Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[harry_david] 04/10/2024 07:59

I agree Larry

[larry laffer] 04/10/2024 07:31

Harry

Hopefully it has no chance anyway.

If anyone creates a pro’s & Cons table for this offer it becomes pretty obvious the offer should fail.

Institutions don’t seem to have much enthusiasm for it.

I’m voting the offer down and then I’m asking for Horgan’s “retirement221;.

[harry_david] 04/10/2024 06:42

If the gold price keeps rising, given the US dollar problems it should, the current offer has no hope unless increased.

[1gw] 03/10/2024 20:21

LL - it is absolutely typical that the acquiror's stock falls when an acquisition is announced, while the target stock rises.



So it is highly likely that this was anticipated by both AU and CEY management. Both will also likely anticipate that the fall will start to unwind post-completion if AU can execute well on integration.

In terms of Ghana galamsey, is that a "material adverse change" sufficient to cause Cey to try to renegotiate? Although the story appeared in the Ghana press, I can't see any post-offer SEC filing about it, so presumably not deemed material in that sense.

[1gw] 03/10/2024 18:34

Occam's razor?

It's possible that the 50:50 probabilities just balance to give the offer price, as per your post 59891, but that feels rather contrived. From memory the cey price traded at 2-3% discount to the offer fairly soon after it was made. Then it moved to 1-2% and today it was under 1%. That feels like completion uncertainty dissipating to me.

But we'll know soon enough.

[elbrus55] 03/10/2024 17:54

The share price is just the share price It is just your assertion that it is tracking the AU offer. The fact that it roughly matches, based on tiny trading volume provides little support for your assertion. As i said before there are 7 degrees of freedom here.There are an infinite number of other possibilities to explain the share price movement. It is unlikely that an offer supported by management that looked before OK is still OK after the problems in Ghana. Did you read about the problems in Ghana?.

[larry laffer] 03/10/2024 17:27

Rose_By_Another_Name

Centamin's share price is tracking the falls in AngloGolds share price, hence why the offer for Centamin is now circa 150p.

Mone of that changes the fact that they made a low ball offer which at the time valued Centamin stock at 163p.

Every other miner is up since the offer date except AngloGold. Why do you think that is. Manipulation/Shorting or some other reason.

The basic fact is if this offer completes at today's prices Centamin shareholders will only receive 150p cash equivalent per share. If you hold you are being robbed blind.

AngloGold made their offer when gold was 5% lower so there should be no argument that they undervalued Centamin just on that basis alone.

[rose_by_another_name] 03/10/2024 15:20

That equivalent varies with the share price of the suitor.
There is very little cash component.

[elbrus55] 03/10/2024 14:56

The share price of 150p might be better viewed as50% probabilty of 135p if offer fails +50% probaility of 165p if offer is enhancedI doubt the current offer will get through the vote. (You are not voting for it, I'm not voting for it...) It might have just about made sense to management/shareholders when CEY agreed it, but not now.The fact the probility weighted valhe adds to the current share price provides very little information about the likely success of the current offer.

[elbrus55] 03/10/2024 14:47

The offer looks unlikely to go through, to me, without a c. 10% enhancement

[1gw] 03/10/2024 14:46

Looks to me like since immediately prior to the offer (i.e. close on 9th Sep), CEY is up 25% and GDX (gold miners ETF) is up 7%.

CEY seems to be trading at over 99% of the offer price today.

Feels like a done deal, but you never know.

[corrected to compare at 9th Sep close rather than 6th Sep]

[larry laffer] 03/10/2024 14:21

Since the firm offer date

Gold is up 5%

AngloGold Ashanti is down 8%........all other miners are up between 1% to 13%

The cash equivalent on the offer date was £1.63 per Centamin Share

Today if the offer goes through you will only get £1.50 per share. Doropo,ABC & Nubian Shield EDX all thrown in for nowt.

The "BOT" is still on here arguing its a great deal. (Trumpesque).

Even if you only add the uptick in Gold to Centamins share price at the date of offer it would make the centamin share price today of 125p.

Take into account the Q3 result, Only 2 months declared so far, and you aint getting a good deal for your money.

I'm going to Vote the offer down and then Horgan out.

[stevea171] 03/10/2024 08:02

CEY holders may wish to take a look here if they are still invested with the share price moving in a 12p range but no counter offers to date.

