Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[coxsmn] 08/5/2018 20:02

Today,Goldman Sachs tells investors to bet on commodities like oil and copper over the next few months, as equities try to rally from the year's flatline trend.

[mr.oz] 08/5/2018 15:08

Not sure if I'll be around for that event, getting close to selling.
Unless it's to buy back in
Depends if this disconnects from any recovery in short term copper

[andyj] 08/5/2018 13:46

Beginning to threaten a return to 250, which would increase the yield beyond 6%.

[rogash] 08/5/2018 11:55

now on a forward pe of about 5.

[edjge2] 08/5/2018 08:30

Still holding down expect a bounce as seems undervalued.

[mount teide] 04/5/2018 08:40

Euroclear's latest Stock on Loan Report published today shows the closing out of the short position accelerated in April at its fastest rate since the peak short position was reached in January - with a drop of 640,000 shares in April, taking the remaining short position down to 1.35% from 1.78%.

[edjge2] 04/5/2018 08:04

Very surprised CAML did not bounce up from 280. Market know something we don't? Any H&S has played out. Holding price 15% down. Top up or hold for next news IMO.

[rogash] 03/5/2018 13:47

Sorry pod, you are correct, the last were sold on 9/2/18 at 275p.

[podgyted] 03/5/2018 13:23

Didn't he sell all his shares in a recent placement?

[rogash] 03/5/2018 12:35

I notice that the stock price has suffered since Mr. Rakishev announced his retirement
on the 26/4/18. I wonder if he is selling his shares?

[aishah] 02/5/2018 18:56

Goldman Sachs: The case for owning commodities has "rarely been stronger"
by Courtney Goldsmith

2 May 2018 5:09pm

Goldman expects oil to peak at $82.50 a barrel in July (Source: Getty)
The strategic case for investing in commodities has "rarely been stronger" than it is now, according to Goldman Sachs.

In a note published yesterday, Goldman Sachs researchers said commodities are the best performing asset class of 2018.

According to the lender's figures, commodity markets are outperforming equities by eight per cent, with a year-to-date return of seven per cent.

"As we have argued since going 'overweight' in 2016, the strategic case for owning commodities has rarely been stronger."

"While commodity returns are volatile... they also offer the best returns for years at a time. We believe the macro backdrop for commodities is as good as we have seen in years, suggesting large allocations to the sector to benefit from such returns," the note said.

Despite this, Goldman Sachs' researchers said investors are still wary of commodities due to a decade of weak performance on commodity indexes, a fear of buying the top and a lack of a structural catalyst like Chinese demand in the 2000s.

"These factors combined with fears of geopolitical premiums embedded in oil and metal prices due to US trade and foreign policy concerns has led to a high level of scepticism and hence an unwillingness to embrace the recent rally."

However, researchers led by Jeffrey Currie, said: "The key is the persistence of the current higher prices, not that prices are likely to trend substantially higher from here like they did in the 2000s."

Goldman forecasts oil to peak at $82.50 a barrel in July and said copper is expected to peak at $8,000 per tonne in December, but it said it sees "significant upside" to its 2019 forecasts.

[essential] 02/5/2018 14:00

Bounced off year long support at 282ish

[mount teide] 02/5/2018 11:46

5% up move in less than an hour

L2 - short, sharp attack of sustained heavy activity from the longs caught the shorts off guard and simply overpowered them.

[edjge2] 02/5/2018 11:30

bounce to 300? Nice sharp jump fair bit of profit from 280 to 320p Copper likely to follow gold up from 1300 bounce. Odd as usually leads gold.

[mount teide] 02/5/2018 11:16

martin - since around the time of the placing for the takeover of Lynx

[edjge2] 02/5/2018 08:09

lookss still like a special offer move should be sharp once shorters war resolves

[martinthebrave] 01/5/2018 19:54

Mount Teide Do you know how long the short positions have been held? #CAML does seem a strange choice for them. Is it a pure play on Copper prices? Thanks, MTB

[mount teide] 01/5/2018 13:51

L2 - the underwater shorts put a lot of effort into getting the share-price down to the low 300's prior to it going ex-dividend, in the hope they could hammer the price down into the 270/280's to trigger stop loss selling.

To date it has failed - we are now sitting at a stalemate with both sides continually keeping the bid and offer sides of the book well loaded and, responding immediately to each other's activities whenever either tries to steal a march.

The shorters tactic is to bombard the offer with lots of small positions to create an impression of strong selling pressure, while the longs are generally content to just have a few large blocking positions on the bid.

L2 is currently 1 v 16 - 4.4k v 6.9k

[arf dysg] 01/5/2018 10:13

bob_rjp (1658) "Never a good idea to leave a stop loss in place overnight"

Indeed. Of course, those nice MMs always have your best interests at heart and would never cause the price to jump down 10p for a tenth of a second just so that they can force you to sell your shares cheaply, because that would be the behaviour of a cad and they're not like that.

