Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[jeff h] 26/3/2022 15:23

Think it's this one you meant to post zho:-

[zho] 26/3/2022 07:35

CAML are presenting on the 7th April. I don't think the event is being streamed but a video should be available shortly afterwards.

[spoole5] 24/3/2022 11:38

Zinc continues to climb. We are unhedged, straight to free cash flow. Roll on Tues.

[the count of monte_cristo] 23/3/2022 11:49

Russia’s Invasion Is Crushing China’s Belt And Road Ambitions

By Eurasianet - Mar 22, 2022, 12:00 PM CDT
Sanctions on Russia are forcing China to rethink its regional trade and development strategies.
The economic hit is minor when compared to the social, economic and geopolitical headache that Russia’s invasion is creating for Xi’s government.
Kazakhstan is the Central Asian nation with the most to lose from Belt and Road disruption.
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Sanctions on Russia are sidetracking China’s Silk Road Rail Corridor – disrupting freight traffic and creating losses for China – while forcing Beijing to rethink regional trade, development and security strategies. But the most severe long-term consequences may be felt in Kazakhstan.

Boosting rail traffic running from China to the European Union via a web of routes through Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus is a key element in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a $1 trillion vision unveiled by Chinese leader Xi Jinping in 2013 to project Beijing’s economic and political influence around the world. Rail traffic through Russian territory ran on schedule during the first few weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as orders initiated prior to the war completed their transcontinental journeys. But while transit via the sanctioned Russian Railways is still technically possible, a growing number of logistics companies have effectively halted BRI-related operations through Russia.

[the count of monte_cristo] 22/3/2022 02:50

Agreed, and will it be of the blue sky speculation type, as with a Mocoa type project or will it be with a producing or near term producing asset. Diversifying assets further outside of Kaz seems prudent enough.

[andydaf] 21/3/2022 06:48

As the count correctly says we are looking for another project,i just hope we do not overpay.AAZ have the libero deal though as a aaz shareholder i am sure they will have enough to be getting on with in Azerbaijan shortly.Will be interesting where the next project for Caml will be located though.As always GLA

[the count of monte_cristo] 21/3/2022 02:50

Andy - the company have stated they are actively looking for acquisitions, so although you may have your idea about the company strategy the management of CAML have another idea and are looking for projects. The AAZ deal with Libero will probably prove to be an excellent one, news on the Mocoa drilling news any day now.

[garycook] 20/3/2022 13:22

F/Y results Tue 29th.

[andydaf] 20/3/2022 12:30

lets see how the full year results are in a week or so.Cash building goes on week by week here.I do not expect kaz to enter war or be sanctioned but what do i know.By normal metrics caml is getting very cheap,plenty of mine life left so i am expecting large dividends here as i do not believe the company needs to chase other projects yet.GLA

[the count of monte_cristo] 20/3/2022 11:40

I hope CAML invest wisely and do an AAZ type deal like the one they have done with Libero Resources who are now drilling the world class Mocoa copper/moly project in Columbia.

[zho] 15/3/2022 17:55

"Ukraine Should Remain Stable, Independent, and Territorially Integral State, Says Kazakh Foreign Minister" ....

... but "Two Noted Russia Critics In Kazakhstan Handed Lengthy Prison Terms"

[zho] 11/3/2022 10:38

"Kazakhstan will send medicines worth over $2.2 million as a humanitarian assistance to Ukraine", perhaps putting a little distance between Kazakhstan and Putin?

[zho] 10/3/2022 10:36

Danske Bank said in a note that it does not expect the Russia-Ukraine conflict to spread to other countries and sees commodity prices broadly moderating over the next six months.

"We expect the Ukrainian and Russian leaders to eventually agree on a truce. We also believe that the Ukrainian government will be forced to painful concessions in the absence of direct military intervention by the West/NATO," it said......

[gotabsirius] 09/3/2022 20:05

Worst thing the West could do is impose sanctions on other satellite states...it plays straight into Putin's hands. Best not to isolate these countries

[the_gold_mine] 09/3/2022 19:38

I've kept my holding here unchanged, I haven't seen any indication that Kazakhstan is going to enter into the conflict on behalf of Russia, and as Zho has pointed out the truck export route for the copper can be modified if problems arise with the current routing.

