Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[arf dysg] 12/4/2018 10:52

Ah, I'm adding the recent interim dividend to last year's final. I should be adding the _previous_ interim. Oops.

[podgyted] 12/4/2018 10:43

Last years dividend was 15.5p - interim 5.5p final 10.0p .

It's the financial year it relates to, not when it was actually paid.

[v11slr] 12/4/2018 10:38

ARF Dysg, I think you're adding the final of 2016 to the interim of 2017.

[cgequityinvest] 12/4/2018 10:36

The Shuak grades were commented on in the presentation this morning with reference being made to grades in Kazakhstan being lower than those seen in Brazil and other parts of the world. However management seemed to believe there was interesting potential in the Oxide areas and they are recommencing a fairly comprehensive drilling programme in June this year.

[arf dysg] 12/4/2018 10:35

Surely some mistake???

My records show that I received dividends from CAML:

10.0p/share paid 7th Jun 2017 ex div 11th May in respect of results 4th April
6.5p/share paid 27th Oct 2017 ex div 5th Oct in respect of results 22nd Sep

...but now the results say that last year's dividend was 15.5p not 16.5 p. The London Stock Exchange web site (summary graphs for CAML) also says that last year's dividend was 15.5p.

This is wrong!

Look at the interim results (also on LSE web site) - the official announcement on RNS of the interim results (22nd Sep 2017) specifically says that the interim is 6.5p/share. My records show that I did indeed receive that.

...so how the FR*&"£*&@@ can they say (today) that last year's dividend was 15.5p ????

[mr roper] 12/4/2018 10:06

i think you all could be right, the latest BKM assays of 25% copper have got my head spinning.

[mount teide] 12/4/2018 09:58

MrR - we're being continually spoilt by ARS's outstanding KSK exploration assay results - much of the rest of the industry continues to successfully operate with far more modest near surface copper grades.

[bluerunner] 12/4/2018 09:56

Yes - compared to ARS assay results, anything would look relatively poor.

[gary1966] 12/4/2018 09:55

Mr R, You have got too used to the grades that ARS are finding.:-)

[mr roper] 12/4/2018 09:28

anyone else think the shuak assay grades were underwhelming?

[masurenguy] 12/4/2018 09:22

Good results and even better prospects going forward !

"2017 was a strong year for all of the base metals in CAML's portfolio, with the three metals averaging a price increase of 28%. Going forward into 2018, many industry commentators are expecting a challenging year for copper supply that could result in another positive 12 months for the copper price. In the zinc market, supply side challenges remain, while demand is expected to increase to over 15 million tonnes by 2019. The 2017 CAML share price closed at £3.06, which represents a 35% increase during the year, and reflected positive market sentiment following our Lynx Resources acquisition. We now move forward into 2018 as a larger and diversified base metals business, with low cost operations in two prospective jurisdictions. CAML has enjoyed an excellent 2017 and we look forward to continuing to build the Company's future in 2018." Nick Clarke, Chairman

[brockwl2] 12/4/2018 09:13

Decent enough results. Quick calculations suggest a Forward PE of 7.5 to 8 when taking into account the debt and adding this to the market cap.
If we take a conservative view and assume no growth, as debt is repaid over coming years this should bring my adjusted PE down to just over 5.
Based on these conservative figures, decent dividend, and potential for further commodity price rises I'm happy to hold at these levels, and would be a buyer if it dips.

My only real concern was the grades and production from the Q1 statement seemed a little muted. The Copper can be explained by the extreme cold weather, but the new Lead and Zinc levels were a little below my expectations. So a minor worry there, but they have maintained forecasts, so I'll give benefit of doubt for now.

Lee

[mount teide] 12/4/2018 09:09

Total Shareholder Returns - CAGR since 2010 IPO

+24.9% - CAML

-0.9% - Antofagasta
-1.1% - Oz Minerals
-1.4% - FTSE 350 Mining
-4.6% - Atalaya
-7.0% - Kaz Minerals
-13.7% - Capstone
-21.0% - Weatherly


Outstanding performance considering the industry has been in recession during 2010-2016 - highlights well the importance of well managed, low operating cost and low capex operations to long term shareholders returns.

[thevaluehunter] 12/4/2018 08:48

The dividend yield looks pretty decent going forward if the achieve the forecast production.

[bluerunner] 12/4/2018 08:42

Commodities outlook, mining super-cycle etc. as stated by sector experts still holds.Where else is as well-positioned as CAML - and also pays a dividend - to exploit this opportunity?Costs up due to cold winter (-38C) is not surprising. There is often some profit-taking on results day.CAML could enter main index generating institutional buying and could also be a takeover target.For what it is worth, IC will probably reissue their BUY rating today and likely this will be in the paper edition tomorrow.

[podgyted] 12/4/2018 08:28

At first pass the current profit forecasts for 2018 also looking quite pessimistic. I guess we'll see some quick updates.

Surprised on the upside generally.

Dividend increase was a big positive - thought they would hold or slightly decrease this year due to increased shares in issue following the Q4 issue to fund Sasa.

Over to the market!

PT

[from8to800] 12/4/2018 08:18

Less than enthusiastic market response though... Stop loss in place!

[carcosa] 12/4/2018 08:12

Plugging in the broker commodity consensus prices for 2018 given in the presentation ( hxxps://www.centralasiametals.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/CAML-2017-results.pdf ) I get:

Forecast Price/Ton ($) Revenue
Copper 13500 $6,767 $91,354,500
Zinc 22000 $3,307 $72,754,000
Lead 29000 $2,488 $72,152,000

$236,260,500

Which is around 8% higher than the last analyst forecast I saw for 2018.

