Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[tnt99] 07/10/2024 20:39

My view it is unlikely to be voted through if the asgold share price continues to fall at this rate at 1.48 this is no go from me But I'm hopeful another buyer will appear so holding on till they show their hand come on barrick you know it makes sense

[beeezzz] 07/10/2024 20:26

1gw - Do you think the deal will go through, it's a gamble if deal fails share price will surely drop to between a £1 - £1.20 range.

Has any institutional shareholder come out in support or not supporting, there seems very little news on which way this will go..

[larry laffer] 07/10/2024 20:10

1gw

"how do they justify to themselves voting down a deal which has been recommended by CEY management and gives them a clear premium at the moment"

How about these comments to justify rejecting the derisory offer

Jochen Tilk, the Chair of AngloGold Ashanti, said: "offers enormous geological potential....."

Alberto Calderon, the Chief Executive Officer of AngloGold Ashanti, said: "to realise the significant upside in centamin........."

James Rutherford, the Chair of Centamin, said: "to develop the country's significant geological potential........"

Martin Horgan, the Chief Executive Officer of Centamin, said: "underlines the Tier 1 status of Sukari as a "safe, low-cost and large-scale gold producer. Sukari is strategically well placed within the emerging Arabian Nubian Shield........"

And after you have taken that lot in you might have a look at the real value, in cash terms, of the AngloGold offer. For each Centamin share the shareholders will only receive £1.48 at todays AU share price and USD/GBP Exchange rate not the £1.63 they put in the offer document.

Vote NO - you know it makes sense.

[1gw] 07/10/2024 18:45

CEY still looks to me to be 14% or so up against GDX (gold miners ETF) since just before the AU deal was announced. And AU down a bit more than that against GDX.

If the deal is voted down on 28th by CEY shareholders, without a counter-bid appearing, presumably CEY would lose most of that current premium to GDX - maybe a bit less if traders decided AU might sweeten their bid, maybe a bit more if traders assigned an additional Middle East risk factor to CEY given regional developments since the bid.

AU's own underperformance against GDX since announcing the bid, however much management expected a bit of a markdown, might make it difficult for them to justify much of a sweetener (in fact their major shareholders might see it as a get out of jail card and now that they know about the bid they are unlikely to be shy in lobbying AU about next steps in the event of a "no" vote).

So that's the main problem I see for the CEY institutional holders in voting no - how do they justify to themselves voting down a deal which has been recommended by CEY management and gives them a clear premium at the moment, given the uncertainty over whether AU would in fact sweeten the bid?


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[1gw] 07/10/2024 18:13

A bit of excitement on the 8.3's with someone apparently moving 18.7m shares held with Schroders on a discretionary basis to Blackrock. They appear to have gone into the Blackrock pot for which Blackrock doesn't have voting rights but does have investment discretion.

So it looks at first sight as though Schroders is cashing out and Blackrock doubling down, but in reality presumably someone has just decided to move their mandate from one company to the other, taking the shares with them.

[larry laffer] 07/10/2024 16:05

All miners getting smashed today......

Some more than others.

Gold up 5% since the firm offer

AngloGold down 9% since offer date

Every other gold miner up by an average 9% since offer day (Centamin not included)

Endeavour who may lose their operating license in Burkino Faso took a significant hit to their share price and are still up by 6% since the offer date. Whilst AngloGold goes on walk abouts at a -9% level

If you convert to cash on completion of the offer and at todays prices Centamin shareholders would only receive £1.48 per share.


Vote NO............

[astjgroom] 07/10/2024 15:45

Voted no with 200k shares

[niklol] 07/10/2024 14:45

Voted against through HL

[niklol] 07/10/2024 14:44

Voted against through HL

[niklol] 07/10/2024 14:44

Voted against through HL

[larry laffer] 07/10/2024 12:48

Good man Arlington Chetwynd Talbott

A few more like you and the offer is history. In fact if every retail investor voted NO to the offer it would undoubtedly fail.


I’m voting NO for all the reasons I have listed previously. If anyone has a sensible alternative or an explanation of why I should vote for their offer I’m willing to listen.