AAZ Investment Opportunity.
AAZ. Opportunity to invest before significant share price appreciation in the coming months and years (5 bagger potential) as it executes its low cost plans to become a mid tier copper/gold producer from defined deposits under its 100% owned leases.

Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ). Sp 92-98p. Mkt Cap £108 million. Broker Target Price: 308p.

Azerbaijan based gold/copper/silver miner with production since 2009.



AIM listed at 77p in 2005 with only 15 million new shares issued since then to minimise dilution (114 million shares now).

High powered and highly qualified Board and managers own 41% of the company fully aligning them with shareholders.

The company is at a discount due to a partial shut down for a year that has now been lifted. The share price should return to historic levels c. 135p initially as progress is confirmed and then much higher as the market takes on board and responds to 4 new mines starting up - the new copper/gold mine at Gilar coming on stream in December, a new $130 million highly profitable mine at Demirli next year and plans move forward to become a mid tier producer from development of XarXar and Garadag.

Profits are set to rocket from next year onwards, especially from the start up of operations at the low cost copper mine at Demirli that has just a maximum $5 million to be spent to bring it on line.

Set to increase production from approx an artificially reduced 18k GEO this year

to 70-75k+ GEO in 2025, incl new mine Gilar

to 150k GEO in 2026, incl new mine Demirli

to 200k GEO in 2027, incl new mine XarXar

to 250k GEO in 2029. incl new mine Garadag

Low Net debt of $12.1 million at 30/6/24 which should be paid off next year.

Can finance new mines development from FCF and local bank finance at low rates.

Traditionally has paid significant dividends 2x yearly.

[1gw] 02/10/2024 11:28

I'd say daily declarations indicate a general lightening up of positions, but nothing very major. On my numbers, I count 5 who have reduced by 20% or more of their opening declaration (Ninety One UK, Norges Bank, Man Group, Franklin Resources, Arcadian) and only 1 who has increased by more than 2%, which is Blackrock. As Blackrock is the biggest holder who has so far declared and has increased by 16%, that offsets quite a bit of the reductions.

I ignore the players who are largely hedged in this analysis (Barclays, Soc Gen, Bank of Nova Scotia & Zhaojin).

I haven't seen an OPD or 8.3's from Van Eck. Has anyone?

[zangdook] 02/10/2024 10:16

Thanks. I ought to have done a little reading before I asked...

[1gw] 02/10/2024 10:10

The GM is on 28th October and the Scheme Court Hearing is not expected to be until around 20th November, so plenty of time between those 2 dates. Things will happen fast after the Scheme Court Hearing though (in a success case) with the last day of dealings in CREST expected to be the day after the Scheme Court Hearing and the suspension of dealings on the LSE happening before the open on the 2nd day after the Scheme Court Hearing - according to the timetable in the Scheme Document.

Management's rationale for recommending the deal is given in point 5 (page 24 of the Scheme Document) of the chair's letter.

[zangdook] 02/10/2024 09:59

No voting available from Hargreaves Lansdown or IG.

Will the results be announced in time for those who don't want dodgy American shares to dump their CEY before trading is suspended, I wonder. (if the deal goes through)

[beeezzz] 02/10/2024 09:40

Larry - Thanks, It looks like share price is shareholders selling up get out before deal or Budget which is a bit woolly also...

Which broker??

[1gw] 02/10/2024 09:39

"The Court Meeting and the Centamin General Meeting to approve the Scheme (and the steps contemplated by the Scheme) are scheduled to be held at 10:00 a.m. and 10:15 a.m. (or as soon thereafter as the Court Meeting concludes or is adjourned) respectively, each on 28 October 2024 at The Royal Yacht, Weighbridge, St Helier, Jersey, JE2 3NF."

[keyno] 02/10/2024 09:34

I've just voted. Broker is II.

I thought you had sold, LL?

Edit: must be thinking of someone else..........

[rose_by_another_name] 02/10/2024 09:32

Invitations to vote are out from some brokers.

[larry laffer] 02/10/2024 09:20

beeezzz

When I spoke to my broker yesterday they told me that they had only just had some of the paperwork.

They didn’t have any firm dates from Centamin for anything. He said it was all a bit vague. 🙄

No doubt something will turn up somewhere and we can all vote it down.

Institutions aren’t falling over themselves to declare their intentions.

Daily declarations don’t indicate any trend one way or another.

[rose_by_another_name] 02/10/2024 07:32

Maybe not SHA.