Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[andyj] 25/4/2018 12:45

I can't see a head and shoulders yet. I can see a healthy retest of the support line of the uptrend. Healthy supposing it holds of course.

[rhubarbcrumble] 25/4/2018 12:31

But where is the right shoulder?

[zaphod99] 25/4/2018 10:24

Head and Shoulders.....edjge has a bad case of dandruff

[petenorrislos] 25/4/2018 10:15

What is H&S?

[edjge2] 25/4/2018 08:07

Drop may be more than divi tomorrow DYOR and an entry soon.
Sub 300 looks entirely possible. H&S completing.

[thevaluehunter] 24/4/2018 14:52

It's hard to see these metal prices falling in the current environment I think the 2018 forecasts are way to pessimistic. Dividend of 3.25% on Thursday!

[thevaluehunter] 24/4/2018 13:51

Copper, lead and zinc prices doing pretty well today I think there could be a major breakout to the upside soon. Not sure why anyone would be selling at this level. This time last year copper was at $5730 no we are at $7050.

[mount teide] 24/4/2018 13:19

Ex Dividend - Thursday 26 April

[edjge2] 24/4/2018 08:12

curled out of its rising channel. Could be H&S.
Ex div in a few days for about 5%

[shanklin] 23/4/2018 16:22

Carcosa and MT

Thank you :-)

[mount teide] 23/4/2018 16:16

They are the latest broker consensus metal price forecasts that were put in the CAML Results Presentation on the 12 April.

While still below the average achieved to date in 2018, they are some circa 8%-10% above those used for Copper and Lead in QuotedData's 2018 Forecast, which produced a similar 37.5p earnings figure to that issued by Peel Hunt in early Feb.

[carcosa] 23/4/2018 16:13

Shanklin, Since it's you I will answer but I thought it was self explanatory(???)
US dollars, price per ton. Data from CAML's last presentation

[shanklin] 23/4/2018 16:05

carcosa

What units are you using for those numbers please and what do they relate to?

[carcosa] 23/4/2018 15:06

The company has provided guidance on expected commodity prices based on analysts forecasts:

$6,767 - Copper
$3,307 - Zine
$2,488 - Lead

So anything below that for the year is a miss as presumably company analysts will be guided by that.

[thevaluehunter] 23/4/2018 14:09

This looks like a very good entry point. I have $150m ebitda in my forecast

The price of copper is still well above the average price of $6,107 per tonne in 2017

[mount teide] 21/4/2018 15:48

Good to see the Institutional investor herd is finally waking up to the reversion of the commodity cycle to the mean. Some of us correctly called the 8 year low shipping and commodity cycle bottom in H1/2016, went in heavily and, have been averaging up for over 18 months as the investment case continues to strengthen.



Commodities are flashing a once-in-a-generation buy signal - US Global Investors




'Since the commodities supercycle unwound nearly 10 years ago, many investors have been waiting for the right conditions to trigger mean reversion and lift prices. I believe those conditions are either firmly in place right now or, at the very least, in their early stages. Among them are factors I’ve discussed at length elsewhere—a weaker U.S. dollar, a steadily flattening yield curve, heightened market volatility, overvalued stocks, expectations of higher inflation, trade war jitters, geopolitical risks and more.

In addition, nearly 60 percent of money managers surveyed by Bank of America Merrill Lynch believe 2018 could be the peak year for stocks. A recent J.P. Morgan survey found that three quarters of ultra-high net worth individuals forecast a U.S. recession in the next two years.

All of this makes the investment case for commodities, gold and energy more compelling than at any other time in recent memory.

Exhibit A is the chart below, which I’ve shared before but recently updated with new data. Relative to equities, commodities are as cheap right now as they’ve been in decades. This is literally a once-in-a-generation opportunity that investors with a long-term view should seriously consider. For perspective, had you invested in a fund tracking the S&P GSCI or an equivalent commodities index in 2000, you would have seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 10 percent for the next 10 years, according to Bloomberg data...............

.............We all know that past performance is no guarantee of future results, but it’s doubtful you’re going to get a clearer or resounding signal that now could be an ideal time to add to your commodities exposure. If you feel as if you’ve been stuck at a traffic light these past few years, just waiting to put your foot on the accelerator, you can breathe a sigh of relief because the light may have just turned green.

Goldman: Time to Overweight Commodities

I'm not alone in my bullishness. In a note this week, analysts at Goldman Sachs write that “the strategic case for owning commodities has rarely been stronger.” The bank recommends an overweight position, estimating that commodities will yield at least 10 percent over the next 12 months, with most of the gains being made by crude oil and aluminum.

Whereas crude traders are responding primarily to concerns that output could be disrupted by intensifying conflict in the Middle East, specifically oil producer Syria, aluminum prices have skyrocketed following the imposition of fresh U.S. sanctions against a number of Russian firms. Among them is United Company RUSAL, the world’s second-largest aluminum company, responsible for producing as much as 6 percent of global supply..................'

[mount teide] 20/4/2018 14:42

Private equity targeting copper mining after majors wilt on Capex - Metal Bulletin today



'Private equity funds are looking to capitalize on gaps in the copper supply pipeline by investing in small-scale mining projects, Pala investments managing partner Stephen Gill told Metal Bulletin.

In an interview during the Cesco Copper Week in Santiago, Chile, Gill said that copper miners face a series of obstacles in bringing large-scale mine supply into production and that a lack of capital expenditure since 2012 has brought about a deficit situation that should come into play next year.

This situation provides a prime point of entry for private equity funds, such as Pala, to gain from the potential upside for copper prices by bringing smaller mines into production. “Structurally, today is a most interesting time to be an investor,” said Gill, whose Pala Investments fund is a cornerstone investor in US miner Nevada Copper.

A constrained supply pipeline - The opportunity for investment funds comes in the shape of a lack of new projects in the copper mining pipeline, since prices peaked at more than $10,000 per tonne in February 2011....'

[scottishfield] 19/4/2018 17:24

oh cheers. thank you

[mount teide] 19/4/2018 16:20

sf - div payment is 25th May

[waterloo01] 19/4/2018 16:16

ATYM is off the blocks if anyone's interested. Permit for 2nd mine in Spain seems to be progressing and resource update due. DYOR

[scottishfield] 19/4/2018 15:48

Yes, just had some more here. X divi next week, payment in June

[thevaluehunter] 19/4/2018 15:47

Could be a good entry point, also dividend next week.

[edjge2] 19/4/2018 08:52

Can be a bit sluggish but let it catch up and get into its rising channel, taking a rest at present, nice price though.

[mount teide] 18/4/2018 18:33

Peel Hunt are yet to update their Feb Note that had 37.1p EPS and 18.7p dividend but, did put put out an ADD rating post the results.



TD Securities: Looming Trade War Puts Upward Pressure On Zinc Price

Amidst concerns of a global trade war, the zinc market looks set to trend upwards according to TD Securities. After hitting a decade-high earlier this year, the Investment Bank has just released a "bullish" outlook, revising its forecasts for the next two years; raising its 2019 estimate to US $1.75 a pound and 2020 estimate to US $1.50 a pound. Previous estimates were US $1.45 and US $1.30 respectively.