Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[larry laffer] 26/9/2024 16:27

FFS 1gw are you real……

“ About 70% of shares were voted - that's around 820 million shares and all resolutions were supported by over 90% of the shares voted……”

What’s that got to do with the takeover offer. Voting for a non exec to retain his place on the board doesn’t indicate anything about accepting a takeover offer.

“The Centamin IR team will be ringing round institutional holders trying to secure their support……;…”


Maybe they should have done that before recommending acceptance. If that’s the case it’s an example of very amateurish behaviour by the management team.

[larry laffer] 26/9/2024 16:20

1gw

“ Are you for real?…………”

Very much so.

Are you some sort of chat bot ?

[1gw] 26/9/2024 14:24

Are you for real? Have a look at the last AGM voting. About 70% of shares were voted - that's around 820 million shares and all resolutions were supported by over 90% of the shares voted. The Centamin IR team will be ringing round institutional holders trying to secure their support and that is where the takeover vote will be decided (IMO). If there is a groundswell of opinion among the institutions that the offer is unacceptable then who knows, but I think those sorts of thing tend to leak to the press fairly quickly (because such a leak can then put pressure on the bidder to sweeten the offer). I see no evidence that there's any serious opposition to the deal among the institutional holders.

The pass mark for a scheme of arrangement is 75% of shares voted (and a majority in number of shareholders) so a relatively low bar. Smaller retail holders, such as myself, are going to be irrelevant to the vote (IMO) in the absence of serious institutional opposition unless someone goes to the time and expense of organising a shareholder action group and campaigning effectively to rally support.

If you want to know, personally so far I have sold around 40% of the shares I held at the time of the offer. I have held on to the rest for now because I am still hoping a counter-offer might emerge (or the gold price move even higher) but I have been attracted by the relatively low discount (around 2%) to the offer price and the relatively high price of gold (and GDX). I have a concern that the price of gold (and Anglogold) could easily pull back materially causing the offer price to fall. I have no interest at all in seeing the deal get voted down.

I achieved prices of 155p and 157p in my sales. The offer price is not 163p, it is a small amount of cash plus Anglogold paper so the offer price moves up and down in line with the Anglogold price and the exchange rate. As per my post above the Anglogold price appears to be tracking GDX fairly closely at the moment.

[larry laffer] 26/9/2024 13:48

1g

Here’s some of what you wrote.

“I really can't see any point (as a retail holder) in voting against the offer. What would that achieve?…̷0;.”


How do you expect the deal to get voted down if you don’t bother to vote.

Irrespective of which institutions are holding and how many it’s important to vote. Even more so in every case where no one has declared their intentions.

It is only when this lot see a ground swell of shareholders objecting to the offer will they be likely to consider an improved offer.


I assume you are a current holder and would hope you can tell me how much you will be getting for each Centamin share you hold. I will give you a clue it isn’t what they state in the offer document. It’s much less than that. Even in your own interest you should vote it down.

[1gw] 26/9/2024 13:44

AU looks to me to be tracking GDX, the gold miners ETF, pretty well.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

Over a longer time period (1 month) you can see the divergence when the bid was announced and the market marked it down.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[larry laffer] 26/9/2024 13:37

Kennyp52

If the deal drops through it will undoubtedly fall (100p I wish).

I would be in for a few more at that price.

I haven’t done the math yet but Anglogolds share price is beginning to look somewhat manipulated. How is it managing to stay at or about the offer price. It’s not tracking gold (or at least I don’t think it is).

How are the institutions happy with this (if they actually are) beggars belief.


I’m still holding out and voting the deal down.

[zangdook] 26/9/2024 10:34

What does the market know? Directors hold less than 1% and nothing else is certain. Often a buyer will get major shareholders to announce their acceptances in advance, to make others feel it's inescapable, but not here.

[1gw] 26/9/2024 10:07

My point wasn't about being happy with the deal or not, it was about being realistic as a retail holder in a company largely owned by institutions where the shareprice is closely tracking the offer price, at a very small discount (2% or so), meaning that the market expects the deal to go through (in my opinion).

[kennyp52] 26/9/2024 09:14

AU have already announced they have bought CEY .. it looks like a murky done deal to me?

Dividend tomorrow … last 1 for me unless the deal fails and share price drops to sub 100p and Horgan and the board are replaced !

[larry laffer] 25/9/2024 18:20

1gw

Isn't that one of the reasons it will be voted on to give everybody the choice.

If you are happy with the offer then vote for it.

I'm not and i will be voting it down. Someone published an analyst comments where he came out and said he thinks it is an opportunist deal that rewards AngloGold more than Centamin Shareholders. I share that view.

