Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[kael] 28/10/2020 12:57

Something must be going in in the background. Odd trading activity and still no news of dividend. I believe the company said they awaited clarity of cost and impact of leak. Well they had that weeks ago so what are they waiting for.

[11_percent] 28/10/2020 12:01

There is no doubt in my mind that the share price is being held down by bots/algos/AT trades......probably for an offer for the company.

[geckotheglorious] 28/10/2020 11:11

Someone surely must be running the proverbial slide rule over us??

#Blue Horseshoe loves...............

:)

[mount teide] 28/10/2020 11:09

CAML is likely to be in a net cash position during H1/2021 - yet the current market cap is £290m compared to a market cap of £250m immediately prior to the $403m purchase of Sasa, funded via:

* $120 million senior debt facility with Traxys (4.75% + LIBOR, 5 year term)

* Roll over of estimated $67 million of existing Lynx net debt (5% + LIBOR, 5 years remaining)

* $153.5 million in CAML ordinary shares via an Accelerated Book Build

[zangdook] 28/10/2020 10:33

I'd take a fiver here.

[mount teide] 28/10/2020 10:24

250p would be highly disappointing and well below the potential valuation over a 3-5 year view, considering the projected demand growth over the next decade for copper and the huge market deficit supply forecasts, current multi decade low stock levels, and the extraordinarily operating margins achieved at both Kounrad and Sasa from just $2.50 Copper, $1.00 Zinc and $0.85 Lead, together with the ultra low OPEX and maintaining CAPEX at Kounrad, and very low OPEX and maintaining CAPEX at Sasa.

AIMHO/DYOR

[catsick] 28/10/2020 10:14

Yes cheap takeover of kaz, also held hgm but was an ok price, this is way too cheap, would hope no cheeky bid situation here

[wassapper] 28/10/2020 09:57

KAZ and HGM are both CIS mafia oligarchical stitch-ups.

[garycook] 28/10/2020 09:48

GG,Yes around 250p.Seems fair value.But CAML have been 300p plus in early 2018.

[zangdook] 28/10/2020 09:15

I hope not. On the bright side, KAZ is being taken out by a couple of directors who hold 40% already. Our share register is much more widely spread, so there's less risk. The other miner that I'm aware of being taken out at the moment, HGM, also had quite concentrated share ownership.

[geckotheglorious] 28/10/2020 08:58

Garycook,

Hopefully at a far better premium Caml side.

Kaz taken out relatively cheaply in my view.

[mount teide] 28/10/2020 08:58

At this stage of the copper market cycle a takeover offer at anything under £8.50 a share for Kaz will probably be considered extremely disappointing by most shareholders - £6.40 is just the average price over the last 4 years. Low cost operator Kaz topped out close to £17 at the peak of the last market cycle.

The offer premium to the previous price for Kaz is well below the 50-60% often attracted for high quality assets in the sector at this stage of the commodity cycle. Smacks of eastern European insiders impeccably timing the 'stealing' of the company for much less than its current fair value, never mind potential market value over a 3-5 year view in a copper market with rapidly growing demand that is forecast to be in material deficit for most of this decade.

[zho] 28/10/2020 07:55

Agreed cash offer for KAZ. I stopped following KAZ a few years ago but the price doesn't look great.

[garycook] 28/10/2020 07:54

Bid for KAZ 640p.Could CAML be next ?

[garycook] 28/10/2020 01:31

2 massive buy O trades after hours at 17.15pm yesterday,of 891,385 shares.Interesting !

[pob69] 27/10/2020 15:33

CAML presentation at Proactive on the 12/11 so maybe more news on operations and the dividend by then?

[...]

[mount teide] 23/10/2020 13:34

Low cost Copper and Lead miner CAML will be rubbing their hands at the huge rebound in metal pricing since the Chinese economy got back to work following the March 2020 Covid-19 commodity market sell off lows.

Zinc hit a new 18 month high today of $1.18/lb, up 46% from the March 2020 Covid-19 low.

While Copper is up an incredible 61% from the same March 2020 low to a 29 month high this week at $3.20/lb

[mount teide] 21/10/2020 15:26

Copper now up to $3.215

[qs99] 21/10/2020 14:56

ATYM also looking silly price IMO....have topped up on both, thanks for informative posts by the way

[kael] 21/10/2020 14:42

I agree and am confident that the board will stick by their statements in this. Which is another reason to be patient on this.

[garycook] 21/10/2020 14:07

Kael,Totally agree,but the Divi should be reinstated soon regardless.

[mount teide] 21/10/2020 14:00

The current copper spot price is circa 30% above the average copper price in H1/2020 when the Kounrad copper mine produced a 73% operating margin and, 8.9% above that of Q3/2020.

[kael] 21/10/2020 13:50

The impatient will lose out here. The dividend will come when it's ready. I see zero reason to sell even if there was no dividend. The fundamentals are so strong I'm happy to wait for inevitable rerate or even buyout.

[mount teide] 21/10/2020 12:54

GC...today's buyers?

The volume yesterday when the price dropped circa 3% was 550,000

The volume today so far is less than one tenth that and the share price is up circa 5%

It would be reasonable to expect far more buying volume if your Dividend rumours were correct - what has changed is that copper is up circa 4.5% in barely 24 hours, touching $3.20 this morning.

Would expect CAML will be emptying their copper storage warehouse big time into this pricing!