Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 07/10/2020 11:32

The shorter's Algos employed the use of 12 separate SINGLE share machine gun AT trades to bring the share price back down from that 166p spike.

Have forwarded further L2 Screenshots to the regulator requesting an investigation ref: share price manipulation.

[mount teide] 06/10/2020 12:33

Following the sharp fall from circa 180p to circa 150p on release of the news of the short term leak from SASA's Tailing Storage Facility - the short position has increased by over half a million shares to 2.3%, presumably in an effort to frustrate the market by keeping a ceiling on the share-price to protect profits.

Surprisingly, for a company with short positions totalling 2.3% there is no notifiable position/s - however, with the harmless threat of a clueless, industry financed regulator, I strongly suspect as I've seen elsewhere, its largely because hedge funds are now utilising ever more ingenious ways to get around that legal requirement.

[mount teide] 05/10/2020 16:46

Strong closing trade 43k @163.4p

[bubloo] 05/10/2020 08:23

"At the time of our 2019 results, we took the difficult decision not to recommend a final dividend given the uncertainties that were facing our business and many others at that time. We have been able to safely mitigate a number of these key risks or seen these naturally recede. Post period end, we have seen a strengthening in metals pricing and continued, consistent operational performance. We had therefore planned to reinstate our dividend. However, given the recent TSF4 leakage, we have decided to delay declaring our interim dividend pending further clarity on the likely cost and timing on rectifying this issue, and we aim to provide an update in the near term."

[bubloo] 05/10/2020 08:16

any idea what the possible dividend could be.

[bubloo] 05/10/2020 08:05

hope dividend on way. I like the transparency and the manner in which they dealt with issue. am I wrong in thinking that this should be back to around 190-200pence, some indication about production figures and possible dividend in the announcement

[simplemilltownboy] 05/10/2020 07:31

Great update, total costs slightly less than the 2 million I forecasted, no real change to FYF. Well done to people who got in on the dip, I will stick ,y neck out again and forecast a divi announcement by the end of October at 6.5 pence. AIMO. GLA

[catsick] 05/10/2020 07:04

So total costs all in from the spill come to 1.5m usd which is less than half a percent of market cap and for that I was lucky to be able to buy in at a 20pct discount.

[mount teide] 03/10/2020 18:31

Supervisors at Escondida, the World's largest copper mine, rejected the company’s final wage offer, raising the risk of strike action.

The miner has requested a five-day mediation period, in the hope that strike action can be avoided. While the mine would keep producing during any potential strike action, the rate of production may slow down.

Earlier this week, mineworkers at the Candelaria copper mine also rejected a final offer in regular wage talks. The outcome of mediation talks at these mines will be watched closely by union members at other copper mines in the nation, who are scheduled for wage talks later this year.

Meanwhile, Peruvian copper mine production in August fell by 2.5% MoM, the first decline in four months.

Source: ING

[eagleblue1] 01/10/2020 15:32

Worth noting that China and the Shanghai Futures Exchange are shut for holidays from today until 8th October, which may make metals trading a little weak and hence introduce a little volatility into CAML for those not looking longer term.

[mount teide] 01/10/2020 14:48

CAML Financial Results Data - 2016 to 2019.

Kounrad Copper Business Unit

2016
56% - EBITDA Margin - EBITDA / $39.1m
C1 Cash Cost $0.43/lb - Fully Inc Cost $1.06/lb
$2.20/lb - Average Copper Sales Price

2017
62% - EBITDA Margin - EBITDA / $63.6m
C1 Cash Cost $0.52/lb
$2.77/lb - Average Copper Sales Price

2018
72% - EBITDA Margin - EBITDA / $66.8m
C1 Cash Cost $0.54/lb
$2.95/lb - Average Copper Sales Price

2019
76% - EBITDA Margin - EBITDA / $61.7m
C1 Cash Cost $0.52/lb
$2.71/lb - Average Copper Sales Price

Production averaged close to 14,000 Tonnes per annum throughout 2016-19

++++++++++++++++++++++

SASA Zinc/Lead Business Unit

2018
64% - EBITDA Margin - EBITDA $71.2m
SASA Zinc Equivalent Cash Cost $ 0.46/lb
$1.29/lb - Ave Zinc Sales Price / $1.01/lb - Ave Lead Sales Price

2019
60% - EBITDA Margin - EBITDA $61.7m
SASA Zinc Equivalent Cash Cost $ 0.47/lb
$1.13/lb - Ave Zinc Sales Price / $0.87/lb - Ave Lead Sales Price

++++++++++++++++++++++

CAML - Kounrad and SASA Business Units Combined

2018
$0.87 - Copper Equivalent C1 Cash Cost
$1.64 - Fully Inclusive Cash Cost
$125.3m - EBITDA
$73.8m - Free Cash Flow
61% - EBITDA Margin
31,459t - Copper Equivalent Production
$38.5m - Debt Repayment
$110.3m - Net Debt

2019
$0.94 - Copper Equivalent C1 Cash Cost
$1.50 - Fully Inclusive Cash Cost
$108.6m - EBITDA
$69.8m - Free Cash Flow
60% - EBITDA Margin
31,233t - Copper Equivalent Production
$38.4m - Debt Repayment
$80.2m - Net Debt