The offer is derisory bearing in mind the potential the company has for its assets. The board spent the last few years building that potential and bigging it up in RNS & AR's. Only to mysteriously completely reverse that view by reccomending a low ball offer. The board were rewarded well by the shareholders for their work. Just look at the options that Horgan & Jerrard were given. They obviously thought they were doing a fabulous job of positioning the company as a quality tier 1 asset. If that was true why sell the shareholders out now,


AngloGold are a company with

A poor divi pay out
A mountain, and rising, debt pile
A number of legal issues, some with the jurisdiction authorities which never bodes well for the future.
Assets with a bigger AISC than Sukari

They are looking to prop up the balance sheet by acquiring a tier 1 asset with a lot of potential.

Centamin shareholders have $200m in cash and liquid assets and AngloGold are using that cash pile to make their offer look better but its already yours as a shareholder. Turning down the offer means you keep that in the company and that means you as a shareholder.

A quick scan of AngloGolds last annual report should convince you to vote this down. I am.

[1gw] 25/9/2024 17:01

Do they ever if they're not inside and their support is announced along with the recommended deal? I would have thought we would hear only if a major shareholder, or an activist investor, came out against the deal, in which case others might weigh in with support. Otherwise I would expect just to see overwhelming support from those who can be bothered to vote when the results of the vote are announced.

The fact that the Centamin shareprice is consistently tracking the offer price with a discount of a couple of percent suggests the market thinks it's going through doesn't it?

[beeezzz] 25/9/2024 16:50

Decent volume today...I've not heard any major institution coming out in favour of this deal...has anyone.

[1gw] 25/9/2024 15:42

I really can't see any point (as a retail holder) in voting against the offer. What would that achieve?

I can see an argument for holding on in the hope that a counter-offer comes in. I can see an argument for taking the AU paper in order to participate in the Centamin asset upside should it materialise. I can see an argument for taking the money now and reinvesting somewhere else in the gold space if you want to retain the exposure.

And I can see quite a strong argument for taking the money and running with gold where it is (although obviously it could go higher). If you were holding Centamin as a bit of exposure to gold as diversification rather than because you're a goldbug then cashing in when gold has been on the run it has and another gold miner has made an offer seems to have some merit.

[larry laffer] 25/9/2024 15:26

Anglogold share price $28.835
GBPUSD Exchange rate 133.373

And whilst it stays like that everybody is underwater on the offer, you wont get what Anglogold claim with their offer i.e. £1.63.


Vote the offer down

[seanyboy] 25/9/2024 10:17

Yes no other bidder arriving surprises me as I was confident of a rival bid so maybe the offer is decent in any case I as a holder have taken no action

[sotolo] 25/9/2024 10:02

Gold price isn't the main point if walls collapse ounces fall costs rise and so profits tumble etc
In 2020 profits were 315m. Near double
Dividend was 15c near treble
Yet endeavour bid 25% less than Anglo now
So the board has done quite well as shown by no other bidder yet coming in methinks

[1gw] 24/9/2024 19:45

Chart showing the gold price in black against rebased Anglogold Ashanti in blue, Centamin in green and as a control VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) in red. Seems like CEY comes out OK on this thanks to the AU bid. The chart is over 1 year, but I think CEY comes out on top on a 3 month or 6 month basis as well.

I presume advfn rebases without converting for currency, so the strengthening £ over this period would mean CEY rebased to $ would look even better I think.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[redbaron10] 24/9/2024 19:09

Meanwhile the pog continues to rise..............

[redbaron10] 24/9/2024 18:48

Endeavour mining made a similar $1.9bn for Centamin 5 years ago, before inflation hit over 10% and the price of gold was a lot lower.What possessed management to accept this offer now unless there's something shareholders aren't being told? The company is debt free, so it isn't a distressed disposal,so what is the incentive here to accept the offer by the board? Beats me.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 24/9/2024 15:46

At $2645 gold, something has to give here. More shares for my reinvested dividend will be nice but AngloGold need to up the cash component if they want to nail CEY down. It is annoying to think that if AngloGold had never come near us we would probably be touching 150p right now. Their timing was annoyingly impeccable.

[kennyp52] 24/9/2024 07:53

Larry .. if this gets voted down where does that leave Horgan ? He would have to go along with the rest of the board that supported the deal . Why did they accept it .. they have not had the decency to explain to shareholders why they think this is a good deal . I can only think it benefits them personally more than the shareholders or one or two of the big institutional investors pushed for it . Either way for me they cannot be trusted now . This will have been due to massively re-rate on the opening of Doropo . I’ve sold it .. been here before and best to take the profit now trust has gone .

[bostanli] 24/9/2024 07:31

hxxps://www.zawya.com/en/projects/mining/egypt-to-sign-final-gold-mining-deal-with-2-western-firms-bu9pfpbl

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 24/9/2024 07:26

Why would someone tick that down?