Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[garycook] 21/10/2020 12:22

wassapper,I own 17,500 CAML shares.No need for anymore thank you.Now today buyers.Must be rumours of dividend being paid soon.

[wassapper] 21/10/2020 11:51

No it's not. The reason the share price is being held back is the ratio of buys v sells and/or the AT manipulation. If you want it to go up quickly them buy some stock!

[garycook] 21/10/2020 07:56

Copper,Lead,& Zinc,well up again,but CAML struggles.The Dividend reinstatement is holding back the share price !

[mount teide] 20/10/2020 19:27

Zinc surging now too, now at $1.15

Nickel, copper prices near new highs as China powers on - Mining.com / 19 October 2020

'MONTHLY DATA SHOWS MOMENTUM BUILDING GOING INTO THE FINAL QUARTER OF 2020 WITH INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION COMING IN WAY ABOVE EXPECTATIONS'

The copper price was once again within sight of more than two-year highs on Monday and nickel reached an 11-month peak after Chinese data showed growth in the world’s second-largest economy is gathering momentum.

On the Comex market, copper for delivery in December added over 1% to $3.1080 a pound ($6,850 a tonne) in brisk trade, with more than 1.2 billion pounds of the most active contract traded by early afternoon in New York.

Monday’s trading brings the bellwether metal within sight of levels last seen in June 2018 and brings the recovery since the height of the covid-19 induced sell-off, which sent the copper price crashing to below $2.00 a pound, to 57%.

The robust numbers from China, which consumes more industrial metals than the rest of the world combined, also lifted nickel prices, which hit $15,815 a tonne in London, the highest since November 2019.

Data released overnight showed China’s economy continued its rapid rebound in the third quarter, with activity across a range of sectors. GDP expansion accelerated to 4.9% during Q3, up from 0.7% in the quarter to end-June.

Metal intensive industries showed the strongest growth, with a further pick-up in industry and construction last quarter, from 4.7% year on year to 6%.

In a note, Capital Economics says monthly data show momentum is building going into the final quarter of 2020.

Industrial production came in way above expectations, rising from 5.6% in August to 6.9% in September compared to the same months last year. Fixed investment expanded 0.8% year-to-date, implying that capital spending grew 7.6% in September.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, Capital Economics Senior China Economist, says the economy is becoming less reliant on investment-led stimulus and that growth will continue to pick-up in the near-term:

“Fiscal policy is set to remain supportive until at least the start of next year, which should keep activity in industry and construction strong. Meanwhile, tightening labour market conditions and improving consumer confidence mean that the recovery in consumption and services activity probably has further to run.”

[mount teide] 20/10/2020 15:48

Copper touches $3.15

[mount teide] 20/10/2020 12:23

Kounrad

'Copper sales during Q3 2020 were 3,988 tonnes, bringing the total for the first nine months of the year to 10,588 tonnes.'

3,412 tonnes in Q4 will deliver 14,000 tonnes for the year, and 7,400t for H2/2020.

38% of Copper sales year to date were made in Q3 with Copper averaging circa $2.96/lb - during H1/2020 copper averaged circa $2.47.

7,400t at a $0.49c premium to the H1/2020 average copper price will generate an additional $8m of operating revenue for Kounrad in H2 over H1, and likely increase the operating margin from 73% up to close to 80% for H2.


Predictably, the shorter's algo's push the price down on a very strong day for the copper price, while copper heavyweight Antofagasta's share price moves in line with strong upward copper price trend.

We should not rule out the possibility the shorter's share price suppression activity could be linked to a company engaged in putting together an opportunistic offer for CAML.

[mount teide] 20/10/2020 11:38

Copper hits a 2.5 year high at $3.12!

[zangdook] 20/10/2020 09:44

The cost of cleanup might knock a penny off that.

[melody9999] 20/10/2020 09:40

Whatever the exact / historic metal prices, CAML reported at end H1 20:

• Cash in the bank as at 30 June 2020 of $44.0 million 2 (31 December 2019: $32.6 million )
• Group net debt as at 30 June 2020 of $58.8 million (31 December 2019: $80.2 million)
• Debt repayments of $19.2 million (H1 2019: $19.2 million)
• Group free cash flow of $21.1 million (H1 2019: $35.5 million)


If the policy is to pay back 30 - 50% of free cash flow. Then with 176M shares, H1 FCF is c 9.2p per share so on these numbers we might expect 3p - 4.5p divi. But they could pay 6.5p, especially as metal prices are rising.

Definitely time they announced something.

[eagleblue1] 19/10/2020 21:40

This is one of the better and more informative boards on this infernal website - let's keep it this way.

[mount teide] 19/10/2020 13:29

pughman....long winded?

I replaced 'now mostly well back above' with 'now mostly well back above the three year average price immediately preceding' ......the Sasa acquisition!

I would call it a clarification as to what I meant.

FYI the average metals prices since the SASA acquisition are considerably above those experienced in the 2 year period at the bottom of the last commodity market cycle in 2015/2016 when copper fell below $2.00 and Zinc and Lead below $0.7, yet even then CAML was still able to generate industry leading operating margins and cash flow.