[zangdook] 07/10/2024 12:31

AIUI it requires not only 75% of votes cast, but also 50% of the shareholders who vote, so we small PIs have an influence beyond the size of our holding.

i may be wrong, and I'm not sure how that works with nominees.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 07/10/2024 12:12

I have, courtesy of interactive investor, already voted all 22,730 shares, FWIW, against the two resolutions.

[cinquepercento] 07/10/2024 11:47

To Ebruss55,
Thank you,for your post above re:Takeover procedure,dates and options for Centamin .
Very helpful.
Cinquepercento.

[elbrus55] 07/10/2024 09:52

No need to do anything yet.There are shareholders' meetings on 28 October that will determine whether the takeover goes ahead. You should have a vote. Your broker should send you something or it will come in the post if you hold certificated shares. If it is approved (more than 75% of votes in favour) then there will still be about 3 weeks after that when you can sell your Centamin shares on the market. After about 20 November they will be de-listed and after a short administrative delay you will get AU shares (Depository Interests) instead and a little bit of cash.

[cinquepercento] 07/10/2024 08:38

To:Larry Laffer re:Anglo Gold proposed takeover:

Thank you,,for your very informative post above.

I don't have any voting rights as far as I know.

How would I reject the offer?

If I were able to reject the offer,what would happen then re:my Cey Shares.

I have been holding and trading Cey shares since 2012 but I have never had takeover issue to consider as far as I can remember.

Should I just sell all my Cey shares now?

Thanks,
Regards,
Cinquepercento

[larry laffer] 07/10/2024 08:15

Cinquepercento

If the takeover is completed Centamin’s shares will be cancelled and you will become the “proud” owner of a number of AngloGold shares, the ratio is in the offer document plus some cash. Centamin’s share price at present is a bit irrelevant. What counts at present is the AngloGold share price and the dollar pound exchange ratio for the cash part of the offer.


At the end of last week that meant for each Centamin share you hold you will only get £1.50, should you go to completion and exchange for all cash, not the £1.63 they quote in the offer document.

I’m voting NO to the offer……

Anyone thinking of taking the offer should have a look at Anglo’s growing debt pile, the ream of court cases they are involved in, the lack of in depth quality of their existing assets (high AISC in a number of mines).

The offer for Centamin is widely recognised as opportunistic and overvalues AngloGold whilst undervaluing all the potential Centamin has.

Reject the offer and reap the rewards you have paid for.

[84stewart] 07/10/2024 07:53

Depends on the price of Anglo when the split takes place ,but as they say cash is KING.

[cinquepercento] 07/10/2024 07:46

What happens to our Centamin shares and their value if this takeover goes through?
Will we Centamin shareholders gain or lose money on this deal?
Should we hold or sell now?

[1gw] 07/10/2024 07:30

Sancta Capital Advisors ("focused on special situations investing in the Middle East and North Africa") emerges as the biggest declared seller to date in % terms afaics after today disclosing a whole load of trades. Adding them up I calculate they sold almost exactly half their position between 11th September and 25th September, when they went under the 1% declaration threshold.

[jfishy55] 06/10/2024 15:39

Thanks for the info Larry. It is concerning that the the Anglo share price has been dropping since the announcement.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 05/10/2024 10:46

Absolutely voting it down so that AU makes a better offer or someone else steps in. Then I will exit - I have zero interest in becoming an AU shareholder.

[jfishy55] 04/10/2024 16:01

Is the consensus that the vote will pass then?

Seems likely as the board has recommended it...but I'm still hopeful another company will try and jump in to buy CEY thus driving the price higher :-)

Certainly been quite the ride - I think I started looking in 2004 and initially bought 10,000 at around 10p. It was quite the day a few years back when I earned more in a dividend for the original 10k then I'd paid :-)

[geckotheglorious] 04/10/2024 15:41

Also voting offer down for what it's worth.

Disappointing no signs of a counter bid.

Wonder why?

Political Risk
Not so enticing now it gives 50% to Egyptian govt.