Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[zebbo] 29/7/2018 21:58

Copper prices recover; more upside expected

hxxp://mydigitalfc.com/fc-supplements/invest/copper-prices-recover-more-upside-expected

[coxsmn] 27/7/2018 18:48

here is a good place for the next decade.

[scottishfield] 27/7/2018 17:54

Stayed up today, good!

[losses] 27/7/2018 11:44

I have had my ride on the Kaz train... 70p to 900..Bailed a bit earlier and missed the 1000+ though

[edjge2] 27/7/2018 11:32

Healthy co no reason not to at least maintain divi and price could double with metals increase IMO. Looks a better bet than KAZ. LOsses a good choice IMO but may have to wait a bit. KAZ likely to turn faster to 900p

[losses] 27/7/2018 10:28

Added today.. sounds like a fantastic divi stock

[lauders] 27/7/2018 04:45

Nothing we haven't heard already:



Should be an interesting few years here and at ARS. Happy to hold both like others here. Will let someone share this on the ARS BB if they wish.

[mount teide] 25/7/2018 21:35

BHP Billiton, the world’s biggest miner, presented its final wage offer to workers as its giant Escondida copper mine in Chile today.

The Anglo-Australian group offered miners a signing on bonus of US$27,000, up from an earlier offer of $23,000, plus a 1.5% salary raise.

This falls considerably short of the $43,000 bonus and and 5% wage increase demanded by the union for an estimated 2,500 workers at Escondida.

The union now has five days to ballot its members who will either approve or reject the offer. If they opt for the latter, this will trigger five days of government mandated mediation than can be extended by another five days.

If there is still no agreement the union can call strike action.

Last year, failure to reach a deal lead to a 44-day strike at the mine that severely rattled the global market.

[briggs1209] 25/7/2018 21:26

thanks for the link Launders, good interviews from an obvious heavyweight. He seemed happy with the CSR views taken by CAML which should balance some of the geopolitical uncertainties of the countries CAML is operating in.

[mount teide] 25/7/2018 21:10

Copper looking strong into the US close - $2.86 / +6.7% since last Thursday.

[lauders] 25/7/2018 13:53

Thank you kindly MT and scottishfield.

Some may be interested in these comments from Tom Albanese the former CEO of Rio Tinto and Vedanta:

Retirement: "My wife doesn't believe me."
Hot commodities: "Gold, copper and cobalt."
Nevada and the US: "The risks are so diminished compared to some of the other
places I've worked in over my career, that it's almost lik a resource
nationalism holiday."
Standout companies/projects covered at MJ Select London: "Metals X/Nifty;
Trilogy Metals/Arctic-Bornite; Fortune Minerals/NICO; Central Asia
Metals/Kounrad."
Standout leaders in mining: "I'm not a sporting fan but when I hear anyone talk
about great sporting teams they usually don't talk about individual players,
they talk about the team and its collective capabilities, but more importantly
is that team working together [and] are they cohesive."
Where are we in the cycle? "I think we're seeing that volatile set of cycles …
still within a secular [upward] trend."
Outlook: "I think we are all going to be navigating within more turbulent
waters."
Trump: "It is clear that the [US] government policy towards the mining sector is
the best we've seen in 40 or 50 years."

[scottishfield] 25/7/2018 13:03

Yes well done Lauders.

[mount teide] 25/7/2018 12:57

Lauders - well done you may well have caught the bottom !

Shield - many of the stock figures reported by Chinese warehouses are fictitious - an audit of one by a large cargo insurer failed to find any of the large stockholding his company had been supposedly insuring!

The management of the warehouse claimed "it must of been stolen" despite having no paper work to prove it had ever arrived into the warehouse in the first place!

[lauders] 25/7/2018 12:38

Mount Teide 24 Jul '18 - 11:07 - 1949 of 1964 0   1  0

Lauders - best of luck - hope you got what you wanted!

I am now a CAML shareholder and managed to buy at 2.3104 + costs. So, now I can just close the draw and enjoy the income from the nice yield. Hope to be able to look back and say it was a damn good buy!

Good luck fellow shareholders :-)

[shieldbug] 25/7/2018 11:39

MT Very clearly illustrated in the warehouse inventory chart and a correlation to changes in price - but not perhaps on the overall shifting of the price in an upwards direction over that two year period. What level of coordination would be needed to manipulate inventory levels? Is it possible this a naturally occurring and self perpetuating harmonic effect perhaps driven by some other local influence. There are for example 6 peaks between Oct16 and Oct 17 - fairly evenly spaced - so at 4 month intervals. Is there something going on locally that drives down inventories for tax/reporting/shipping purposes? Something is clearly happening there. It does seem to have been somewhat disrupted since Dec 16.

[mount teide] 25/7/2018 10:11

shield - the Chinese have made a number of attempts over the past two years to hit LME and Chinese copper warehouses with large stock 'increases', the sole purpose of which is to push prices down while increasing their imports - each attempt had only a very short term effect before normal market dynamics resumed driven by the fundamentals.

LME Copper warehouse stock levels like Chinese warehouse stock inventory shows a large number of near doubling builds of inventory which quickly declined over a few months to return LME inventory back to the circa 5 year low 150,000 - 200,000 tonne base level of the last two years

The 5 Year LME Warehouse Stock Level Chart towards the bottom of the link below shows this well:

[scottishfield] 25/7/2018 09:41

Added a few more around here..

[shieldbug] 25/7/2018 09:26

Is manipulation of commodity pricing through inventory manipulation only a temporary effect? Hopefully the fundamentals of supply and demand for industrial metals will dictate price in the medium to long term.

[mount teide] 25/7/2018 08:06

Baltic Dry Index hit a 5 year high yesterday - it has risen 87% since setting another post commodity market recession higher low in April.

The strong 2018 performance to date has been generated by Chinese industrial metal imports surging to monthly tonnage levels not seen since the height of the commodity super boom era in 2002. (As the World's largest consumer, there is nothing the Chinese like more than cheaper commodity pricing, particularly when they have been instrumental in helping to deliver it through stock inventory manipulation!)

The good news is while the BDI is up 509% from the cyclical recession low it would still need to rise another 576% before it matched the last cyclical peak in 2008. Likewise, Copper would need to rise another 62% before reaching it's last inflation unadjusted cyclical high in 2010.

[cflather2000] 24/7/2018 23:35

Going to correct myself here. I have no idea which will be more significant!

[cflather2000] 24/7/2018 21:32

The trade war matters far less than the stimulus package. Demand for base metals depends on growth, and especially Chinese growth.

[mount teide] 24/7/2018 21:21

US - China Trade War - China blinks first by announcing plan to stimulate economic growth.

Markets Bounce Back On China Stimulus Plans - Market Insider today

European markets ended Tuesday's session solidly in positive territory, bouncing back from the weak performance at the start of the trading week. Bank and mining stocks lead the way higher after China revealed plans to stimulate economic growth.

China's government plans to adopt both fiscal and financial measures to underpin domestic demand as worsening trade relations with its major trading partner, the US, limited the impetus to growth from exports.

The State Council meeting, chaired by Premier Li Keqiang late Monday, decided to take more "proactive" fiscal steps to help the economy grow in a reasonable pace amid external uncertainties, but to avoid a strong stimulus.

Proactive fiscal measures will cover deeper tax cuts, additional deductions to companies on research and development expenditure and issuing special bonds to local government to fund infrastructure projects.

[gary1966] 24/7/2018 15:54

Make that $2.85 MT

[edjge2] 24/7/2018 13:52

All happens too quickly today