The market responded to the Chile Copper mine strike action this morning by pushing spot copper back above $3.10.

[pughman] 19/10/2020 12:42

Since SASA was bought, here are CAML's own average lead and zinc prices.
2017 Lead $2401 Zinc$3239
2018 $2170 $2819
2019 $2001 $2497
2020 $1676 $1964(to end of June)
Mt, your long winded alteration of your 09.31 post makes it harder for fellow posters to follow. I don't agree with people posting wrong information and then subsequently altering that post. It's disingenuous and sub Machiavellian.

[wassapper] 19/10/2020 11:33

Gary - CAML board does not need to reinstate the divi for credibility. They have enough credibility already after their returns to shareholders over the last 10 years. This is being held back as MT says. The divi will come. They have said so. Why should the directors rush? I might wait until after the US election.

[swinsco] 19/10/2020 11:33

Thanks Mount. Very telling.

[mount teide] 19/10/2020 11:13

pughman - the average price of Copper, Zinc and Lead in the three year period immediately prior to the acquisition of Sasa (during which the company averaged a 24% CAGR in total shareholders returns), were:

$2.49 - Copper
$0.97 - Zinc
$0.79 - Lead

Today's spot prices are

$3.08 - Copper
$1.12 - Zinc
$0.80 - Lead

Have amended post 3545 accordingly.

[nickwild] 19/10/2020 10:38

what are the prices then and now for copper and zinc

[pughman] 19/10/2020 10:30

MT, your 09,31 post today is misleading. Zinc and Lead prices are not back above where they were when CAML bought SASA. In fact they are well below and have fallen every year since the acquisition. I'm a shareholder and have high hopes for CAML, but your posts are far from balanced. The share price reflects the ongoing Covid and dividend uncertainties which will continue to be a factor for the winter ahead.

[mount teide] 19/10/2020 09:31

In a thin volume market the hedge funds that are short 4.4 million shares will know that with the downside risk of a second wave Covid-19 hanging over the general stockmarket, throwing extra resources at frustrating any material increase in the share price on re-instatement of the dividend (as they did after news of the intention to re-instate the dividend) will probably reap a rich short term reward, in terms of frustrating existing holders and in particular short term momentum traders into selling up and moving on.

We and THEY know very well with copper, zinc and lead prices now mostly well back above the three year average price immediately preceding when CAML bought SASA, their short positions are no longer sustainable considering the current huge cash flow generation, so they have a small and closing window of opportunity left to exit, provided the volume remains modest, by frustrating any share price increase on re-instatement of the dividend. I fully expect them to follow that course of action provided they are not overwhelmed by buying volume.

[garycook] 19/10/2020 01:28

CAML should not have to rely on strike,s in Chile for the share price to progress.CAML need to reinstate the dividend before month end to get any credibility going forward now.

[mount teide] 18/10/2020 22:47

Strike to proceed at the Candelaria mine, Chile, after mediation talks fail.

Lundin Mining Provides Update on Labour Action at Candelaria - 18 October 2020

'Lundin Mining Corporation announced today that despite mediation with the Candelaria AOS Union, which represents approximately 550 workers at its Candelaria operations in Chile, the Company and the Union have failed to reach an agreement. The Union can legally be on strike commencing October 20, 2020. The Candelaria Mine Workers Union continues with its labour action which commenced on October 8, 2020.

Lundin Mining holds health and safety as a top priority in everything we do. Illegal and violent actions promoted under the guise of the legal strike of the Mine Workers Union, and the pending labour action of the Candelaria AOS Union, puts the safety of our Candelaria workforce at risk. Candelaria operations are currently in the process of planning for temporary suspension. Critical works will continue to be executed to protect required onsite personnel, the operation and the environment. The Company sincerely regrets having to take this action and its impact on our workforce, local community, suppliers, customers and many stakeholders.

Previously provided 2020 production, cash cost and capital cost guidance for Candelaria, should no longer be relied upon. Lundin Mining is in strong financial position with a net debt position of approximately $124 million, including cash and equivalents of approximately $222 million, and available credit of approximately $575 million under its revolving credit facility, as at September 30, 2020.

Candelaria is committed to responsible, respectful, and fair negotiations with the best interests of our workers and the sustainability of our business in mind. The previous collective agreement with the Candelaria AOS Union expired on October 5, 2020, after the Union was granted a special extension of the agreement by the Labour Authority which was set to expire on September 30, 2020. Candelaria and the Union subsequently entered into a mediation process in which multiple improved offers were presented to the Union leadership.'

[eagleblue1] 16/10/2020 12:36

I reckon there would be a backlash if they held back on the dividend now - especially as they were prepared to reinstate it in the H1 results, the Sasa leak costs were negligible and copper has been flying - and they position themselves as a company which is keen to pay shareholders back. I think it will come back at between 2.5p and 6p with full restoration at full year results if copper prices hold.

[v11slr] 16/10/2020 12:33

The dividend was suspended because of the failure of the tailings dam not because of Covid. I see no reason for it not to be resumed soon.