Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[elbrus55] 11/10/2024 01:49

Not sure what role the FCA would have. Centamin is not a regulated or authorised UK financial services company. It is a mining company and based in Jersey, not the UK.Due to their London listing, they follow the UK Corporate Governance Code which is set by the FRC which is associated with the accountancy profession.

[beeezzz] 10/10/2024 20:13

Looks like the drift lower was just after dividend payment....may get back to 154p, I feel this going through, it stinks, will probably sell up.

[sotolo] 10/10/2024 19:46

The majority of Cey shares are held by large institutional investors, small investors hold a relatively small percentage of the company’s shares. It is the large investors who will decide (have decided) this bid, not us. They are likely keen to get around 20% above the price before the bid, and the market is saying they will support the bid that will go through.

[larry laffer] 10/10/2024 17:41

elbrus55

I understand all the points you make and can't disagree with them.

What I'm trying to seed with the FCA is to tighten regulation by adopting a system that completely isolates directors of any company from any hint that they may well benefit more by selling the company, in this case, at a disadvantage to the shareholder. One way of doing that is to lock the director more securely into the company they are a director of. Which is what Salaries, Bonus & Lock in periods were supposed to do. Horgan et al were certainly well compensated for their efforts.

Just as an example would the directors be wholly supportive of an offer if they didn't benefit more by changing their employer to the offeree. Supposing the new position was assistant CEO, Lower Salary & Lower bonuses. Which is just about a given with AngloGolds form.

We rely too much on integrity when unfortunately the only thing that seems to work is strict regulation.

Is it naive to think that a director isn't influenced by the offeree when they could be their future employer.

[elbrus55] 10/10/2024 15:35

Not sure what your intention is there.When you acquire the shares in a Company by takeover, it doesn't change the directors appointments within the acquisition company. Once you have shareholder control you can decide to terminate some directors subject to necessary compensation, keep some others, promote others. There should be controls in place to prevent any major conflicts of interests. Of course, the acquirer may tell existing management they are fantastic prior to the bjd and will have a great career with them - but that sort of assurance is not legally binding.There are good reasons why an acquirer may want to keep some of the existing directors and other staff they have knowledge and expertise that can be very valuable.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 10/10/2024 14:46

Nice move this afternoon. AU is up but we are up significantly more. Perhaps, assuming they are allowed to look at it, the early voting has successfully delivered a message to the CEY BoD.

[larry laffer] 10/10/2024 14:45

@ £1.73 per Centamin share it might muster enough votes to make it close.

Most retail investors in the uk seem to want to avoid a US shareholding. I don’t mind too much if I can’t find a uk share with a decent divi and a potential for an increasing share price.

I’m currently looking at the tax position in respect of divi’s and capital gains, not that I am expecting any share price improvement or divi in/from AngloGold shares anytime soon, but as usual with tax rules and money it’s complicated.

Just as an aside, I am constructing a letter of inquiry to the FCA in respect of the current rules about potential employment of company director’s subsequent to completion of a takeover. My view I express in the letter is that a current director of Centamin should be prevented by law in taking any paid employment with the offeree ,or a wholly owned or part owned subsidiary, for a period of X years (10 minimally), after the offer expires. In those circumstances they cannot be viewed as truly independent and would need to be marginalised for a like period after the offer expires. The offeree would be prevented from making a further offer for 12 months as per the current rules.

The only problem I have with that is the FCA won’t keep anyone informed of the progress in any enquiries they make so you just have to wait it out.

[tnt99] 10/10/2024 13:36

They will need to increase the offer if this is going to fly

[larry laffer] 10/10/2024 09:22

Quite right beeezzz, they are cash negative by a massive amount.

The share price is at a level they have only achieved 3 times in the past 5 years. Way above their average and way beyond expectations. The next most likely move if they complete the takeover will be a 20% drop IMO.

Several court cases unresolved, including some where the other side is the state bodies. Their estimate of remediation should the court cases go against them is way more Thant the $200m dollars they will remove from the Centamin cash register.

Everyone should vote NO to the takeover.

[beeezzz] 10/10/2024 08:46

They don't have any money there buying this on share issue and loans, it's a useless company badly run IMO...

