Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[eagleblue1] 28/9/2020 08:36

Mostly positive RNS as others have mentioned - key questions will be the impact to zinc/lead production, impact on dividend and when TSF4 can resume - but it looks as if CAML is managing this really professionally, and any loss in earnings will be far less than the drop in share price justified. Still cheap at £1.60 imo. LTH

[simplemilltownboy] 28/9/2020 07:46

I reckon the divi will be reinstated when the clean up is completed and costed. I'm guessing a divi announcement towards the end of October. Management have dealt with this extremely well and very quickly. GLA, great time to top up IMO

[garycook] 28/9/2020 07:41

Just need to re-instate the dividend now !

[gisjob2] 28/9/2020 07:39

Looks good to me, TF4 repaired, still mining, small delay before processing resumes, very little pollution to deal with and a tiny fine.

Management have dealt with this unfortunate event well IMHO.

Surely doesn't justify the 30p share price drop !

[v11slr] 28/9/2020 07:36

Unless production was running at capacity previously it's now just deferred not lost.

[simplemilltownboy] 28/9/2020 07:32

Good update this morning IMO. Dam fixed with some remedial work which will take a week. Ore still being mined but production at Sasa ceased until the TF4 is back on line and approved. My guess is that this incident will probably cost 2 million in total costs and loss of production. Finger in the air job but seems reasonable given all the engineers and loss of production and clean up. GLA

[loafingchard] 27/9/2020 21:24

Cheers Eagle , Jeff. Looks to be fair and reasonable, it appears fortune favoured the brave buyers on the day the news dropped. That said, the price has fallen back most of the bounce.

[jeff h] 27/9/2020 13:50

Sanction imposed on the SASA Mine

After the water inspector of the State Inspectorate of Environment offered a mediation procedure in accordance with the law, during the inspection and ascertained a misdemeanor, the legal entity SASA Mine and the State Inspectorate of Environment signed an agreement for payment of a fine by borrowing for nine measures. agreement of the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning.

Namely, for the committed misdemeanor leakage of waste material from the Sasa mine in Kamenicka Reka, which happened on the 14th of this month, according to this agreement, the SASA mine is obliged to:

1) To clean the parts of the riverbed of the river Kamenica from waste material and to take it to the landfill for disposal of the mine, on the basis of previously provided consent, permit from the MoEPP,

2) To perform intervention cleaning of the tailings from the well zone of Kamenica in order to prevent further pollution of the groundwater that supplies the wells for water supply to part of the population of the municipality of Makedonska Kamenica, and then to continue cleaning the the riverbed of the river,

3) To clean the intake from the sediment of a small hydro power plant that is under tailings no. 4 in order to put into operation the water intake for electricity production,

4) To stabilize the facility tailings dam no. 4 and to replace the removed material with tailings sand with a suitable material with the same or higher strength characteristics. The rehabilitation of the tailings dam should be according to a technical solution prepared by SASA Mine on the basis of documentation provided in accordance with law,

5) To remove the geosynthetic coating in the part of the contacts where the hydro-sealing dam no. 4 rests, in order to prevent illegal contact filtration,

6) To envisage additional measures for operation with the tailings, primarily increasing the length of the beach from tailings mud which will minimize the possibility of re-contact filtration,

7) To provide a temporary solution if there is discharge of turbid water through the overflow collector due to the safety of the dam where the turbid water is kept in an existing tank and with a pumping station to be returned to the technological process

8) To act in accordance with Article 198 of the Law on Waters, ie according to the recommendations of the Annual Report for analysis and stability of dams prepared with a report for analysis and stability of dams for 2019, which should be approved in accordance with Article 195 of the Law on Waters.

In addition, a fine in the amount of EUR 50,000 was imposed on the legal entity Rudnik SASA, and a fine in the amount of EUR 15,000 in MKD equivalent was imposed on the responsible entity.



.... (5) above sounds interesting as I think CEO Nigel Robinson hinted at this in a recent presentation.

[eagleblue1] 27/9/2020 11:49

I have to admit I found it posted elsewhere, I was surprised it hadn't been posted here!Agreed re the RNS - the dividend will be important. In a period where dependable yields/are hard to find, a reinstatement will bring CAML back into the category of a solid, long term hold.