[bob_rjp] 30/4/2018 22:57

Nice bounce today, hopefully 280 acting as a floor. Made it to 292 at one point, enough to remove my immediate concerns about hitting my 10% loss limit anyway.

I don’t use stop losses as they can often trigger at unfortunate times. Never a good idea to leave a stop loss in place overnight I’ve found, just in case you get a bit of a gap down at the open followed by a recovery - a pretty common scenario. My spreadsheet highlights if a stock has exceeded its loss limit and it’s up to me to sell manually if I decide to do that. Also setting a stop loss too close to a support level like 280 here would be a very bad idea.

Anyway onwards and upwards from here hopefully !.

[kenmitch] 29/4/2018 16:06

Very interesting posts again Mount Teide. The mining bear market that ended early 2016 was exceptional. I started buying the sector (eg KAZ, GLENCORE, RIO And 3 Mining Investment Trusts) as their share prices fell towards 2008 bear market lows, as was confident prices wouldn’t go much lower than that extreme bear market. They went on to fall way lower than in 2008, and sometimes another 70%. The recovery since has been great, but better still for anyone who bought at the bottom. Some (eg KAZ and Anglo American) have gone up 8 to 10 times,yet as Mount Teide has shown their prices even after these gains are way below previous bull market peaks. E.g KAZ arguably a much better outfit now, with two new low cost copper mines up and running, is still at £9, less than half previous peak.

As for CAML the current fall is surprising and if it continues while Sector doing OK would suggest bad news leaking. Share did fall from 322p to 280p earlier this year,before bounce to 340p. So hopefully 280p (not in to charts but bounce now a double bottom?)will prove to be the low again this time.

Each to their own with investment methods and tactics but I prefer to sell for investment reasons rather than rigid stop loss, with arguably 10% stop loss a bit tight as increases risk of selling just ahead of perhaps long term bounce.

CAML fundamentals seem so good.. e.g cash profit margin around 60% and near double profit forecast of $118 million and eps of 53 cents in 2018, along with that big and growing dividend suggest at 280p CAML is currently very good value......as long as the market doesn’t know something we don’t!

EDIT. Surely late 2015 was the once in a generation buying opportunity? Even so could be plenty more gains to come.

[mount teide] 29/4/2018 11:36

In tandem with the price of industrial metals, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI)dropped off from its more than two year high during Q1/2018 amid fears that buoyant global growth may have hit a soft patch and had started to slow.

This concern is starting to look short lived, as the BDI has rebounded extremely strongly at the start of Q2, surging some 45% in just the last two weeks.

The BDI is a global trade indicator that measures deep sea shipping costs for commodities and the future direction of economic growth. It is seen as a global growth bellwether.

To give some context to this recent strong rise which has taken the BDI up 363% from the H1/2016 low, it is still 88% down from the 2009 peak of the last shipping/commodity cycle - strongly suggesting that the shipping/commodity markets are still in the early stages of recovery, since the BDI could quadruple from today and still not reach the mean value of the last shipping/commodity cycle.

[edjge2] 29/4/2018 08:14

Met last low at 280p due a bounce I think.

[bob_rjp] 28/4/2018 23:06

Hi BU. Yes my CAML exploits haven’t worked out too well to date. No reflection on your input though, I quite see how the stock looks like an attractive proposition. Thanks again for the tip, and I really mean that.

On reflection a couple of things have gone wrong for me here. Firstly my initial entry price was too high, the stock looked like it was in a strong uptrend when I first bought and there seemed to no good reason to delay at the time – but now it’s clear that this was a mistake. I DID take the precaution of only buying a half sized holding so that I could average down if the price fell. On XD day I had a limit order set to buy at 292 (previous days closing price -10p divi plus 1p for contingency) and was surprised at the open that the order wasn’t filled. Turns out it opened much higher than that so I raised my limit order to 295. That was filled in the first half hour. Didn’t look at it much after that as I was doing other things, by the time I looked again in the afternoon it was down at 285. Had I bought at that price things would be a bit different now. Anyway right now my average is 307 I think (including the dividend) which is better than where I was with my initial purchase. But if it drops below about 275 I shall probably take my lumps and exit. That’s not far away right now.

I’ve been busy buying quite a few other stocks of which most have done well, was a good week last week. HSBC has done really well and my two purchases bought at 695 and then 662 are now handily in profit. Have now recouped about a quarter of my pref losses and have an income stream which is ~75% of my old pref portfolio. Still got about 25% left in cash but have identified target purchases (most due in May as stocks go XD) that will account for most of that.

Sadly CAML is by far my worst performing stock ATM. Got 3-4 stocks that are sort of 1-3% down but everything else is in profit.

ATB