[elbrus55] 10/10/2024 03:31

My speculation is that AU will enhance their offer by c.10% and it will then likely go through. Most bidders keep 10% in their back pocket on an initial offer. It should be very easy to do, a quick board meeting and a change to one number in the offer document. Don't think it would greatly delay the timetable. The only real barrier is if they think it would be too much dilution for their own shareholders. Maybe Centamin board will find some good operational news to help justify an increase.Just my speculation, of course there are other possible outcomes. I guess you should be able your proxy vote instruction up until c.27 October if you wanted to.

[zangdook] 09/10/2024 09:24

I voted against but have since dumped about half, more because I wanted money elsewhere than because I was afraid of anything here. I'll keep half in case it's voted down because a) I like CEY and b) it may prompt a better offer. If it's voted through I'll probably dump the rest, not really interested in Anglogold or in NY-listed shares in general.

I presume they can track share trades and cancel some of the votes I cast.

[harry_david] 09/10/2024 08:31

ACT, you are right, if the bid fails it is a sign that a lot of shareholders are hanging out for more. Normally when this happens there is a slight setback whilst everybody considers their position. That includes the bidder. I have quite a large holding and will vote against unless Egypt does something unexpected in the war. Otherwise current gold prices work more in our favour than Anglo's.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 09/10/2024 07:34

Folk have to decide what they have to lose if they vote this down. Really not a lot, with quite possibly more to gain, IMO.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 08/10/2024 19:13

Down a bit, but nothing drastic.

[beeezzz] 08/10/2024 16:35

ACT - So where will the share price go up or down if takeover fails?

[larry laffer] 08/10/2024 16:31

Performance since offer date

gold up 3.7%

AngloGold down 11.5%

Every other miner up between 1.6% and 20% (not including Centamin)

Centamin cash offer equivalent now 145.25p

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 08/10/2024 16:13

PoG is not helping our cause.

[juju44] 08/10/2024 15:33

Shanta was stolen thanks to board lies and corruption. This is similar

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 08/10/2024 14:35

In theory AU should recover significantly if it wins, but it is not a company I like or want to be a shareholder of for long, if at all. I am still hoping that something more can be squeezed out of AU, Shanta-style, or that someone like B2Gold steps in.

[rachael777] 08/10/2024 13:26

Call me stupid but why aren’t Anglogold Ashanti buying shares at this price - are they not allowed ?

[1gw] 08/10/2024 09:14

beezzz - personally I think it will go through unless either a counter-bid emerges or the premium to the GDX relative to the 9th September position becomes much smaller.

We're now 1 month post-offer and just over 2 weeks away from the deadline for receiving proxy votes and there's no sign at all, that I can see, of any institutions publicly arguing against the bid. The CEY price is maintaining a very small discount to the bid price, even if it seems to have moved back to the 1%-2% range yesterday from the sub-1% range it had got to earlier.

I think institutions voting for the bid and intending to keep the AU paper will convince themselves that the AU price will largely recover its post-offer discount to the GDX once the market sees evidence that AU management can integrate the CEY assets and deliver cost synergies. i.e. they will look beyond what is now a relatively small premium to the GDX.

In terms of where the price goes if the vote goes against the deal, without a counter-bid materialising, who knows? I would guess somewhere close to where it was in relation to the GDX on 9th September - so on yesterday's close that looked to me to be around 128, and that would be a bit lower this morning. You could argue for higher (AU might sweeten or someone else might make an approach) or lower (management lost credibility by agreeing the deal and then not delivering a "yes" vote, Middle East discount to GDX given the location of CEY's main asset and developments in the region since the 9th Sept).

[juju44] 08/10/2024 07:30

Bid less attractive by the day but small punters wont change what the suits want

[larry laffer] 08/10/2024 06:33

ACT


And take into account the Q3 stellar result that Horgan indicated was about to be revealed. He only gave the result for the first 2 months of this quarter.

Let’s just hope they haven’t held any gold sales back in the quarter. 🤬

We have had “timing” issues declared before.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 07/10/2024 22:32

"SP will surely drop to between a £1 - £1.20 range"Why? Look where it was prior to the announcement. Look where PoG was.