[mount teide] 12/4/2018 07:56

As expected a very strong set of results - a well managed, low cost business paying industry leading dividends - proposed final dividend is nearly double Peel Hunt's post SASA acquisition forecast.

Outlook:
We have set our 2018 copper production target at between 13,000 and 14,000 tonnes. We expect to produce between 21,000 and 23,000 tonnes of zinc and between 28,000 and 30,000 tonnes of lead from Sasa during 2018.....

.....Both Kounrad and Sasa are expected to be highly cash generative and should enable the Company to remain one of the leading dividend payers in the sector. From 2018, the CAML dividend policy is to return to shareholders a target range of between 30% and 50% of free cash flow, defined as net cash generated from operating activities less capital expenditure.

[carcosa] 12/4/2018 07:56

My initial takeaway:

Actual v Analysts
EPS $0.29 v $0.21(?)
Dividend 16.5p v 12.8p
Revenues $106.5m v $97.7 estimate
EBITDA (Adj) $66.4 v $39.8 (Check what adjustments are)
EBITDA $53.8 v $39.8

Production costs at Kounrad (Copper) up 20%

Copper bay holding (75%) up for sale ($2m??)

Outlook: Copper good. Zinc Not so good

Sasa integratoin ok but hidden suggestion there are issues

$12m deferred consideration for Sasa payable in six equal monthly instalments commencing on the first anniversary of the acquisition. Not a biggie.

CAML dividend :While we have made changes to our dividend policy, we believe that this policy, coupled with the cash generative nature of our two operations, should ensure that our shareholders continue to receive attractive dividends from us

Internal board changes

Lower than anticipated Q1/18 production but claimed to be seasonal and will still meet full year production estimates.

[waterloo01] 12/4/2018 07:53

Looking good. All quiet here though?

[srpactive] 12/4/2018 07:53

C

Are you happy with your results?

[edjge2] 11/4/2018 11:59

Back into up channel after some dithering, results tomorrow will tell.
RE copper I see CAPX made a 3v capacitor now that my reduce wiring greatly when perfected and voltage/ power increased, tiny so could network them, good for robotics, charge wirelessly fast.

[mount teide] 11/4/2018 09:08

Couple of recent Seeking Alpha articles from Joshua Hall on the Copper and Zinc markets, the contents of which closely mirrors much of my own research.


Copper Fundamental Outlook - Buy The Dips



Summary:

'Copper demand is a barometer of Asian economic growth.

I am forecasting a 300,000 tonne surplus for 2018 followed by annual deficits as far as the eye can see.

After a moderate increase in 2018, I expect copper prices to continue to rise to encourage the capital investment needed for new supply.

Copper is in the early stages of a significant long-term bull market. Buy the dips.'



Zinc Market Update



Summary:

'I provide an important update to my recent article on zinc fundamentals.

Three companies have since announced projects that are going to bring new supply to the market in 2018-219.

Glencore's guidance reveals they want a permanently higher zinc price.

The zinc bull will march higher in 2018.

A little over a month ago I reported a bullish outlook on zinc in the article titled 'A Glencore Restart Will Not Stop Zinc From Moving Higher'. Since that time a number of important production announcements have come through so I decided to provide an update.'

[mount teide] 10/4/2018 23:31

Copper supply crunch earlier than predicted - Mining.com/today


'Copper demand will surpass supply earlier than expected, with the first clear signs coming as early as next year, experts attending the 17th World’s Copper Conference being held this week in Santiago, Chile, said.

According to Arnaud Soirat, chef executive for copper and diamonds at Rio Tinto, increased consumption from new technologies, including electric vehicles, will drive demand for the metal and its by-products, he said.

"We anticipate global market supply and demand will keep close to balance in 2019 and 2020,” he said, noting that after that the deficit will become increasingly evident.

The outlook is widely shared by other experts, including CRU analyst Hamish Sampson. According to him, unless new investments arise, existing mine production will drop from 20 million tonnes to below 12 million tonnes by 2034, leading to a supply shortfall of more than 15 million tonnes.

The situation looks even worse when considering that over 200 copper mines currently in operations will reach the end of their productive life before 2035, Sampson said on Monday.

Only if every single copper project currently in development or being studied for feasibility is brought online before then, including most discoveries that have not yet reached the evaluation stage, the market could meet projected demand, the consultant said.

Colin Hamilton, managing director of commodities research at BMO Capital Markets, fully agrees with Sampson. He told MINING.com on Tuesday that even when there was an apparent rise in copper inventories on exchanges around the world, which somehow has dented confidence in the metal, the outlook is very positive.

“What we’ve seen is a shift from invisible to visible stockpiles,” Hamilton said, adding that Chinese inventories so far this year are at the lowest levels in recent times.

Delivery to exchanges, however, does weigh on prices because of data-driven investors, which adds to the facts that shareholders are still somewhat opposed to companies investing in new projects and exploration. “They just want returns,” Hamilton said.

He believes the expected copper supply crunch will become “much more real” in 2019, due to the lack of mega-projects coming on stream before the mid-2020s and as global production will peak by the second half of next year.'



Its no coincidence that the CEO's of Glencore, Antofagasta and CAML recently went on record as actively pursuing the acquisition of further copper assets.