mine producers paid smelters to smelt their ore. Does this mean caml will pay more to smelters? Sorry if it's a stupid question. I'm not really sure how this works
cflather2000
29/5/2018
17:48
Copper supply shock hits India as Vedanta's plant ordered to close



'India faces a copper supply shock after a state government ordered Vedanta Ltd to shut down a copper plant permanently following deadly protests in a move that will slash nationwide output and stoke demand for imports.

The Tamil Nadu government directed the southern state’s pollution control board to seal the 400,000 metric-ton-per-year smelter in Tuticorin in the interests of the people, it said on Monday. About 13 people died at the site last week after police opened fire as locals protested against alleged pollution.

The order to shut the smelter will reduce India’s production by about half, spurring imports as industrialization and increased consumption of cars and appliances fan demand.

“If the closure is permanent, then what we expected to happen two years down the line will happen with immediate effect,” said Jayanta Roy, senior vice president at ICRA Ltd. In April, the local arm of Moody’s Investors Service had pegged India to flip to becoming a net importer of copper by the next fiscal year.

India’s annual copper consumption is expected to almost triple to 2 million tons in the next decade, according to a projection from Hindalco Industries. Vedanta produced about 48% of the country’s total copper output of 842,961 tons in 2017-18, according to government data.

“So far our capacities were large enough for our total requirement, so we were a net exporter,” said Roy at ICRA Ltd. “Now, with no new capacities coming in and if almost 40% goes out on top of that, we will be in a deficit.” '

mount teide
29/5/2018
13:14
Bogdan branislov, Although off topic I,and no doubt others, would be interested to know the other selections to which you have alluded, obviously very successfully.
rhubarbcrumble
29/5/2018
13:14
Bogdan branislov, Although off topic I,and no doubt others, would be interested to know the other selections to which you have alluded, obviously very successfully.
rhubarbcrumble
28/5/2018
22:17
Re the share price volatility. I am pre-retirement age and investing is pretty well my entire income now, over 30% average annual compounding returns in a SIPP over 9 years, one more doubling of my holdings from here takes me to 25 times starting capital without any SIPP additions within a decade if I can do it within the next year, probably not achievable from here so I will have to settle for 25 times gains over 11 to 12 years sadly. Very concentrated portfolio currently just 4 stocks within a 7 figure fully invested portfolio, of which CAML is one, therefore a company whose quality and valuation I have a very clear conviction on. I have said it before and it say it again, nothing is achieved by watching short term price moves and getting frustrated. The quality of CAML is clear and the valuation case compelling. The stock became very over bought on weekly indicators following the recent run up. This simply means that some will take profits and others will not buy in, fearing a bigger pull back, until we have months of sideways movement which we have now had. Why do investors do this when the valuation case is so clear? No idea, but that is what they do. It is actually a good thing, a continuous run will create much greater volatility down the line with much bigger pull backs and periodic panic selling, putting off institutional buyers. So a few months of steady gains followed by a few months of sideways range is how we will see the major gains over a couple of years. Only now is the primary weekly over bought indicator for CAML really pulling back, the next phase up could be imminent, it could take until the end of the summer. Does this bother you? Is it too long for you to wait? really? Do not look at daily charts, look at weekly or monthly charts and not too often. You will then see that actually all is well here technically, if that really matters, which it does not, the valuation remains among the best in the market, that is what matters, patience now, patience.
bogdan branislov
25/5/2018
21:34
I added here Today, i'm gradually and happily increasing my holdings. Caml ticks all the boxes for me and i remain very confident it will continue to outperform the market over the next few years.
coxsmn
25/5/2018
19:16
Thanks Mount Teide. That might well explain the r cent share price weakness.
kenmitch
25/5/2018
18:16
Lots of theories on here, yet I don't think anyone has a single clue what's going on. We seem to spend 3-4 days building the SP, to see it crash down at the end of the week. Most frustrating!
petenorrislos
25/5/2018
12:22
That downward spike in the price at about 11:45 looks like the MMs trying to trigger stop losses. Maybe they hope some shareholders have been a bit inattentive.
arf dysg
25/5/2018
11:53
Spoke to the company today regarding the recent share-price weakness - they are not aware of any specific reason.

However, they did mention that since early May Orion has been outside the 6 month lock-in period for their $50m shareholding taken as part of the SASA deal, and it could be the market speculating that Orion may want to dispose of some of their holding at/around a similar price(275p) recently secured by Director Rakishev when he placed his remaining shareholding with the market.

mount teide
25/5/2018
11:28
At over 80% of the way through H1/2018 it is encouraging to note that Quoted Data's forecast for 2018 EBITDA of $138m and EPS of 51.8 cents/37.5p continues to look conservative, as a result of Copper, Lead and Zinc 2018 pricing averaging 11.7%, 7.7% and 2.1% respectively above that assumed in Quoted Data's model.


Copper
Averaging $3.14/lb to date in H1/2018 - 42.1% above 2016 average, 11.7% above 2017 average and 20.3% above H1/2017 average.

Lead
Averaging $1.12/lb to date in H1/2018 - 31.7% above 2016 average, 6.6% above 2017 average and 10.8% above H1/2017 average.

