Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[dudishes] 15/7/2020 17:20

azalea,
NS piece (by 3rd eye) was written for Shareprophets 13 Jul 20. I believe a true reflection, even though NS is a holder, as am I. T/O probably refers to failed attempt by Endeavour, last year.

cheers

[azalea] 15/7/2020 16:03

3rd eye
"without possible bid interest returning to the scene". When was the last time bid interest came on the scene?
The last broker's forecast that I saw was circa 225p

[3rd eye] 15/7/2020 15:53

CEY Centamin an update by one of the better Winnie Boys. On Share Prophets.

Centamin - Q2 report, well ahead on this tip but still a buy considers Nigel Somerville...

Fully-listed Egyptian gold miner Centamin (CEY) has produced its Q2 report and the numbers read well – the only thing missing was a hint as to the size of the forthcoming interim dividend. But despite the Covid crisis, Centamin is awash with cash and everything seems to be proceeding in line with expectations. Gold production was a little ahead of schedule at 131,000 oz, partly due to higher feed grades and partly due to the deferral of plant maintenance. Of course, the maintenance will still have to be done so the full year production forecast is largely unchanged, with guidance tweaked slightly to 510,000-525,000 oz from 510,000-540,000. The higher production led to a slight fall in costs of production, with cash costs down to $625 per oz from $642 and all-in costs of $900 per oz – down very marginally from $901...

Full-year costs remain forecast at $630-680 cash costs and $870-920 all in costs per ounce. With the gold price currently sitting at around $1800 per ounce, this looks excellent going forward. There is a small fly in the ointment in that Egypt’s mining authority’s profit share increased to 50-50 from 55-45 in favour of Centamin, but at least that new figure will not change going forward – so we are told! On the plus side, the gold price was well up and Centamin achieved an average sale price for gold of $1731 (32% up year-on-year) and adjusted free cash flow over the quarter came in at plus $56 million, up 196% year on year. As for the balance sheet, we are told that as at 30 June the company had cash and liquid assets of $367 million, following payment of the last dividend (costing $69 million).

The good news on the interim dividend is that there will be one, but there was no hint as to its magnitude. However, we know that at the close of 2019 cash and liquid assets stood at $348.9 million, which left room for a dividend (originally final, but commuted to interim in light of Covid difficulties in getting the AGM sorted) of 6 US cents per share. That would suggest there is room for the same again when the company delivers its interims on August 4th. Here’s hoping…..

Reading the announcement, it is clear that Centamin is awash with cash and with the gold price still moving northwards there is plenty of scope to hike the dividend materially even with a conservative view when it comes to leaving the company financially safe from the Covid virus. I would not be surprised to see the total dividend for this year coming in at 15-20 US cents which, even at the lower figure, would leave the shares (up a smidgeon at 192p, last seen) offering a potential forward yield of 6.2%, which is not to be sneezed at. With a tailwind for gold prices well in place, there is plenty of upside to be had here and my stance is buy at up to £2 with a target raised to £2.50 even without possible bid interest returning to the scene. Roll on the interims, when we will see a more comprehensive balance sheet and income statement - and the proposed interim dividend.

[azalea] 15/7/2020 14:01

Indeed. Time will tell. While we wait, it will be interesting to see how the indexes fare for the rest of the month.

[azalea] 15/7/2020 13:09

Umat---- -35% unlikely

I know, but if you haven't already done so, if you were to Google Stephen Roach, you will see this man has a significant career record. Also you could read his statement-

"In Covid era everything unfolds at warp speed".

A later comment on him reads, he now stresses that his forecast may happen "sooner rather than later".

Whilst no other pundit to my knowledge has given a % fall, he is not alone in forecasting a fall in the value of the dollar and directly linking it to a rise in the p.o.g. I believe the trigger for the dollar to experience a significant fall in value, will be an even more serious downturn in the U.S. economy brought about by a continuing unchecked Covid-!9 rampage across America.

[stevedaytrader] 15/7/2020 13:02

dow and s and p futures up, open above 27k and 3.2k

[kennyp52] 15/7/2020 11:40

Question martinfrench ... dividends paid in £ for me

[martinfrench] 15/7/2020 11:11

was that a question kenny or a statement ?

azalea,

i would be truly shocked beyond belief if the dollar falls by 35%, pretty sure that wont happen. If it did, the effects on inflation, not just US would be ridiculous, and all commods would be off the charts

you do realise these sites you quote from are mostly attention seeking people driving traffic ?

[azalea] 15/7/2020 11:08

Whilst U.S. company giants who have reported positive Q2 results this week, all added a qualifying cautionary note for future results, based on the increasing negative effects of the virus on the US economy as a whole.

[kennyp52] 15/7/2020 11:07

Just a point if POG goes higher but $ lower then good is traded in $ ? Effect ?

[kennyp52] 15/7/2020 11:05

Umatingtribe... Egypt .. things move slowly and we are in prime position . Great record on employing and supporting local communities . The interesting thing is if they offer licenses on lower profit share terms than that of CEY then they may have to renegotiate a better deal with us - I think just conjecture. But we already have significant access to resources on our doorstep / part of the existing Sukari mine ...

Cleopatra Exploration and Development Decline (“Cleo Decline”), Sukari Gold Mine
Located at the north of the Sukari porphyry, the Cleo Decline has been engineered to 1Mtpa material movement capacity. This decline provides exploration access into the Cleopatra zones, as another potential source of high-grade ore to the existing plant and to provide alternative access to the high-grade deeper levels of Ptah.

Burkino Faso is being developed slowly but I’d see maybe a JV arrangement to get on with mining it - this is moving slowly but also has huge potential . And of course we have the cash to do it if a JV is not wanted.

Solar plant savings are substantial and the key thing is continuity of power .

[martinfrench] 15/7/2020 09:48

if gold is going to go to $2000 which it almost certainly will in 12 months or less, we really need a dollar value of around 93 ish

[azalea] 15/7/2020 09:47

Umat---
No worries I'm a big boy. Moving on to matters of importance - the value of the dollar. The movement of the latter is one of the crucial factors in determining the direction of the p.o.g. Given Fx involves trillions of dollars, even a small down turn
has its consequences. In recalling pundit Stephen Roach's forecasting the value of the dollar will fall by 35%, the consequences and ramifications are truly immense.

[martinfrench] 15/7/2020 08:53

More importantly, dollar index just slipped below 96, by a decent amount,often takes bit of time to translate but this might be the catalyst hd needs for next leg up

I'm sure Azalea will dig out a video explaining why

[azalea] 15/7/2020 08:24

Pundit, Frank Holmes, CEO Global Investors, on You Tube speaking in the last 24hrs. We will see p.o.g, easily reach $2000 in 2020. Worth listening to.

[martinfrench] 14/7/2020 21:05

Your own thoughts or just another copy and paste job ?