Group average C1 Cash Cost at the lower end of lowest industry quartile (Wood Mac - 2019)

[mount teide] 01/10/2020 12:50

Copper, Zinc and Lead - Historic Average Pricing

Copper

$4,363/t - $1.98/lb - 2016 Commodity Cycle Low

$4,871/t - $2.21/lb - 2016 Average Price
$6,193/t - $2.81/lb - 2017 Average Price
$6,259/t - $2.84/lb - 2018 Average Price
$5,994/t - $2.72/lb - 2019 Average Price

$5,532/t - $2.51/lb - H1/2020 Average Price
$6,589/t - $2.99/lb - H2/2020 Average Price to date
£5,884/t - $2.67/lb - 2020 Average Price to date

$9,918/t - $4.50/lb - Peak price of last commodity cycle(2010) - inflation unadjusted

If Copper averages around the current spot price in Q4/2020, the average price for the year will be circa $2.75/lb - higher than 2019 and only marginally below the recent peak years of 2017/18.

Despite the collapse in Copper pricing during the Q2/2020 onset on the Covid-19 pandemic, the strong price recovery since has lifted the average price to $2.67/lb for 2020, some 2.5% above its 5 year average price.

Since Q2/2020 Lead and Zinc price recovery, although strong, is lagging that of Copper, with average prices in 2020 now up to circa 5.5% and 3.5% below their respective 5 year average prices.

Copper is currently 16% above its 5 year average price, while Zinc has regained parity and lead at 2% below.


AIMHO/DYOR

[mount teide] 01/10/2020 11:37

Doing Business 2020 Report - World Bank Group



In 2018, Kazakhstan ranked 36th out of 189 in the 'Doing Business Report' of the World Bank. By 2020 this had improved to 25.

A ranking alongside Germany, Finland and France, and comfortably ahead of Japan, Switzerland, Holland and Belgium, and well ahead of the EU's Luxembourg tax haven in 72nd place, so beloved of the 400 plus multi nationals that relocated their European Head Offices there, attracted by the 1% Corporation Tax regime created by the Ex Luxembourg PM; the illegal wire tap king and self confessed liar more commonly known today as Europe's most famous drunk, the previous President of the European Commission Jean Claude Juncker.

North Macedonia placed 17th out of 189 in the World Bank Report, with just two EU Nations ahead of them - Sweden and Denmark.

Research carried our by Societe Generale :

'Post independence, Kazakhstan has adopted a series of reforms to liberalise its economy and facilitate foreign investment. The decade of 1999-2009 witnessed FDI multiplying ten-fold, which enabled it to boost oil and gas production.

Between 2005 and 2015, the country attracted USD 215 billion worth of FDI.
Kazakhstan is widely considered to have the best investment climate in the region, and several international companies have established regional headquarters there.'

[return_of_the_apeman] 30/9/2020 16:43

Copper back above $3/lb and cash is rolling in, given the great news on the tailings leak remediation and fine size, confused as to why this is not back above £1.80

Awaiting resumption of divi announcement and looking forward to the income

[serratia] 28/9/2020 18:52

nickwild,

Long shot - are you the guy who studied in Cardiff in the early 70's ?

[nickwild] 28/9/2020 18:07

I once diagnosed zinc deficiency in a young child. Acrodermatitis enteropathica.

[kael] 28/9/2020 16:07

Pretty sure if this material was poured into your local water supply, you would be hesitant about drinking it.Come on...an unintended environmental accident from intensive mining cannot be spun into a positive. Just be thankful it wasn't worse. CAML have been lucky to not have shown to cause more damage and hopefully is a sign that their procedures are robust to minimise the effects. Environmental quality monitoring is an art and this time it's worked in our favour, you can never really be sure or quantify the damage caused after the event in environmental matters, you just hope for the best.

[mount teide] 28/9/2020 12:25

I regularly use Zinc and Magnesium supplements - much cheaper than the air fare!

Helps me sleep like a log!

Humans are unable to store Zinc naturally, as we do with other vitamins and minerals, so need to consume zinc regularly, both through our daily diet and via mineral supplements.

[lord gnome] 28/9/2020 12:02

Catsick damn autocorrect strikes again.

[lord gnome] 28/9/2020 12:00

Nice try carsick. Please keep going. Zinc is also vital for male reproductive systems. If you're having problems in that department take a trip over there and drink the water.

[catsick] 28/9/2020 11:48

If you have deposits of upto 20% zinc in the rocks in the area then there are going to be elevated levels of zinc in the water anyway rather than coming from pollution, also worth bearing in mind that zinc is needed by our bodies to fight viruses and many people are zinc deficient due to modern farming methods and that has not helped them at all with covid , this river water may be the cure for covid!

[mount teide] 28/9/2020 10:46

TSF4 Incident - Highly impressive and professional response from the CAML management.

The RNS suggests the impact to production is likely to be very modest - and may well result in the existing guidance being maintained, albeit with an actual result towards the lower end of the range.

An announcement over the next month or so confirming the reinstatement of the dividend looks nailed on following today's update.


AIMHO/DYOR

[3ootuk] 28/9/2020 09:00

It is interesting to see the level of pollution in the general area from upstream of our works, and our current emissions are within consent limits. Any clean up now will also be cleaning up historic contamination, which is a good thing.