I can't see how parallels are getting drawn between Belarus and Kazakhstan, the beef with Belarus was they housed 10s of thousands of Russian troops and were used as a staging point for the invasion - Kazakhstan doesn't look to be close enough to pull a similar stunt.

Drawings parallels with other commodities e.g. oil (whilst interesting) does not appear to be fully relevant in this case.

I think the recent sell-off is overdone, and am in agreement with spoole5, share buy-backs seem like a no-brainer given CAMLs assets and revenue versus current share price.

[spoole5] 09/3/2022 19:06

Like POLY today

[pol123] 09/3/2022 18:47

With risk comes opportunity. When the Ukraine / Russia situation resolves, which it will. I expect confidence to increase markedly and recent share price weakness will become a distant memory....Thats my glass half full view, sentiment can change quickly, lets see

[masurenguy] 09/3/2022 15:44

Masurenguy 21 Oct '21 - 4747: The location of the Kounrad operation in Kazakhstan is a political risk factor, which does have a bearing on the CAML investment criterion.

Masurenguy 28 Oct 21 - 4756: There is a trust issue in all of these former Soviet states - as there are with Chinese based companies - that you're either happy to take or not. I was also invested here but became somewhat nervous after the results in March and sold out @272p in early April.

Casholaa 6 Jan '22 - 4853: @Masurenguy, Khazakhstan as a country, is a criminal enterprise, not safe for business unless the natives get to wet their beaks.

caiman47 6 Jan '22 - 4854: Kounrad relies on transporting the great majority of its copper production to Turkey (by rail) for sale. Any significant interruption to the transport network will have a direct impact on cashflow. For what it is worth, I have just sold half my holding in CAML.

zaphod99 7 Mar '22 - 5023: Geoplitical risk. Kazakhstan closely aligned with Russia.

Although none of us previously forsaw the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, and the outlook for copper remains bullish, the inherent geopolitical risks for CAML have been evident here for some time.

[zaphod99] 09/3/2022 15:23

Unfortunately it’s a bit more complex than that.



Worst case scenario, if Kazakhstan sides with Russia as seems likely, will a British miner like CAML still be welcome in Kazakhstan or will the Kazakhs look to expropriate the assets?

Hopefully it won’t come to that but it’s happened in neighbouring ‘Stans in recent years.

[zho] 09/3/2022 15:00

mondex,

According to Brad_K's post 5011 above, the export route for CAML's copper is up to Traxys:

We sell over 95% of our copper cathode to metals trader, Traxys, which buys the metal from us at the mine gate and pays us for it at that point. Transport, country of sale etc is all their decision. You are correct that they currently sell the majority to Turkey but it does not go by rail, it goes by trucks, either through Russia to Georgia and then Turkey or south through Turkmenistan. The reality for Traxys is that if there were any challenges on their routes, they would have to find another buyer for the copper / use a different route.

[mondex] 09/3/2022 14:32

Thank you MT. This indicates clearly why the market is currently hammering the CAML share price & why it is essential for CAML to clearly state that their Cu does NOT go through Russia & is unaffected by the current conflict.

[zho] 09/3/2022 12:12

>>Not sure on the currency angle ...>>

Agreed

[pol123] 09/3/2022 11:50

People seem to forget we sell at the gate. Transportation/route is the off-takers domain. Poly can still conduct business in Russia, sort of tells you the real state of play. Not sure on the currency angle RH states a weak Tenga is a positive as we are $$ denominated

[zho] 09/3/2022 11:36

Here's a piece by Roland Head explaining why he's sold his CAML:

[zho] 09/3/2022 11:36

>>If Kazakhstan continues to align with Russia>>

At the moment, Kaz appears to be distancing itself from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"Kazakhstan abstaining from outright supporting Russia is a signal loud enough to indicate the Kazakh government’s divergence from the Kremlin’s chosen course."