Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[zho] 05/4/2022 11:20

A couple of tweets from Momentum Investor:

Been busy writing next issue but noticed terrific #CAML results. Chunky 12p final dividend and fantastic cash generation. Crucially, no more badly timed hedges so will fully benefit from strong copper prices this year. Ballooning cash pile could fund a third leg.

Apologies, #CAML declared a 14p final and 20p for the year, making for a chunky 8.4% yield! Net cash forecast progression: US$85m, US$150m and US$211m for FY'22-'24. Incredible money making machine.

[melton john] 05/4/2022 10:58

An informative history of the breakup of the Russian empire on youtube. Like the British Empire, all the Stans and other satellites were populated by a significant number of colonisers from Russia who thought they lived in an enlarged Russia and built a life there over generations. Take away the USSR and people suddenly living in a different country and you have the Northern Ireland troubles many times over or another Yugoslavia. Added to that the proximity of China to the eastern states means Kazakhstan has to watch its back as well as watch Russia.
A good watch for most of us who didn't pay a lot of attention at the time while worrying about things closer to home.

[zho] 05/4/2022 08:35

How Putin "Lost" Kazakhstan, And Squashed His Own Soviet Revival

For Vladimir Putin, invading Ukraine was the first massive step in reviving the power of Soviet times. His war has done the opposite. Kazakhstan is the first former Soviet republic to distance itself from Russia and turn to the West. But the Central Asian country may not be able to free itself of Russian influence as quickly as it would like.

[zho] 01/4/2022 14:15

Thanks for the IC link: I would have missed that. The article finishes with:

"The broker ... sees the free cash flow yield rising from 15.6 per cent this year to 23.6 per cent in 2023.

"CAML stands out on Aim: a rare consistent source of income which doesn't throw its cash at the latest-and-greatest commodity. That looks set to continue, just with higher free cash flow."

[zho] 01/4/2022 10:44

>>Has there been any update on the new mining taxes talked about in Kaz?>>

I don't think it's certain yet although Nigel Robinson discussed likely levels of taxation and their effects on profits in the Investor Meet presentation.

[sithuk] 01/4/2022 10:23

Has there been any update on the new mining taxes talked about in Kaz? I was surprised that there wasn't anything on that risk in the results.

[zho] 31/3/2022 10:12

Global equities have corrected hard over the past 15 months against commodities, and if we are right about that we will find ourselves in a new commodity super cycle over the next decade, then investors must understand asset allocation and get an overweight exposure to commodities. It is easy to get caught up in the short-term noise of war, earnings releases and price moves, but the bigger picture suggests that equities will experience a dramatic repricing against inflation and commodities in the years to come.

[pughman] 30/3/2022 15:44

That's part of the problem. Even though the shares are ridiculously cheap, no-one is going to bid for CAML. There wasn't a sniff of being taken over before recent events, so it ain't going to happen now.

[martindjzz] 30/3/2022 15:34

As Gary says, there isn’t much more management can do and the Company is tainted by proximity. I read somewhere that insiders hold about 6.75m shares between them. It would be interesting to know if they are happy to to sit back and take the income. If not, I wonder what sort of bid to buy the company the Board would find acceptable.

[spoole5] 30/3/2022 13:57

Just sit back and take the income!

[garycook] 30/3/2022 12:37

Berenberg cuts Central Asia Metals price target to 310 (320) pence - 'buy' With Copper,Lead and Zinc well up today. CAML down,while other Miners up around 2%.Will never understand this share,very frustrating owning CAML.With Tuesday,s result,s and the dividend increase.Nothing more that management could do any better.Should be at least 250p atm.

[zho] 29/3/2022 14:11

Jeff H

>>I think the $3.5m difference is the Restricted Cash>>

Wow, well done. Still a minor mystery though, because it would mean CAML included the $3.5m restricted cash in the net cash balance of $26.2m implied in the January TU, but not in today's statement.

[mw16] 29/3/2022 13:41

Any ideas why we are down?

[jeff h] 29/3/2022 11:41

Well spotted about the cash discrepancy zho!

I think the $3.5m difference is the Restricted Cash - see Note 25 on the financial statements.

[baddeal] 29/3/2022 10:51

These are excellent numbers, already in a net cash position and cash should now build strongly with cu price where it is.

[spoole5] 29/3/2022 09:12

Miserly market response to excellent figures

[garycook] 29/3/2022 07:40

Final Dividend up 50%,from 8p to 12p,and CAML will be debt free by August 2022.Interesting where the share price goes today.Should be well up.Investors will be buying in for the dividend.Now yielding 8.33% at 240p

[zho] 29/3/2022 07:33

Thanks Jeff H, I'd forgotten that, although today's RNS shows net cash of $22.7m, not $26.2m.

Only just up, so I might have overlooked something that explains this discrepancy, but otherwise results look v good.

[cthompso] 29/3/2022 07:27

Excellent results, exceeding expectations, and a stonking dividend to come.Lovely jubbly!

[jeff h] 28/3/2022 20:02

Cash figures at 31/12/21 already known from the 2021 Operations Update RNS of 11/1/22:-

Cash and debt

As of 31 December 2021, CAML had cash in the bank of $59.2 million and gross debt of $33.0 million, inclusive of drawn North Macedonian overdraft facilities totalling $9.6 million.

Net Cash at 31/12/21 then will be USD $26.2m.

The last forecast I had sight of from VSA Capital on 14/1/22 was going for EPS of 45 Cents and a total 2021 Dividend of 16.8p...hopefully both will be exceeded though we not got long to wait to find out!

[zho] 28/3/2022 18:32

CAML should be reporting FY2021 results tomorrow.  The FT forecasts eps of 46 cents (35p) after H1 eps of 20.3 cents 15.4p).

Net debt was $36.2m at the start of the year, reduced to $10.2m at the half way stage.

[zho] 26/3/2022 15:42

It is, yes. Apologies for that.