Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[shieldbug] 08/9/2020 18:56

A year ago CAML was trading at 188p - a tad more than today's price.

A year on I would expect another $38m of debt to have been paid off. Copper and zinc are trading well above last years price. So while the price has weakened the value of the business has undoubtedly risen.

[wassapper] 08/9/2020 10:56

A huge 10% spread earlier this morning. Just managed to add a few at 179 once it got sensible. I think their results will be very good. Like all miners, they are likely to have increased costs, but the metals prices are with them. CAML has paid good dividends even when copper prices were lower. I think we shall see a restoration and maybe a special in a few months if things continue to settle down.

[mount teide] 07/9/2020 09:13

Interesting - yet to see a single AT Trade this morning - and most ordinary buy trades are going through above 185p.

[pol123] 06/9/2020 12:40

Outlook should be cautiously optimistic, H2 prices have firmed significantly (Copper & Zinc) Chile continues to struggle, this should underpin prices in CU for months to come. Then there is likely to be big infrastructure spend as economies fight to keep economies ticking over.

[mount teide] 04/9/2020 12:17

CAML's ultra low OPEX and CAPEX mining businesses are highly resilient to low metal prices as they demonstrated throughout the 8 year copper market recession.


At the copper market recession low during H1/2016, copper averaged $2.12 in H1/2016 and CAML received an average sales price of $2.22.

CAML's H1/2016 results were:

H1 2016 EBITDA of $17.4m (H1 2015: $16.0m) and a margin of 56% (H1 2015: 53%)

• H1 profit before tax up 49% vs. H1 2015 to $15.0m (H1 2015: $10.1m)

• 2016 interim dividend of 5.5 pence per ordinary share (H1 2015: 4.5 pence)


During H1/2020 Copper has averaged circa $2.48 against $2.12 in H1/2026

During Zinc and Lead's Q4/2015 - Q1/2016 recession low period:

Zinc averaged circa $0.93 in H1/2020 against $0.75 in the Q4/15-Q1/16 period

Lead averaged circa $0.80 in H1/2020 against $0.75 in the Q4/15-Q1/16 period


The ultra low OPEX for both businesses has remained remarkably stable for many, many years and is expected to continue doing so.

[simplemilltownboy] 04/9/2020 11:33

Unsure on why polar reduces their holding but they didn't sell out. If the divi is restored albeit at a lower level on this interim I think the share price will continue to move upwards given the commodity prices. I also averaged down. I suspect the half year results will be poor given the commodity prices over H1 but there should be insight into H2. I'm a LTH. GLA

[skeptic1] 04/9/2020 11:24

Of course that should read I DID average down!

[skeptic1] 04/9/2020 10:01

Fair play, profit is profit. I'm a long holder here, and was happy buying in when we were 230+. I can't see any material change which means we aren't at that price now. I didn't average down so I'm around evens at the moment. I know the covid situation is unfavorable, but if I'm not mistaken, the situation in both Macedonia and Kazakhstan is much improved since the last update, leading me to infer a positive update is due...?!

[tomleafs] 04/9/2020 09:49

I can't speak for Polar but for me personally I recently sold my holding at around £1.76 after slowly building the position up since March at an average price of under £1.40. I was happy to take the 25% capital gain and redeploy it in other companies that are yielding 8% but didn't cut the dividend like CAML did. Having said that, I think I left money on the table here and it should be £2+ with commodity prices and money printing the way it is currently. Good luck to existing holders, I may even rejoin if the results on Sep 16th are super.

[skeptic1] 04/9/2020 09:35

Any thoughts on the polar reduction, folks? It's hard to get debate elsewhere other than 'bad news' coming lol'. For me it's just the way big players work - reducing as/when a company no longer aligns with their portfolio. There has been some big selling though...

[mount teide] 01/9/2020 11:31

L2 - the manipulation is breathtaking - have taken a number of L2 screen shots since 0800hrs and emailed them to the regulator with a letter of complaint.

[mount teide] 01/9/2020 11:15

Added a further 20,000 this morning.

With the Fed recently stating they're going to let Inflation rise above their 2% long term target, stronger commodity prices over the next few years is virtually nailed on at this stage of the commodity market cycle, aided by a likely strong global economic recovery tailwind post the Covid-19 pandemic.

[riotinted_specs] 01/9/2020 11:08

This link might work better with PCs https://youtube.com/watch?v=rbqw9wd6i0oWhich qualify as A++ setups! Global List:LSE:ARSLSE:ATYMLSE:CAMLLSE:CEYLSE:EUALSE:FRESLSE:GGPLSE:GPMLSE:HOCLSE:JLPLSE:KEFILSE:POLYLSE:SOLGLSE:UFO

[riotinted_specs] 01/9/2020 10:46

Interesting review of CAML by a global mining expert reviewing a mixture of LSE mining stocks. KEFI, HOC, UFO are by far the best. UFO and HOC might be of particular interest to silver bugs and the derisked KEFI for gold and copper. https://youtu.be/rbqw9wd6i0

[mount teide] 01/9/2020 09:00

380,000 @ 177p mid price 'O' trade

[the deacon] 01/9/2020 08:26

Last time I saw the price being held down artificially like this was prior to the SASA acquisition

[mount teide] 01/9/2020 08:16

L2 - manipulator's algorithms hard at work from the opening bell desperately trying to limit any further rise this morning - nevertheless, most 'O' trades are going through at 179.4p, despite the offer price being held at 176p!

[garycook] 01/9/2020 07:48

Then CAML should be well up this morning,if not then being manipulated again !

[mount teide] 01/9/2020 07:41

Copper, Zinc and Lead pricing continuing to surge this morning - setting further 1-2 year highs driven by Covid-19 production performance restrictions, decade low stock levels, and panic buying in China, SE Asia and India.

Performance since H1/2020 Covid-19 low
+55% - Copper - $3.08/lb
+45% - Zinc - $1.17/lb
+28% - Lead - $0.91/lb

[mount teide] 01/9/2020 07:36

Copper hits a new 2.5 year high at $3.08

[mount teide] 31/8/2020 10:53

Copper hits $3.06 for the first time since early 2018.

Since 2014, it's only been above this level for a short period in 2017/2018, after rebounding from the brutal 8 year recession low made in 2016.

[rogash] 30/8/2020 07:47

Many thanks Mount Teide.

[mount teide] 29/8/2020 17:24

Rog.....The FCA only reports notifiable short positions ie those of 0.5% and over.

Euroclear reports the collective total of all short positions whatever the size of each position.

Currently there is not any notifiable short positions in CAML, but there were smaller sized short positions totalling 2.07% at the end of July. Next report for the end of August is due in about a week.

[rogash] 29/8/2020 16:14

where is your source for the shorts please? There is none on the FCA list.