[simplemilltownboy] 27/9/2020 11:40

Great find Eagle. Might top up on Monday depending on the RNS and share price

[eagleblue1] 27/9/2020 07:40

The North Macedonian environment ministry has fined Sasa €65,000 ($75,000/£60,000), and obliged the mine to carry out a clean-up operation. If the TSF4 repair time of 1-2 weeks is accurate and not shockingly expensive (the period was suggested in a CAML RNS), then it is hard to see how the share price drop from 180 to 150 was justified, particularly in light of a solid set of results, prospective dividend reinstatement and, even with a small dip, higher commodity prices than pre-Covid. https://seenews.com/news/n-macedonias-environment-regulator-fines-sasa-mine-for-tailings-leakage-715001

[divmad] 26/9/2020 06:52

What was with all those weird small odd lot traders yesterday?

[warranty] 25/9/2020 21:07

Well let’s just hope it is 1 to 2 weeks MT because if it isn’t we can expect this to fall much further. Good news that it’s fixed however should quickly push us back towards recent highs. Should it fall though, I’d be tempted to add because it will surely only be a temporary problem anyway. Famous last words!!

[mount teide] 25/9/2020 15:43

S/P - At the current metal pricing CAML's cash flow generation is extremely strong - I strongly suspect it's only a matter of time before the market catches on and greed rears its ugly head.

From the manipulation of the Level 2 Order book, I would not be surprised if the 2% short position crew is behind the latest retrace from 165p - taking advantage of the uncertainty generated by the estimated 1-2 week repair of the tailings facility.

[swinsco] 25/9/2020 11:01

To stop the rot, the tailings facility will need to be up and running soon. Poor share price performance over the last few years.

[mount teide] 21/9/2020 16:34

Unsurprisingly, VSA's target price for CAML is exactly the percentage progress made by copper heavyweight Antofagasta since the April Covid-19 low.

[simplemilltownboy] 21/9/2020 15:15

Thanks Zho, not a great day but the value so this company will shine through. I note copper is still above 3 dollars, just need to fix the tailings issue and reinstate the divi for this to move forward

[zho] 21/9/2020 13:24

VSA Capital Market Movers - Central Asia Metals

We reiterate our Buy recommendation and target price of 219p which implies 36% upside.

[mount teide] 18/9/2020 20:30

Copper hits $3.11/lb - highest level for 2.5 years.

CAML - with Copper equivalent production of circa 30,000 tonnes per year and averaging a fully inclusive Copper equivalent Cash Cost of circa $1.45/lb over the last 2 years - for every $0.01 increase in the copper price (assuming an equivalent pro rata percentage increase in the Zinc and Lead price) over the H1/2020 $2.44 average price - CAML will generate additional Cash Flow of $0.33m in H2/2020 over that achieved in H1/2020.

With Copper to date averaging $0.49/lb higher in H2/2020 over H1/2020 - this is equivalent to $16.2m additional cash flow over H1/2020($32.4m on an annual basis).

At an average of the current Copper price of $3.11, it is equivalent to an additional cash flow of $22.15m in H2/2020 ($44.3m a year).

CAML achieved free cash flow of $21.1m in H1/2020 (H1 2019: $35.5m).

[garycook] 18/9/2020 01:58

Central Asia Metals: Berenberg reiterates buy with a target price of 218.0p.

[garycook] 18/9/2020 01:57

Central Asia Metals: Berenberg reiterates buy with a target price of 218.0p.

[wassapper] 17/9/2020 10:55

S93 - funds are not moving away from mining. Some may do but other are not. Buffet just bought in right? It is a truism that if you can't grow it you have to mine it. The green future cannot happen without minerals.

The better message is as per Musk's recent call for "environmentally friendly Nickel". The future lies with the better managed companies as MT says.

[ayl30] 17/9/2020 10:02

Topped up this am

[mount teide] 17/9/2020 09:55

S93 - I'm all for the move towards ESG Investing by funds - as it means well managed mining and O&G companies will likely attract more and higher quality investment fund cash.

In this respect open, transparent, professionally managed companies like CAML are likely to benefit over the longer term.

[melody9999] 17/9/2020 09:52

Fair comment Spangle. Actually I have been impressed by the speed at which CAML management have reacted - they clearly have a very good / close relationship with the authorities to gain authorisation to use TSF3.2 so quickly.

But I did note todays RNS stressed that the cause of the incident must be fully understood - no more than I would expect from CAML.