Zinc
Averaging $1.52/lb to date in H1/2018 - 60.1% above 2016 average, 15.1% above 2017 average and 25.6% above H1/2017 average.

Data Source: Kitco

SASA mine acquisition - $403m price paid was based largely on the 2016 accounts - pricing of Zinc and Lead hit decade lows in 2016 of $0.66/lb and $0.72/lb respectively. Currently average H1/2018 pricing is 130% and 56% respectively above the 2016 lows.


Comparison of Quoted Data's model using their assumed metal pricing compared to actual metal pricing averaged to date in 2018:

Quoted Data forecast EBITDA increasing by 94.3% in 2018 to $138m(EBITDA margin of 66%) as the full year impact of the SASA mine production kicks in.

However, if H1/2018 average pricing is maintained through 2018, Quoted Data's model would generate circa $16.24m additional revenue/profit - broken down as:

Copp +$9.56m - model assumes $2.81/lb - H1/2018 average price $3.14/lb
Lead +$5.20m - model assumes $1.04/lb - H1/2018 average price $1.12/lb
Zinc +$1.48m - model assumes $1.49/lb - H1/2018 average price $1.52/lb

In addition the QD model conservatively assumes 13,150 tonnes of Copper production in 2018. CAML management has forecast 13,000t to 14,000t for 2018. A 13,500t mid range performance would generate an additional $2.4m of EBITDA, while a top end 14,000t performance would see an additional $5.9m.

Consequently, at 2018 average metal pricing to date, QD's model with a 13,500t performance from Kounrad in 2018, would generate EBITDA of $156.2m, while a similar Kounrad performance to 2017 of circa 14,000 tonnes would result in EBITDA of $160.1m(up 139% compared to 2017 actual)

EBITDA of circa $160.1m would put EPS up from QD's 2018 forecast of 51.8c(37.5p) to circa 60.2c(43.0p) giving a forward PER of 6.48.


Comparison of QD's Metal Pricing Model Forecast for 2018 compared to 2016 and 2017 Actual Average Pricing, H1/2018 Actual average to date, and last Commodity Cycle high and low.

Copper
$4,363/t - $1.98/lb - 2016 Commodity Cycle Low

$4,871/t - $2.21/lb - 2016 Average Price
$6,193/t - $2.81/lb - 2017 Average Price
$6,193/t - $2.81/lb - QD CAML Model Forecast for 2018
$6,942/t - $3.14/lb - H1/2018 Average price (+11.7% above QD model)

$9,962/t - $4.50/lb - Peak price of last commodity cycle(2010)


Lead
$1,586/t - $0.72/lb - 2016 Commodity Cycle low

$1,873/t - $0.85/lb - 2016 Average Price
$2,292/t - $1.04/lb - QD CAML Model Forecast for 2018
$2,325/t - $1.05/lb - 2017 Average Price
$2,491/t - $1.12/lb - H1/2018 Average price (+7.7% above QD model)

$3,898/t - $1.81/lb - Peak Price of last commodity cycle(2007)


Zinc
$1,454/t - $0.66/lb - 2016 Commodity Cycle Low

$2,093/t - $0.95/lb - 2016 Average Price
$2,909/t - $1.32/lb - 2017 Average Price
$3,283/t - $1.49/lb - QD CAML Model Forecast for 2018
$3,372/t - $1.52/lb - H1/2018 Average price (+2.1% above QD Model)

$4,518/t - $2.05/lb - Peak price of last commodity cycle(2007)

mount teide
25/5/2018
10:51
Doubled my holding today.The market is a voting machine, and I just voted with my hard earned £££ that this company is undervalued.
morph7
25/5/2018
09:42
thevaluehunter (25 May '18 - 00:45 - 1710 of 1714)

"Well the dividend's being paid tomorrow"

On a minor point of detail, it appears that you wrote that just after midnight, so the dividend should appear today. That might just pay for lunch today, hooray!

arf dysg
25/5/2018
06:58
Sorry P you are right. Refs are still showing 6% which must be out of date.Morningstar have 0.
rogash
25/5/2018
06:31
He completely sold out didn't he? That happened in March/April, or perhaps earlier, I think?
petenorrislos
25/5/2018
06:16
Perhaps Rakishev is reducing his holding, which is expected.
rogash
24/5/2018
23:55
m9999 - i agree, the market can be a fickle mistress!

From observing L2 over the last month, there has been a determined effort by the market to keep the share price rangebound at 280p - 300p. Why?

Who knows? Considering the low forecast P/E and huge amount of cash being generated, i very much hope it is not because a low ball offer for the company at say around £3.60 a share(circa 30% premium) may be in the pipeline.

mount teide
24/5/2018
23:45
Well the dividend's being paid tomorrow so that's one thing at least. Copper, lead and zinc all close to 5 year highs and by my reckoning they are on for c+$150m ebitda this year so I can't understand what's not to like. Also the dollar is strengthening vs sterling which should help the share price.
thevaluehunter
24/5/2018
22:27
maybe MT - but CAML did not participate during the recent FTSE rise to new highs. interestingly the share price does not also seem to correlate to rises and falls in the copper price
melody9999
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